Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[mvd10]

Peil.nl released another weekly poll. They polled the coalition agreement and it looks like most of the plans are supported. The least popular plan is increasing the VAT to pay for income tax cuts which is only supported by VVD voters. Repealing the dividend tax and reduces corporate taxes also aren't very popular, but they still score decently (especially with VVD voters).

They also looked at the differences between people who voted for VVD/CDA/D66 in March but would vote for a different party now. People who voted VVD in March bute would vote for something else today are much more supportive of referendums (VVD-FvD voters I suppose), the same goes for CDA voters. D66 voters who left mainly left because the next coalition won't pass a new euthanasia law.

They also did a poll on Rutte's approval rating, it's 44% (which is quite decent, I suspect he was much lower in 2013/2014). The most surprising thing is that only 42% of CDA voters approves of Rutte. This probably is because of Buma's hard opposition to Rutte 2 and his recent criticisms of liberalism and individualism. The poll last week also showed that CDA voters were much more likely to agree with statements like "market liberalization has gone too far" or "the pension age should be reduced to 65" than VVD or even D66 voters. It seems like Buma has transformed the party into a more nationalist and conservative party which is critical of both left-wing social policies and laissez-faire capitalism. Electorally this probably is a smart thing (as there is a lot of electoral space for these policies) but it looks like it wasn't enough to prevent CDA voters from leaving to FvD.

[mvd10]

Halbe Zijlstra (currently VVD parliamentary leader) will become Foreign Affairs Minister while Eric Wiebes (also VVD, currently State Secretary of Finance) will become Economic Affairs and Climate Minister according to De Telegraaf. Especially Wiebes' appointment is surprising as one would have expected D66 or CU to claim the Climate Ministry because of their green credentials.

[mvd10]

Ollongren probably will get Education or something like that. Maybe even Interior. I've heard that people in Amsterdam aren't terribly enthusiastic about her, so that probably explains why she'll get a second tier Ministry. I think Wouter Koolmees' future position is more interesting, he was D66's candidate for the Finance Ministry so they clearly see something in him.

Anyway, I'm not really sure whether Wiebes at Climate will make a huge difference. People always say that personnel is policy, but the coalition agreement is quite clear on climate issues. Wiebes also is one of the more left-wing VVD politicians (like Winsemius or Nijpels, his predecessors as VVD climate/environment ministers) so he's probably pretty close to D66. Anyway, I'm somewhat progressive on environmental issues so I don't really care (though I oppose GL's radical changes and tax increases I support a green tax shift and investing in clean energy).

Ideologically I should be thrilled with someone like Zijlstra at Foreign Affairs (like David said: he's quite a hawk), but I wonder why they didn't just appoint ten Broeke. Ten Broeke is extremely qualified for the role and I don't think his foreign policy views are much different from Zijlstra's (I've read his article on foreign policy). Meanwhile Zijlstra doesn't really have any foreign policy experience. Anyway, I shouldn't complain. Atleast it's not Kaag or Stienen (D66). And being Foreign Affairs Minister probably helps Zijlstra's chances to be the next VVD leader, but that doesn't really matter because the other candidate (Dijkhoff) is just as awesome .

[mvd10]

I wouldn't be surprised if Ten Broeke goes to Brussels in 2019 as MEP (just like Hans van Baalen in 2009). He would be a great addition to the Foreign Affairs Committee there. He could still become State Secretary btw. Probably not Foreign Affairs as there already is a VVD Minister there (and parties usually don't get both the State Secretary and the Minister) but if Defence goes to the CDA he could be State Secretary of Defence. Or he could even become Defence Minister, but that's also unlikely as it's very rare for 1 party to hold both the Defence and Foreign Affairs portfolio (just like the economic portfolios are divided pretty evenly between the coalition partners).

[mvd10]

And being Foreign Affairs Minister probably helps Zijlstra's chances to be the next VVD leader, but that doesn't really matter because the other candidate (Dijkhoff) is just as awesome .

