US House Redistricting: Ohio

[Torie]

When looking at this map, I stand humbly before my God.  The image to me is transfixing. It contains so much information on so many levels.  For starters, for this neck of the woods, just look how seamless the muni boundaries track SES, partisan affiliation, and yes race.  I drew the boundaries ignoring muni boundaries really, and just look, just look, how almost precisely I followed them! What does that tell you?  And thanks Dave Bradlee for putting up the municipal lines so that what is in my mind, is now revealed!



I am putting this up as the final image of my Dem pack, before I do the calcs to know how many Pubbie points I have to spread around in the balance, to know more clearly the parameters for the Pubbie CD's of the Goldilocks zone. That zone varies from state to state.

[Torie]

Torie: if the VRA doesn't apply in Ohio why did you put so much time and effort into making OH-11 majority Black?

Only the preclearance requirement doesn't apply.

It's a combo of political expedience (the GOP-black politician entrepreneur alliance thing on this decennial gerry thing is always fascinating to watch), and legal caution, so it is a done deal, that unless the OH-11 prong to Akron itself makes the map vulnerable (no it does not) of course it will be done by the Pubbies!  So let it be done; it is so written.

[Torie]

I am pretty confident now that the GOP can safely hold the Dems to 3 seats in Ohio. I have mapped it out. By the way, after some further massaging, OH-16 in its Cuyahoga portion, about 200,000 voters, is close to even in its Obama-McCain numbers. To do that, I had to explore Toledo in more depth, and found about 15 precincts to chop out of OH-09, that escaped me, because you have to cut through an anti Pubbie precinct to get to them. That was key. It allowed me to cut out 15 60% plus Obama precincts from OH-16, and dump them into OH-09 in turn. It rather magically unlocked another Pubbie point that I did not know was there. It does make the Toledo look like somebody stabbed it on the south side of the city, but stuff happens. And the partisan numbers for the entirety of OH-16 should be about spot on, and quite safe for the Pubbie. Sutton will move on to other work; he will not have a chance. So the twin termination of Sutton and Kucinich is a done deal, as long as you go for the max (yes, you have to have erose lines; deal with it, and it will happen). Now I am mapping out the attack on Columbus. I have carved out the max Pubbie areas to append to the four CD's which will do the quad chop on Columbus. This map I suspect will be pretty air tight. Stay tuned.

As a lagniappe, here is what I think is my final for OH-16. It's just beautiful, perfect!  I spent a lot of time on it, and it paid off I think. And notice that how it ends up looking square. That is important. I massage stuff, to make it seem like this is the map that should be drawn, following county lines meticulously (unless it is necessary not to, to get the partisan numbers where I want them, or of course it is a Dem pack CD! Or if the need to spread the Pubbie PVI just right requires a bichop or trichop, or there is no other way to get the partisan numbers into the sweet spot.

The goal of course is to max the odds that Obama, even if he wins re-election, will for the balance of his tenure, have to deal with a GOP House. And that is my goal, and if I have any influence at all, I hope to increase the odds a tad that that will happen. I mean that.

[Torie]

I am pretty confident now that the GOP can safely hold the Dems to 3 seats in Ohio. I have mapped it out. By the way, after some further massaging, OH-16 in its Cuyahoga portion, about 200,000 voters, is close to even in its Obama-McCain numbers. The partisan numbers for the entirety of OH-16 should be about spot on, and quite safe for the Pubbie. Sutton will move on to other work; he will not have a chance. So the twin termination of Sutton and Kucinich is a done deal, as long as you go for the max (yes, you have to have erose lines; deal with it, and it will happen). Now I am mapping out the attack on Columbus. I have carved out the max Pubbie areas to append to the four CD's which will do the quad chop on Columbus. This map I suspect will be pretty air tight. Stay tuned.

