Internal pollster in Michigan: none of my polls have found Biden leading

[Matty]

https://t.co/r0Yucv0IZ7

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Biden is leading in MC poll in MI, Craig was Rs strongest challenge to Slotkin he gift wrapped the S seat is and running for DTW mayor

[Pheurton Skeurto]

The election is 6 months from now.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

"conducts surveys for business and civic groups"...aka not a political pollster.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think the general consensus recently has been that Wisconsin is now Biden's weakest state in the rust belt. RCP now has Trump leading WI by more than in MI.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Wait, Biden isn't leading in Michigan? Looks like Hoekstra is doing much, much better than I bargained for.

[wbrocks67]

I mean....okay? So because one random pollster who we've never heard of has not seen it in their results, that makes their results any more important than any other pollster?? lol

[SnowLabrador]

He needs to drop out. Is it too late?

[Redban]

The election is 6 months from now.

The “it’s still early” argument loses force around this time

https://twitter.com/QPollsandnews/status/1784644420215652767

[wbrocks67]

The election is 6 months from now.

The “it’s still early” argument loses force around this time

https://twitter.com/QPollsandnews/status/1784644420215652767

11/16 is only 69% rate. That's not as high as the rest of the tweet makes it sound.

[kwabbit]

I mean....okay? So because one random pollster who we've never heard of has not seen it in their results, that makes their results any more important than any other pollster?? lol

This guy runs Glengariff Group, which is an established pollster in Michigan that you probably know of, albeit not a great one. About as good as F&M in PA.

[Redban]

The election is 6 months from now.

The “it’s still early” argument loses force around this time

https://twitter.com/QPollsandnews/status/1784644420215652767

11/16 is only 69% rate. That's not as high as the rest of the tweet makes it sound.

What do you want then? A 100% rate? 11/15 is high. If you tell me the Knicks have a 69% chance of beating Philadelphia tonight, I’d take that

[bagelman]

The election is 6 months from now.

The “it’s still early” argument loses force around this time

https://twitter.com/QPollsandnews/status/1784644420215652767

69% is not a clincher, don't act like it's in the bag. But while it's not too late for Whitmer or whoever to turn things around, it's slowly becoming an uphill battle.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The election is 6 months from now.

The “it’s still early” argument loses force around this time

https://twitter.com/QPollsandnews/status/1784644420215652767

11/16 is only 69% rate. That's not as high as the rest of the tweet makes it sound.

Perhaps this is true with more conventional elections, but we have a very unique one with the presidency this year and there are still lots of variables and developments that can play out.

Just look at Trump's rallies from yesterday, he is bringing up abortion unprompted.

[Minnesota Mike]

This is the pollster for Glengariff Group which does the polls for Detroit News.

[DrScholl]

If he's an independent pollster then who is he doing internals for? Internal polls are not independent.

I'd love to get access to this guy's personal social media to see what he posts. It probably would tell a story of bias.

[SnowLabrador]

The election is 6 months from now.

The “it’s still early” argument loses force around this time

https://twitter.com/QPollsandnews/status/1784644420215652767

11/16 is only 69% rate. That's not as high as the rest of the tweet makes it sound.

Perhaps this is true with more conventional elections, but we have a very unique one with the presidency this year and there are still lots of variables and developments that can play out.

Just look at Trump's rallies from yesterday, he is bringing up abortion unprompted.

If abortion was going to cost Trump this election, he'd already be trailing. People have forgotten about Dobbs. I don't think people should become used to abortion being illegal in half the country, but that is exactly what has happened. The only thing that can save Biden is a ceasefire that lasts, and if that doesn't happen, the only thing that can save Democrats is a different nominee.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

The election is 6 months from now.

The “it’s still early” argument loses force around this time

https://twitter.com/QPollsandnews/status/1784644420215652767

11/16 is only 69% rate. That's not as high as the rest of the tweet makes it sound.

Perhaps this is true with more conventional elections, but we have a very unique one with the presidency this year and there are still lots of variables and developments that can play out.

Just look at Trump's rallies from yesterday, he is bringing up abortion unprompted.

