TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[Technocracy Timmy]

Um ok back on topic. Anybody else think Bredesen can break 70% in Davidson and Shelby county.

The evangelical white populations of those counties are only 33% and 28% respectively. HRC got 60 and 62% in both. I think he breaks 70% in both. His path to victory or a close race resides in cities and suburbs.

[SCNCmod]

Looking at Early Voting...

3 Counties that are within 10% of 2016 turnout levels:
Davidson
Hamilton
Williamson

I think Davidson & Williamson are around Nashville & should be good for Bredesen...

But what about Hamilton?

[Adam Griffin]

Looking at Early Voting...

3 Counties that are within 10% of 2016 turnout levels:
Davidson
Hamilton
Williamson

I think Davidson & Williamson are around Nashville & should be good for Bredesen...

But what about Hamilton?

Davidson is Nashville proper, Williamson is a staunchly-GOP suburb of Nashville (which swung to Hillary by a decent amount) and Hamilton is Chattanooga.

Davidson will probably be Bredesen's second biggest source of votes, next to Shelby/Memphis. He needs 70% or more in both counties in all likelihood.

Williamson was 64-29 in 2016 & 73-26 in 2012; Bredesen ideally needs to be in the very high 30s or low 40s there.

Hamilton was won by the GOP by around 15 points in the past 3 elections (Chattanooga is about 60% Democratic but is only 1/2 the county). Hard to see Bredesen winning statewide if he's not getting a high single-digit/double digit margin there.

[SCNCmod]

Looking at Early Voting...

3 Counties that are within 10% of 2016 turnout levels:
Davidson
Hamilton
Williamson

I think Davidson & Williamson are around Nashville & should be good for Bredesen...

But what about Hamilton?

Davidson is Nashville proper, Williamson is a staunchly-GOP suburb of Nashville (which swung to Hillary by a decent amount) and Hamilton is Chattanooga.

Davidson will probably be Bredesen's second biggest source of votes, next to Shelby/Memphis. He needs 70% or more in both counties in all likelihood.

Williamson was 64-29 in 2016 & 73-26 in 2012; Bredesen ideally needs to be in the very high 30s or low 40s there.

Hamilton was won by the GOP by around 15 points in the past 3 elections (Chattanooga is about 60% Democratic but is only 1/2 the county). Hard to see Bredesen winning statewide if he's not getting a high single-digit/double digit margin there.

What do you mean by Williamson swung to Hillary by a decent amount... yet is staunchly GOP?

[ON Progressive]

Looking at Early Voting...

3 Counties that are within 10% of 2016 turnout levels:
Davidson
Hamilton
Williamson

I think Davidson & Williamson are around Nashville & should be good for Bredesen...

But what about Hamilton?

Davidson is Nashville proper, Williamson is a staunchly-GOP suburb of Nashville (which swung to Hillary by a decent amount) and Hamilton is Chattanooga.

Davidson will probably be Bredesen's second biggest source of votes, next to Shelby/Memphis. He needs 70% or more in both counties in all likelihood.

Williamson was 64-29 in 2016 & 73-26 in 2012; Bredesen ideally needs to be in the very high 30s or low 40s there.

Hamilton was won by the GOP by around 15 points in the past 3 elections (Chattanooga is about 60% Democratic but is only 1/2 the county). Hard to see Bredesen winning statewide if he's not getting a high single-digit/double digit margin there.

What do you mean by Williamson swung to Hillary by a decent amount... yet is staunchly GOP?

Hillary improved there by a bunch but Trump still won it by 35 points.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ Yeah, Romney won it by 47, while Trump won it by 35 (a 12-point swing to Clinton).

[cg41386]

Forget 2016, how did Bredesen do when he was Governor?

[J. J.]

RCP moved TN to tossup, but Blackburn is at + 5.2 points

There would need to be a "Wisconsin 2016 error" for it to be wrong.

The same is true for WV.

[sg0508]

Forget 2016, how did Bredesen do when he was Governor?

He was "successful" and popular.

[Ben.]

RCP moved TN to tossup, but Blackburn is at + 5.2 points

There would need to be a "Wisconsin 2016 error" for it to be wrong.

The same is true for WV.

To be fair, RCP moved WV to tossup. Neither is really warranted imo.

Does RCP normally hedge ahead of election day or is this in response to coverage?

[Tintrlvr]

Forget 2016, how did Bredesen do when he was Governor?

Bredesen won almost 70% of the vote and every county in his last election so it’s not easy to compare. That was also 12 years ago.

[Adam Griffin]

RCP moved TN to tossup, but Blackburn is at + 5.2 points

There would need to be a "Wisconsin 2016 error" for it to be wrong.

The same is true for WV.

RCP considers anything within 5 points to be "tossup" - perhaps they round down on the decimals.

[Brittain33]

To anyone reading this who lives in Tennessee -- vote Marsha Blackburn and straight Republican downballot!

#SendTrumpReinforcements
#KanyeIsBetterThanTaylor

Good thing Kanye recanted last week.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can we knock off the direct appeals to vote for one side or the other, please?  You're not going to change any minds on this forum at this point.

[GP270watch]

Marsha Blackburn always had a Sharron Angle or Christine O'Donnell vibe to me. I could see some voters thinking, this is too much.

[UWS]

[J. J.]

RCP moved TN to tossup, but Blackburn is at + 5.2 points

There would need to be a "Wisconsin 2016 error" for it to be wrong.

The same is true for WV.

RCP considers anything within 5 points to be "tossup" - perhaps they round down on the decimals.

Well Blackburn is at 5.2 and Menendez was still "lean Democrat" at +5.

Neither is a toss up.

[Joey1996]

Absolute wash

[DabbingSanta]

Absolute wash

The Bredi has lost.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Blackburn was behind and Bredesen kept talking about Schumer and his love for Kavanaugh

[Technocracy Timmy]

The Bredesen cheerleaders in this thread have gotten so desperate they’re now citing supposed insider information from a Washington post opinion columnist on Twitter.

Imagine having a brain that powerful.

Not to mention two recent polls have the race tied and outside groups and the GOP are still spending on this race AND Trump is going today? Sure, that really sounds like Blackburn is up by 9.

The Bredesen cheerleaders in this thread have gotten so desperate they’re now citing supposed insider information from a Washington post opinion columnist on Twitter.

Imagine having a brain that powerful.

Not to mention two recent polls have the race tied and outside groups and the GOP are still spending on this race AND Trump is going today? Sure, that really sounds like Blackburn is up by 9.

Are you seriously trying to reason with him? Bredesen could be leading by 10 and he would still call this Safe R based on his ridiculous assumptions about the Republican base.

Saving these for when Blackburn wins by 8 in two days.

[IceSpear]

Me and Timmy tried to tell you guys, but you wouldn't listen...

Put down the pom poms next time.

[TML]

As I said in another thread, this is what happens when Democrats run as Republican-lite these days.

I can only hope the Democratic party heeds Truman's warning soon - if they do so in time for the 2020 election, I think they could pick up 5 or more seats in that year.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Me and Timmy tried to tell you guys, but you wouldn't listen...

Put down the pom poms next time.

The math just wasn’t there. Southern white evangelicals are too strong. But they didn’t listen...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Espy, Rosen and Sinema will win. ND, MO, FL and IN is gone. So a  net loss of 1 or 2 seats, in Senate 47D-52R

I am sure NC, ME and CO can fill the void in 2020