Ontario 2018 election

[King of Kensington]

I'm not so sure about the Liberals holding Eglinton-Lawrence...its not as wealthy as you think and is increasingly populated by rightwing orthodox Jews...it was Joe Oliver territory federally for a long time

He served one term!  Though maybe it felt like 8 years.

But yeah, Orthodox Jews are basically vote as a bloc for the right now.  It's enough to put Thornhill out of contention for the Liberals and has made Eglinton-Lawrence more swingy.

[King of Kensington]

Rosedale is east of Yonge Street, though the area between Yonge and Avenue isn't exactly NDP-friendly.

There is I believe about a 70/30 split between "Trinity-Spadina" and "Toronto Centre-Rosedale" respectfully.

The NDP definitely hits a wall east of Avenue Rd. but the riding can be won if the NDP dominates the rest of the riding.

[King of Kensington]

Might as well ask: has anyone here crunched the popular vote numbers for the City of Toronto in 2014?

[King of Kensington]

Thanks!

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, Ford should underperform compared to Harper in wealthier ridings, but will likely do better in Scarborough, York and north Etobicoke.

[King of Kensington]

This may be of interest:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=292129.0

[King of Kensington]

That's probably good news for the premier as her seat went narrowly Tory in 2011 so notwithstanding the polls she might hold it.  I also think in Etobicoke-Lakeshore and Eglinton-Lawrence Ford will underperform Harper 2011 but may still win both if the Liberals implode badly enough as NDP probably too weak to win either.  Scarborough-Agincourt and Etobicoke North and maybe even Scarborough-Guildwood are ones I could see Ford winning that Harper couldn't.  Humber River-Black Creek also might go NDP and even Toronto Centre with the loss of Rosedale could be picked up by the NDP.  On the other hand Fort York-Spadina and University-Rosedale may stay Liberal even if NDP gets over 40 seats although cannot see NDP winning outright and losing those two.

Yeah, no way that Etobicoke North, Humber River-Black Creek and Scarborough-Agincourt will be topping the list for Liberal vote share.

[King of Kensington]

I also think the momentum will keep up, and I'm thinking a minority NDP government at this point.

We'll see if there is an 'anybody but the NDP' counterswing, but at this point it looks like the Liberals have nearly reached rock bottom.

I agree, I think the Liberals will receive something like a Rae '95 vote share.

It's really hard to see an "anybody but the NDP" vote occurring.  Ford is just too polarizing.  I don't there are many Kathleen Wynne fans who when down to the wire concede that it's "either Doug or Andrea" will go with the former.

[King of Kensington]

It's interesting to note that the PCs in the Ipsos poll are at 34% in Toronto, the same share Doug Ford received as mayor.  But the map will look a little different than the 2014 municipal map.

[King of Kensington]

How would an NDP path to victory today look compared to 1990?  I think there were a few factors in 1990 (where they got a majority with 38%) that make things a bit more tricky:

- The NDP absolutely dominated the "populist" vote:  People were angry at the arrogance of the Peterson Liberals and the NDP was the overwhelming beneficiary.  The PCs (Harris first time out) were too weakened by their own disastrous defeat in 1987 where they ended up the third party and were also tainted by Mulroney's unpopularity.  

- Vote-splitting on the right:  Rightwing smaller parties (Family Coalition and Confederation of Regions) did very well - over 10% in some ridings.  These helped the NDP win several rural seats, and probably gave them an extra 9 seats overall.

- The Liberals were more clearly the "center party":  To most right of center voters the NDP and Liberals today are basically indistinguishable.  The differences between the NDP and Liberals were wider then and it seems that a sizable number of people did vote Liberal to "stop the NDP."  Virtually nobody is going to be doing that this time.

- The role of 905:  The 905 was a lot less important in terms of seats then.  I don't think anyone really thought of the 905 as a political entity until Harris swept it in '95.  The NDP is likely to do win some seats in Brampton this time (they didn't win seats in Peel at all in '95), but overall the greater impact of the 905 makes things harder for the NDP.

[King of Kensington]

Well, it would involve a near (or complete) whipe out of the Liberal Party, but here are 63 seats (what is needed for a majority) the NDP could win. Some of these are a bit far fetched, but one has to suspend their disbelief a bit if this is going to be possible.

...

Yeah, that really would be the end of the Liberals, with even Vanier and St. Paul's gone.  Obviously a tall order.  But Vanier probably is the #2 potential seat in Ottawa for the NDP, and I do see St. Paul's going NDP if forced to choose, particularly with Ford leading the PCs.

But yeah, this sort of the "dream" scenario for the NDP.