As a lagniappe, here is what I think is my final for OH-16. It's just beautiful, perfect!  I spent a lot of time on it, and it paid off I think.  And notice that how it ends up looking square. That is important. I massage stuff, to make it seem like this is the map that should be drawn, following county lines meticulously (unless it is necessary not to, to get the numbers where I want them, unless of course it is a Dem pack CD! Or the need to spread the Pubbie PVI just right requires a bichop or trichop, or there is no other way to get the partisan numbers into the sweet spot).

I had to do a number on Toledo to get there, because I wanted to get about fifteen 60% plus Obama precincts out of OH-16, and to do that, I needed to cut into Toledo some more vis a vis OH-09. So looking more closely, I found that if you stab trough a heavy Omaba precinct on Toledo's south side, on the other side of it is this linear line of GOP plus PVI precincts or close to it, running almost all the way to the Lucas County line to the east. So now Toledo has been stabbed; it's dead.

One other minor detail. Kaptur has lost so many precincts in Lucas, that I wonder if Sutton will challenge her in a primary. The center of gravity of OH-09 is not really in Lucas County anymore. It is more Cuyahoga oriented. I just stripped Lucas County to death. The key might be the Dem precincts in OH-09 in Lorain County;will they go to Sutton or Kaptur? It would be a delightful bonus if Kaptur is tanked. I can't think of one public issue as to which I agree with her. It is pretty much the null set.

[Torie]

We don't want him to by "Folyized."

My linguistic sensibilities demand "Foleyfied".

Thank you. Among other things, I realized I dropped an "e,"  but decided to let you point that out for me. Thanks again! 

[Torie]

Okay, I admit I framed this answer that way largely for aesthetic reasons. Kaptur would beat Kucinich, and Sutton is, I think, in your lawngreen pubbie seat, but near the Akron end.

Dennis's home base in that south Cleveland box (and elsewhere along the Dem pack southern borderland in Cuyahoga is now largely in OH-11). Much of the rest, is now in OH-16. Sutton per your comment does indeed live in the wrong zip code. But having said that,  the most Dem precincts in Dennis land are now in OH-09. Can Kaptur really appeal to all those voters in Cleveland and Lakewood?  Maybe Sutton will move. And/or Dennis will move, but Dennis is done. He won't get any votes in Lucas, except a few odd nutters, in a Dem primary.

[Torie]

Here is the number I did on Kaptur, in Kapturville; cruel really.

[Torie]

I am pretty confident now that the GOP can safely hold the Dems to 3 seats in Ohio. I have mapped it out. By the way, after some further massaging, OH-16 in its Cuyahoga portion, about 200,000 voters, is close to even in its Obama-McCain numbers. The partisan numbers for the entirety of OH-16 are about spot on, and should be quite safe for the Pubbie. We broke through the GOP +4% PVI barrier (close to 5 now that Wayne County faxed me the 2008 precinct numbers so I was not constrained to having to interpolate from the 2010 precinct numbers, plus I missed the town of Rittman, now added, which was worth about 25 basis points to the cause, and had OH-09's Parma precincts in the OH-16 totals by mistake, and excising them added another 25 basis points), which is the goal. Sutton should move on to other work; he probably will not have a chance. So the twin termination of Sutton and Kucinich is a done deal, as long as you go for the max (yes, you have to have erose lines; deal with it, and it will happen). Now I am mapping out the attack on Columbus. I have carved out the max Pubbie areas to append to the four CD's which will do the quad chop on Columbus. This map I suspect will be pretty air tight. Stay tuned.

As a lagniappe, here is what I think is my final for OH-16. It's just beautiful, perfect!  I spent a lot of time on it, and it paid off I think.  And notice that how it ends up looking square. That is important. I massage stuff, to make it seem like this is the map that should be drawn, following county lines meticulously (unless it is necessary not to, to get the numbers where I want them, unless of course it is a Dem pack CD! Or the need to spread the Pubbie PVI just right requires a bichop or trichop, or there is no other way to get the partisan numbers into the sweet spot).