IMO this is one of the less unique elections, compared to crazy ones like 2016 or 2020. The candidates feel like tired rehashes at the moment and turnout is probably gonna drop.

[DrScholl]

The election is 6 months from now.

The “it’s still early” argument loses force around this time

https://twitter.com/QPollsandnews/status/1784644420215652767

11/16 is only 69% rate. That's not as high as the rest of the tweet makes it sound.

Perhaps this is true with more conventional elections, but we have a very unique one with the presidency this year and there are still lots of variables and developments that can play out.

Just look at Trump's rallies from yesterday, he is bringing up abortion unprompted.

If abortion was going to cost Trump this election, he'd already be trailing. People have forgotten about Dobbs. I don't think people should become used to abortion being illegal in half the country, but that is exactly what has happened. The only thing that can save Biden is a ceasefire that lasts, and if that doesn't happen, the only thing that can save Democrats is a different nominee.

What you fail to understand is that polls are not real life. Trump can't be declared President based off of polling, he would actually have to win the election. And as we have seen over the past two years Republicans have been heavily overestimated in polling. Abortion wasn't supposed to matter in 2022 yet it did.

[Redban]

Perhaps this is true with more conventional elections, but we have a very unique one with the presidency this year and there are still lots of variables and developments that can play out.

Just look at Trump's rallies from yesterday, he is bringing up abortion unprompted.

On the contrary, I think this election is less likely to have a dramatic swing either way because of the universal name ID. looking at the last 15 elections, some candidates had inflated early poll numbers because of low name-recognition, which made them poll like Generic D/R: Dukkakis in early 1988 likely led over Bush for this reason. But we won’t see that sort of polling swing in this  cycle  

[SnowLabrador]

The election is 6 months from now.

The “it’s still early” argument loses force around this time

https://twitter.com/QPollsandnews/status/1784644420215652767

11/16 is only 69% rate. That's not as high as the rest of the tweet makes it sound.

Perhaps this is true with more conventional elections, but we have a very unique one with the presidency this year and there are still lots of variables and developments that can play out.

Just look at Trump's rallies from yesterday, he is bringing up abortion unprompted.

If abortion was going to cost Trump this election, he'd already be trailing. People have forgotten about Dobbs. I don't think people should become used to abortion being illegal in half the country, but that is exactly what has happened. The only thing that can save Biden is a ceasefire that lasts, and if that doesn't happen, the only thing that can save Democrats is a different nominee.

What you fail to understand is that polls are not real life. Trump can't be declared President based off of polling, he would actually have to win the election. And as we have seen over the past two years Republicans have been heavily overestimated in polling. Abortion wasn't supposed to matter in 2022 yet it did.

But the issue was more salient before people became adjusted to the new reality of abortion access in the U.S. Again, I don't like that persuadable voters seem to have become numb to abortion bans and the horror stories we keep hearing in the media, but I prefer to view things as they are rather than as I might like them to be.

[Mr. Smith]

The election is 6 months from now.

The “it’s still early” argument loses force around this time

https://twitter.com/QPollsandnews/status/1784644420215652767

11/16 is only 69% rate. That's not as high as the rest of the tweet makes it sound.

Perhaps this is true with more conventional elections, but we have a very unique one with the presidency this year and there are still lots of variables and developments that can play out.

Just look at Trump's rallies from yesterday, he is bringing up abortion unprompted.

IMO this is one of the less unique elections, compared to crazy ones like 2016 or 2020. The candidates feel like tired rehashes at the moment and turnout is probably gonna drop.

Arguably this is unique, since literally every election this century since 7:30 EST, November 2000 has been "apocalyptic".

[xavier110]

"conducts surveys for business and civic groups"...aka not a political pollster.

He’s not a random pollster. He, as MN Mike said, does polls for Detroit News.

He had Whitmer and the Ds thumping GOP in 2022, so this is interesting, IMO.

[Steve from Lambeth]

I mean....okay? So because one random pollster who we've never heard of has not seen it in their results, that makes their results any more important than any other pollster?? lol

This guy runs Glengariff Group, which is an established pollster in Michigan that you probably know of, albeit not a great one. About as good as F&M in PA.

Glengariff Gariff Ross

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Have you seen the polls in MI Biden is leading