[King of Kensington]

Or Alberta in 2015.

Th Alberta NDP definitely benefitted from vote-splits on their right.

That's not really in the cards this time, so it's really about wiping out the Liberals and hoping that a chunk of those flirting with the PCs end up seeing Ford as no more a champion of the little guy than Hudak was (or for some crazy reason Trillium takes off - a very unlikely scenario!)

[King of Kensington]

There are different types of affluent ridings.

Don Valley West is affluent in a Vancouver-Quilchena kind of way; St. Paul's is affluent in a Fairview or Point Grey kind of way.

[King of Kensington]

My guess is that the Liberals will not be reduced to 2-3, but will win a few random ethnic ridings in the GTA.

In 2011, the federal Liberals in Ontario were reduced to the "too educated to vote Tory, too rich to vote NDP demographic", university towns and yes, a "few random ethnic ridings in the GTA." 

But yeah, it'll likely be even worse for the Libs if they're 10-15 points behind the NDP unless they're able to concentrate their vote somehow.

[King of Kensington]

What's the likelihood of Oshawa being the NDP's "Sault Ste. Marie 2011"?

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, there's a certain working class conservative "but Hudak went too far" vote that the NDP was able to capitalize on last time, with Oshawa being the most obvious example, but also gave hope for future gains in ridings like Chatham and Sarnia (as was the blowout showings in ridings like Niagara Falls and Essex). The advantage the NDP does have is they hold Oshawa, and they are on the rise - but on the other hand Ford has much more populist appeal than Hudak did.

[King of Kensington]

Kenora-Rainy River is the most likely to flip PC (no incumbent)
London West is another possibility (PC candidate is terrible though)
I think the Tories are also targeting Niagara Falls.
Niagara Centre may flip PC (no incumbent), but it's a long shot.
Timmins is also a dark horse PC flip, and it's similar to the Soo in that it's an urban Northern riding.

London West is kind of the odd man out though, as it's very un-Fordian. 

Wayne Gates is the kind of person who is good for countering any Fordian populist surge, IMO.

[King of Kensington]

The Liberals are spending most of their time trying to save the furniture.

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, I wouldn't read too much into wide discrepancies between fairly similar ridings (i.e. York South-Weston and Humber River-Black Creek).

[King of Kensington]

It's nice to some other regions beyond Eastern, Southwestern, Northern etc.

[King of Kensington]

A piece on the growing economic divide between the GTA and "rust belt."  While the NDP is the only party that can indeed stop Ford, it does lead one to conclude that claims that ridings like Brantford, Sarnia and Chatham will be "easy pickups" sounds too optimistic:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/economy/article-ontario-divided-anger-economics-and-the-fault-lines-that-could/

How likely is the "but Hudak went too far" constituency likely to go back to the more populist Ford than stick with the NDP (or switch from Liberal '14 to NDP '18)?

[King of Kensington]

I just looked at the SW Ontario ridings in the last election - it went 34% PC, 30% NDP, 28% Liberal.  The most optimistic polling for the NDP seems to suggest the PC vote is holding but the Liberal vote has collapsed entirely to the benefit of the NDP (and that the "Hudak went too far" constituency isn't at all attracted to Ford's populism).  A "universal swing" model would deliver seats like Chatham, Sarnia, Brantford, Cambridge and maybe even Huron-Bruce to the NDP, though there's likely to be an unevenness in that trend.

[King of Kensington]

As I suspected, not a "universal swing" in SW Ontario.  The NDP is cleaning up in K-W, London and Windsor (with the Liberal vote collapsing and the PCs down too), but the PCs are actually up about 10 points in the other SW Ont. communities compared to the 2014 Hudak vote.

London, Windsor, Kitchener-Waterloo

NDP  54%
PCs  25%
Liberals  14%

Other communities

PCs  49%
NDP  34%
Liberals  11%

https://twitter.com/Tom_Parkin_/status/998208386603913216

[King of Kensington]

The PC already hold every single seat in the south west that is outside of Windsor, London and KW so if there vite is up by ten points there it means they just waste votes winning seats they already have by bigger margins

True, but it makes it a little harder for the NDP to take PC seats like Chatham and Sarnia.

ETA:  True except for Guelph (I'm assuming they're including Cambridge with K-W) and Brantford.

[King of Kensington]

Canadians can get very nationalistic about "our" side of the Falls.  Ours = shiny and touristy and has the better views, theirs = bleak, post-industrial, Love Canal.

The actual downtown of Niagara Falls Ontario is pretty depressing in fact.  And yeah, the tourist industry pays pretty badly.