I had to do a number on Toledo to get there, because I wanted to get about fifteen 60% plus Obama precincts out of OH-16, and to do that, I needed to cut into Toledo some more vis a vis OH-09. So looking more closely, I found that if you stab trough a heavy Omaba precinct on Toledo's south side, on the other side of it is this linear line of GOP plus PVI precincts or close to it, running almost all the way to the Lucas County line to the east. So now Toledo has been stabbed; it's dead.

One other minor detail. Kaptur has lost so many precincts in Lucas, that I wonder if Sutton will challenge her in a primary. The center of gravity of OH-09 is not really in Lucas County anymore. It is more Cuyahoga/Lorain oriented. I just stripped Lucas County to death. The key might be the Dem precincts in OH-09 in Lorain County;will they go to Sutton or Kaptur? It would be a delightful bonus if Kaptur is tanked. I can't think of one public issue as to which I agree with her. It is pretty much the null set.

By the way, notice the huge turnout! Ohio was viewed as close to ground zero in 2008, along with a couple of other states, and both parties really pushed the numbers up hard. Interesting.

[Torie]

Interestingly, Stu Rothenburg pegs Renacci as a weak incumbent who benefited inordinately from the wave. He also picks out Buerkle and Ellmers as behaving like one-term wonders, and Dold and Meehan as strong reps.

This is the best we can do for him. Every precinct, every precinct, has been picked to max his GOP numbers (subject to  his CD not interfering with the larger scheme of leashing the Dems to 3 CD's in Ohio). I think it should be enough to scare away a serious Dem predator. Oh wait, I have not included OH-16's portion of Lorain County into the stats yet! My bad! Stay tuned.

[Torie]

Torie, are you sending the maps you make to the people that decide redistricting, at all?

Yes, that is the intent. I have been so busy lately with my real estate projects and the WSJ article thing, that I have not yet submitted any. The first one to submit is Indiana, which is in final form using the census numbers. For PA, I was hoping for partisan numbers to be entered into the Bradlee software, to update my map with the census numbers. But that one is a bear. The only CD I have updated is of course my signature one, mentioned in the WSJ article, PA-14. Wisconsin is finished too, but I am not sure I have the final census numbers, or just the updated ACS numbers or whatever it's called. Ditto for Michigan. It will be interesting to see how close the maps adopted are to mine. I suspect they will be pretty close!  The big imponderable is how to do the Columbus chop in Ohio. That will take a lot of thought - and sensitivity.

And I am pretty good at getting folks to listen to me. I am very pushy!

[Torie]

Well guys, that is fine if you think Renacci will be bagged. Hopefully you will be successful in persuading the Dems to dump several million into OH-16 trying. Go for it!  In the meantime, notice that I have OH-16's GOP PVI almost up to 5 now; +4.92% to be exact.

Oh, and OH-11 clocks in at 84% Obama. In fact, there are about 10 precincts in Cleveland  where McCain got zero votes, zip, nada, nothing.  And these are real precincts of some size (you know like 592 Obama, 0 McCain sort of thing). You would thing at least a voter or two, would just have punched the wrong box by mistake, but no they didn't. Sad.

In any event, with any luck the 3 Dem pack CD's will hit 70% or maybe even exceed it, and that would be a beautiful thing.

Here is my latest innovation in matrix charting. The key number to look at is the bolded one in the bottom right hand corner. As we draw the CD's, probably in the order that I listed them going forward, that number will more and more represent the GOP PVI for it's quad chop of Columbus. It would be nice by the time we get down to the four quad chop CD's if that number were around a 5% GOP PVI, with 5.5% or even 6.0% just that much better. The next CD to do the calculations on is OH-14, which I suspect will have a GOP of  2%-3% or so perhaps [it is GOP PVI +4.01%], pushing the number in the lower right hand corner up a tad, and then of course it will go up to the zone it will more or less stay in, after the numbers from the two remaining Dem pack CD's, OH-13 and OH-09, are calculated. It should be interesting. This will give us close to the final answer as to the prudence of the GOP's apparently planned quad chop of Columbus.