Maybe I've missed it in the thread, but will Dijkhoff keep an important position in the new cabinet? Danish Minister of Immigration Inger Støjberg has talked about a close relationsship with him and the Belgian Immigration Minister Theo Francken, so I guess he is among the hardliners in VVD on immigration?

Dijkhoff will be parliamentary leader of the VVD, a position which allows him to stay in the spotlight and raise his profile. Zijlstra was parliamentary leader from 2012 to 2017 and regularly made headlines with right-wing statements (and pre-Dijkhoff he and Schippers were the main candidates to take over from Rutte), and his work got rewarded with the Foreign Affairs portfolio.

I'm not sure whether I'd call Dijkhoff a hardliner on immigration/asylum, but the VVD is pretty right-wing on those issues anyway (or they pretend to be in their campaigns) so it's quite logical that Dijkhoff is closely allied to Francken and the Danish Minister on asylum issues.

Zijlstra definitely is one of the most right-wing VVD politicians there is. I expect him to push for more "Turkey-deals" with African countries in order to reduce asylum flows to Europe. I'm not sure what CU and D66 think about this appointment, Zijlstra will probably pursue a more realist foreign policy and he definitely will make some comments that will make the more leftist elements of CU and D66 cringe.

[mvd10]

The youth wing of the CDA criticized the coalition agreement and said that they won't support the coalition unless student loans are replaced with study grants (like we used to have). CDJA said that it's unacceptable that foreign investors get a 1.5 billion tax cut through the repeal of the dividend tax while students have to take out huge loans to pay for their tuition.

[rant]Since the next coalition will increase spending by a huge amount (8 billion euros, which is more than the planned tax cut) I think it makes more sense to slow down those huge spending increases instead of not repealing a horribly inefficient (and probably illegal) tax, especially if you are a member of a party that ferociously opposed a left-wing coalition. But that's just my neoliberal opinion.[/rant]

Anyway, it does surprise me how this coalition manages to splurge 14 billion euros (!) while still pissing off a lot of people by not fulfilling their election promises. It's just never enough .

[mvd10]

Tuition fees for first-year students will be cut in half, but it's still relatively meagre compared to what CDA promised during the campaign. D66 is one of the biggest supporters of the current student loan system btw, so don't expect much changes from them.

[mvd10]

Other Ministers also have leaked:

D66 Alderwoman in Amsterdam Kajsa Ollongren, for Interior and Deputy PM
CU MP Carola Schouten for Healthcare and Deputy PM
CDA Alderman in Rotterdam Hugo de Jonge for Elderly Care and Deputy PM
CDA King's Commissioner (head of provincial government) in Overijssel, Ank Bijleveld for Defence
CDA lawyer and professor Ferdinand Grapperhaus for Justice
VVD State Secretary of Education Sander Dekker for Security (this one isn't 100% certain yet)
D66 MP Wouter Koolmees for Social Affairs
CU Mayor of Deventer Andries Heidema for Agriculture (also not 100% certain)

This also is an interesting interview with Ferdinand Grapperhaus. He seems to be quite critical of market liberalization and deregulation. But it won't really matter as he won't get an economic portfolio. It's from the Reformatorisch Dagblad so it's not available on Sundays (don't worry, they're quite good). I won't bother to translate it in Dutch btw, google translate is your best friend .