[Torie]

The final GOP PVI with which to beef up OH-01 and effect the quad chop of Columbus is GOP +6.7%. Not bad - not bad at all. The GOP plan is going to work!  

And now OH-10 is tentatively completed, as I dump into it the most marginal counties as it approaches the "Big C,"  saving the most heavily Pubbie zones for the task ahead.

[Torie]

Do you have 2004 Bush/Kerry numbers for your OH-6? Four of those counties swung away from the Dems between 2004 and 2008, and the Obama Presidential numbers in Appalachia (which the non-Canton parts of the district are) don't correlate well with congressional voting.

I don't, but they would be easy to generate, since OH-10 is mostly whole counties (unusual for me I know).  But the Charlie Cook PVI for the old OH-18 was +7 GOP for 2008, and +15 GOP for 2004, so the swing against McCain was 8 points versus 5 for the nation, and my version of OH-10 takes in territory that is not all that different from the old OH-18.  It could be Pubbied up a bit more, by taking in the south central Ohio white zone (in lieu of Ross and Pike Counties, but I might want that white territory for other purposes, when I play my games with the Cincinnati area. What to do about that Schmidt woman is going to be a headache. Is there any way to get her to retire I wonder?  She is crimping my act a bit, and I am casting covetous eyes on some of her suburban Cincy territory.

[Torie]

Johnson's district is no more McCainish than Renacci's, on less traditional Republican territory. How do commentators and whatnot peg Johnson so far? Strong? Weak?
At least he doesn't have Renacci's problem of a competent Democratic incumbent. Your OH-16 sort of has PA-17 written all over it if things go even a tiny bit of wrong.

OH-16 cannot get any more Pubbie - period. It's boxed. Well, I suppose you could do something crazy, and have OH-05 go into Cuyahoga to grab some of OH-16's precincts in the south central zone of Cuyahoga, and some of Rennaci's home county of Medina, and than have OH-16 grab the rest of Wayne, and steal Gibbs' home county of Holmes (his CD is my OH-10), but that is just not happening. If Renacci loses, some Pubbie down the road will probably take out Sutton. And while Sutton is in, he will have to vote a lot like Altmire, or he will be bagged in short order. So don't worry, be happy. All is well with the world. This game is about affecting public policy, as much as GOP numbers, and this gets the job done I think.

Pubbieing up OH-16 also degrades some of the Pubbie muscle tone I need for the karate chop on Columbus, and I am very protective of that muscle tone - very protective. I want the quad chop CD's to have GOP PVI's of 6+, and I mean to get there.

[Torie]

Johnson's district is no more McCainish than Renacci's, on less traditional Republican territory. How do commentators and whatnot peg Johnson so far? Strong? Weak?
At least he doesn't have Renacci's problem of a competent Democratic incumbent. Your OH-16 sort of has PA-17 written all over it if things go even a tiny bit of wrong.

Oh, yes, OH-06 has heavily GOP suburban Canton, and somewhat less heavily GOP south suburban Akron, and that has been "traditionally Pubbie" since about 1856.

[Torie]

Oh, yes, OH-06 has heavily GOP suburban Canton, and somewhat less heavily GOP south suburban Akron, and that has been "traditionally Pubbie" since about 1856.

I don't understand, then. If it's so heavily Pubbie, why is it when combined with traditionally Democratic Appalachian areas that swung to McCain in '08, it's only at 51% McCain?

Because almost everything else in OH-06 is marginal in PVI terms (mostly the tonier suburban areas of Youngstown and Warren (well as tony as it gets for that metro zone, which ain't much), except for Columbia County, or leans Dem PVI, such as Jefferson and Monroe Counties, or is heavily Dem, to wit Belmont County. 