If we fill in the blanks we get something like this:

VVD
PM: Mark Rutte
Foreign Affairs: Halbe Zijlstra
Economic Affairs: Eric Wiebes
Security: Sander Dekker
Education #1:
Infrastructure:
CDA
Elderly Care & Deputy PM: Hugo de Jonge
Finance: Wopke Hoekstra
Defence: Ank Bijleveld
Justice: Ferdinand Grapperhaus
D66
Interior & Deputy PM: Kajsa Ollongren
Social Affairs: Wouter Koolmees
Education #2: Probably Ingrid van Engelshoven
International Trade & Development Aid:
CU
Healthcare & Deputy PM: Carola Schouten
Agriculture: Andries Heidema

EDIT: omg I finally know how to get the smiley. I'm so happy now . I didn't know 3x ? gave you , so it was an accident

[mvd10]

I doubt Kaag would bother leaving her current UN job for Development Aid. Maybe she would have done it for Foreign Affairs, but Development Aid would be a huge step down. I think Petra Stienen is more likely (also D66). They'll surely find some random diplomat for the post (how many diplomats vote D66? 90% of them or so?).

Apparently Bijleveld has done a good job in Overijssel, but I agree that they should have appointed someone with experience there as Defence Minister. Someone like Raymond Knops or even my boy Han ten Broeke (he is chair of the parliamentary Defence Committee). Bijleveld would have been a good pick for Interior or even Security though.

Some reports from yesterday turned out to be false (or maybe the reports from today are false?). Now they say that Carola Schouten (CU) will get Agriculture while Slob (also CU) will get Education #2. I'm inclined to believe today's reports, Heidema (CU, mentioned yesterday) doesn't really have an obvious link with Agriculture and Schouten and Slob have been constantly mentioned as CU Ministerial candidates since March. I assume this means Healthcare will go to the VVD instead of Education (which now goes to Slob).

Malik Azmani probably will become State Secretary of Immigration, and he definitely is a hardliner on these issues. Francken and the Danish Minister won't lose their Dutch ally .

[mvd10]

Our new CDA (!) Minister of Justice seems to have a very #woke Twitter account lol.

(zo is het = that's how it is)

He reminds me of my old social science teacher in high school. The man was so obviously left-wing on everything but he somehow voted CDA. It seems like we've found the Dutch version of Badger (assuming his Republican avatar indeed is unironical).

There also are some interesting tweets about Rutte (comparing his austerity policies to sh**tty tape), Pechtold ("political weather vane"), Wilders (illiterate), far-right voters (also illiterate) and Grolsch beer (assholes without compassion who are even more tasteless than the beer they brew). I hope he continues tweeting .

[mvd10]

It's an entirely valid point of view, that's not what I meant (though I personally believe income/wealth inequality isn't a huge issue in the Netherlands, but I'm not sure whether Grapperhaus was referring to the US or to the Netherlands with his tweet). I meant that it's a surprising thing to tweet for a CDA politician, especially since the CDA has been shifting to the right under Buma. And it's even more ironic considering that he is going to be part of a government which will repeal the dividend tax and reduce corporate taxes.

[mvd10]

According to RTL these politicians will be the new State Secretaries (deputy ministers):
VVD
MP Mark Harbers for Immigration
MP Barbara Visser for Defence
MP Tamara van Ark for Social Affairs
CDA
MP Raymond Knops for Interior (he was also in the running to be Defence Minister, but apparently they wanted someone more experienced)
MP Mona Keijzer for (I'm surprised she didn't become Minister, she is one of the most prominent CDA MP's)
D66
MP Kees Verhoeven for
MP Vera Bergkamp for
CU
Zwolle Alderman Ed Anker or MP Joël Voordewind for (I suspect they only consider Voordewind to prevent him from making any trouble as a MP)

4 men, 4 women. Anyway, these only are rumours, but it looks like a believable list. I wonder who becomes State Secretary of Finance though. Steven van Weyenberg (D66) was mentioned a couple of days ago but he isn't on this list. VVD MP Malik Azmani not becoming State Secretary of Immigration also is surprising, I thought he was the perfect candidate for the role. Mark Harbers was Finance spokesperson as a MP, I'm not sure why they're giving him the Immigration spot. Maybe they want to reward him like they rewarded Zijlstra?