[Torie]

You're right about Johnson getting areas around Canton, of course. Forgot to take that into account. (And for the last time: Betty Sutton takes the female third person personal pronoun. )
It does make me wonder, but this is really for after your map is finished: What's the safest map that R's can draw themselves, chopping Columbus but throwing one of their northern congresscritters under the bus and eliminating only one of Sutton and Kucinich (I presume that would end up drawing them into a single district together)? As I said, for afterwards. Please finish this. I ask mostly because it does seem quite possible that the three northern D's plan would be rejected as too dangerous, if this is the best you can do.
(The Columbus chop is a necessary condition to any 4 northern Ds map, obviously - the GOP is not going to voluntarily give up both abolished seats.)

Hey, where does Mrs. Sutton live again? Was it west suburban Akron?  I tell you what I'm going to do if that is so - I will move her to OH-13 (heck she already may have been put there, but I doubt that she lives in the rattier burbs of Akron, much less Akron itself), and she can run against Ryan! How about that?  

[Torie]

Oh, yes, OH-06 has heavily GOP suburban Canton, and somewhat less heavily GOP south suburban Akron, and that has been "traditionally Pubbie" since about 1856.

I don't understand, then. If it's so heavily Pubbie, why is it when combined with traditionally Democratic Appalachian areas that swung to McCain in '08, it's only at 51% McCain?

Because almost everything else in OH-06 is marginal in PVI terms (mostly the tonier suburban areas of Youngstown and Warren (well as tony as it gets for that metro zone, which ain't much), except for Columbia County, or leans Dem PVI, such as Jefferson and Monroe Counties, or is heavily Dem, to wit Belmont County.  

Ok, and if these areas swung Republican in 2008 in common with other Appalachian-steel areas, what are the implications for the viability of a 13-3 map based on this district's PVI being above your benchmark?

Well your premise is wrong. They did not swing "Republican in 2008."  Johnson is the next best thing to totally safe, and his home base is in suburban Youngstown, and now he does not have to drive so far to visit the perimeters of his CD. Mr. Johnson is going to be delirious with joy with his CD. I am sure he will add me to his Christmas card list.

[Torie]

Well your premise is wrong.

Well, then notify Dave Leip his atlas is wrong for showing the four counties from Columbiana south swinging blue from 2004 to 2008, and trending deep blue. That's my source.

Haha.  Yes I see that now. But you know what that is mostly? No, it isn't the tonier burbs of that rust belt dump trending GOP I bet. Rather, it is the rapid collapse of population in the low SES zones of that place (all in OH-13 of course) which is generating the trend. I just bet you.

[Torie]

Well your premise is wrong.

Well, then notify Dave Leip his atlas is wrong for showing the four counties from Columbiana south swinging blue from 2004 to 2008, and trending deep blue. That's my source.

Haha.  Yes I see that now. But you know what that is mostly? No, it isn't the tonier burbs of that rust belt dump trending GOP I bet.

I didn't think it was. It was working class white Democratic voters declining to support Obama for President. Whether this constitutes a Republican trend across the board that Pubbie congressmen can count on or a one-off blip that applies to races with an African-American (or otherwise "other") nominee, well, I'm not hiding my cards on how I feel.

There are not many white working class Dems in OH-06. It is a quite a white middle class district.

[Torie]

Well your premise is wrong.

Well, then notify Dave Leip his atlas is wrong for showing the four counties from Columbiana south swinging blue from 2004 to 2008, and trending deep blue. That's my source.

Haha.  Yes I see that now. But you know what that is mostly? No, it isn't the tonier burbs of that rust belt dump trending GOP I bet.

I didn't think it was. It was working class white Democratic voters declining to support Obama for President. Whether this constitutes a Republican trend across the board that Pubbie congressmen can count on or a one-off blip that applies to races with an African-American (or otherwise "other") nominee, well, I'm not hiding my cards on how I feel.

OH-06 cannot easily be made more Pubbie anyway (perhaps a half of point), so the issue is moot anyway.  In any event, the old Canton CD trended one point less Dem than the nation, and the Youngstown CD and the Ohio River CD trended 5 points less than the nation. It would be interesting to look at the numbers in Canfield, which is where the bourgeoisie lives in the Youngstown area. I suspect the GOP trend was far less there, and my new OH-06 is more like Canfield, and a lot less like the old OH-06 and OH-17, which trended 5 points to the GOP. In short, my new OH-06 has an entirely new and far more upscale demographic profile.  OH-18, now in general my OH-10, also trended but one point to the GOP, so I don't think that is in play much either vis a vis this issue.

[Torie]

First, welcome to the forum TJ, and thank you that one of your first posts is one that is so helpful to me! 

I found out that Sutton lived in Copley, but thanks for saving me the work of going through channels to get her address. Anyway, the deed is now done, and OH-16 shed two precincts in Copley, with a total McCain percentage of about 47%, and picked up two more 60% McCain precincts in Wayne, so that OH-16 got 4 basis points more McCain, up to 4.96% (and a tad more erose sadly; I hate when that happens). OH-06 picked up two 47% McCain precincts from OH-13 (tough to find, but for that area I have precinct data spreadsheets, with the McCain percentages in rank order, so that nothing is missed). The stats and map of the excising of Sutton from OH-16 are below.

One other comment about this stuff about shaving down the Dems to 3 CD's is so risky and all, mentioned by some. Yes, if trends go south for the GOP, and whatnot, it is possible that one of my 6% plus GOP PVI Columbus CD's might fall, but other than that, adding a 4th CD accomplishes nothing else really (to the extent it is even possible, which it isn't really (see below).  The balance of the CD's outside NE Ohio are safe anyway, and the modes of adjustment are narrow down there anyway, since Boehner lives in the far SE corner of his CD in Butler County, just across the Hamilton County line, and as for OH-06 and OH-16 they can't be made much more GOP anyway, even if you create another Dem CD in the NE.

That is because the Dem pack was/is so effective. Except for some critical link precincts, and a handful of say plus 2 to 5 PVI point Dem precincts at the edge of the Dem pack in a few places, what you have are oceans of marginal precincts and stuff along the lines of plus 3 to 6 GOP PVI precincts, with a few scattered more heavily GOP precincts, particularly around Canton, e.g., North Canton. Beyond the link precincts, and the trapped GOP zone in Lorain, the few odd 56% to 58% Obama precincts in Cuyahoga that are in OH-16 are largely "trapped" by solid GOP territory. OH-14 is trapped by the Dem pack CD's and that cannot change. So ceding some of that territory to a Dem is almost impossible, and at "best" you might create a somewhat marginal CD as against another CD that is maybe a 1.5 points higher for the GOP - max. Plus the map will get butt ugly. It just isn't happening - period.

What might happen, is that the Pubbies might leave a couple of points on the table, to make the Dem pack CD's look a tad less shall we say "aggressive." That is their choice if they wish - dumb, but I can't stop them. That is about the only thing in play. I say that because the Columbus chop is not in play either. That chop is going to happen. With 6 plus GOP chop CD's post absorbing their share of the Pubbie death zone,  the GOP just isn't going to send one of their team to the showers. The thought of that happening is almost ludicrous really.

You need to micro manage these maps, to really understand what you are doing. They are no shortcuts - there just aren't. Not in my experience.

[Torie]

the GOP just isn't going to send one of their team to the showers. The thought of that happening is almost ludicrous really.

Ok. I hold my assumption that they're going to aim for dropping 1D, 1R, where the R won't be Stivers because they like him too much, and they try to minimize Dem chances in Columbus. Perhaps it's a ludicrous assumption on my part. We'll have to see if anything other than a 13-3 map is passed by the legislature.