[mvd10]

Sigrid Kaag (D66 member and UN diplomat) will be the second Minister at the Foreign Affairs department. Normally this would mean that she'll become the Trade & Development Aid Minister, but RTL says that the division of roles between her and Zijlstra is yet to be decided (which seems to imply that she will have more responsibilities than Ploumen or Koenders when they were Development Aid Ministers). RIP DavidB .

[mvd10]

In the next election it seems the FvD will become much bigger, just wondering whether the PVV and FvD have some sort of "understanding" as they have similar views with the exception of the economics.

Also is the relationship cordial with Wilders and Baudet? Both of them seem to have big personalities, especially compared to other party leaders.

I don't think economics will be a dealbreaker anyway. Baudet barely talks about it and lately he voted for a motion that encouraged the government to scrap the VAT increase on food, books and labour intensive services paid for by scrapping business tax cuts.

I'm not sure on the exact details of the relationship between Baudet and Wilders. But Wilders doesn't allow anyone else to become PVV member and he also keeps an extremely strong hold on the PVV, Wilders is the boss and almost nobody else holds any form of power within the PVV (maybe Bosma or Agema but that's it). He claims to do this because he's afraid of LPF-like scandals (when Fortuyn died 70% of the LPF MP's turned out to be incompetent and downright dangerous criminals lol), but a lot of people think he also does this because he's afraid of any potential internal competitor. This probably tells us how he looks at potential competitors .

The FvD's party structure also is a lot different from the PVV's party structure. FvD is a very open party, you can join the party and they hold a lot of events (usually attended by either Baudet himself or Hiddema). There are a lot of internal debates. This is a huge contrast to the PVV's extremely closed structure.

I also doubt whether an understanding will be of much use. The PVV will never be in government again after the 2012 budget talks and their radicalization in the years after it. And I don't think the FvD is particularly interested in governing either. Personally I would be very interested in a VVD-CDA-D66-FvD coalition but such a coalition would never work because of the differences between FvD and D66 on Europe and because of the FvD's attacks on the "party cartel" in general. FvD might (and this is a very small chance) work with VVD, CDA and the smaller Christian parties but these parties definitely won't have a majority. For a majority you'll either need to add D66 (won't work with FvD) or PVV (VVD/CDA never want to work with Wilders again). The only way I could see FvD entering government is if they become the biggest party, but despite the Baudet hype I doubt they'll ever become the biggest party. I suspect Wilders will remain in politics for quite a while and Wilders has a core base that the FvD probably needs to win in order to become the biggest party but won't vote for anyone other than Wilders.

The closest thing the FvD can come to governing is the other parties implementing their proposal of a nonpartisan technocratic so-called "business government" (zakenkabinet in Dutch, idk what the right translation is) which will consist out of nonpartisan experts who'll seek a different majority on each issue (pretty ironic that a right-wing populist is suggesting this as I suspect a government like this will basically implement D66's election manifesto minus their leftish stances on immigration).

If you mean understanding as in not attacking each other, I'm not sure whether there is need for an understanding. Baudet's main talking point is breaking the "party cartel" (the parties which have been ruling the Netherlands since forever, basically VVD-CDA-PvdA and to a lesser extent D66 and GL), and the PVV definitely isn't part of that party cartel. Wilders probably will start attacking Baudet once FvD comes close to the PVV in terms of seats (and maybe Baudet will start attacking Wilders for being in eternal opposition once Baudet sees actual possibilities of winning the elections).

Another interesting thing to note is that FvD will run together with Leefbaar Rotterdam (local right-wing party in Rotterdam) in the Rotterdam municipal elections instead of running separately or even running with the PVV. They announced this not long after the PVV announced they would run against Leefbaar in the Rotterdam municipal elections (which is really, really, realy stupid as splitting the right is the best way to ensure the right won't be in government again in Rotterdam, even though they did a decent job at governing). FvD and Baudet see themselves as the true heirs of Fortuyn (instead of Wilders), and whatever is left of the Fortuyn loyalists seems to agree with Baudet and the FvD.