You are kind of a stubborn chap aren't you?   And I guess you don't believe Muon2's intelligence. In any event, I took your trend thing to heart a bit, and am excising from OH-06 Belmont and Monroe Counties, and am giving OH-06 a slug of Wayne County in return. OH-06 is also picking up the rest of marginal Carroll County, which is also being excised from OH-10. OH-10 is getting a slug of Wayne too, so Wayne becomes a tri-chop County, and it is dipping down again to pick up heavily GOP Gallia County.  OH-2 is going to be kicked out of Warren County, and OH-03 will take some more of it, and OH-01 will get a couple of towns in it, along with some GOP suburbs in west Hamilton County. OH-02 is going all the way to Lawrence County, and picking off some GOP but somewhat marginal territory south of Columbus.  Oh, and I have finished OH-05 which becomes a rather elongated adventure.

I hope to have a new map and stats up today with the changes, although OH-02 is not completed yet, and that will have to await another day. I have only done on a separate map a rough draft of the Cincinnati area. I think Boehner's contribution to the cause will be to pick up Clark County, and about 6 pretty heavily black precincts in Hamilton, right next to the town in which he resides in Butler, so he can revisit his rather impecunious youth, while staying in his CD as it were.  Uber GOP Mercer County and Van Wert counties are being saved for the quad-chop CD's along with uber GOP Ashland and less uber but still +12 GOP PVI Crawford, Knox and Wyandot Counties.  Isn't this fun?

[Torie]

Well to me this is a quite plausible map. As we both like to say - we shall see! Of course, I am going to push my little mappie.    Anyway, this is the next chapter of the work in progress. Yes, I know, Latta is a bit thin in OH-05, but I am impressed with his numbers when running, and unlike the Ohio River zone, this area trended Dem in 2008.

We are halfway done now: 8 CD's done, and 8 to go.





Oh, one kind of fun thing. As you know, I try to make the Pubbie CD's look as nice and pretty as possible, so thus you can see how I jiggled things to get to the right population for OH-05. The deus ex machina was picking up the last two precincts in Fostoria to put into OH-05, which happened to spill over from Seneca into Hancock County. It was just perfect! I had one little problem however. Hancock does not have precinct returns on the net. What to do? Well, what I did was pick up the phone and call the good folks at the Board of Elections in Hancock, and I asked a very nice lady if she would read me the Obama and McCain numbers for Fostoria North and Fostoria South, and she did, having however to go to the trouble of looking up the McCain numbers on one page, and the Obama numbers for the same precincts on another page. Several counties in Ohio organize their precinct data that way, and it is a pain in the butt. Yes, sad to say, Obama carried the two Forstoria precincts in Hancock by 57%.   One can't have everything, but for the cause of beautification, I just sic'ed Latta with the two precincts anyway. I am sure that he will understand.

[Torie]

If you are going to not have a Dem seat in Columbus, the over Pubbied CD's need to take a haircut, and Boehner's currently clocks in with a GOP PVI of about 15 - yes fifteen.  That will need to be cut in half. I will try to keep him at an 8, but no promises (I do promise him at least a 7). Boehner has a national perspective, and I am sure will be a team player on this.

Boehner's home by the way is in an inconvenient place - very inconvenient - and if he were not who he is, the odds are the legislature would tell him to move, because Chabot needs all of Butler. But alas, given the situation, Chabot cannot have any more of Butler, or anything north of it, so his CD is going to expand to the only place it can - to the northeast, taking in the northeast corner of Hamilton, and the SW corner of Warren. Moreover, Schmidt in any event under-performs for a Pubbie in her share of Hamilton (the highest SES zone in the Cincinnati meto area by far except for her 15 or so black precincts which she will be keeping, because Chabot gets no traction with his black precincts either - blacks just don't vote for Pubbies - who knew?). Chabot will do much better with these high SES white folks that he will be picking up. Schmidt however runs just fine with the less cosmopolitan folks living along the Ohio River to the east, and I intend to give her a lot more of such people.