ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[Senator Incitatus]

You gotta love this on CNN...prolly liar Rosen going against intelligent Rick Santorum.

Right wing religious fanatic Santorum intelligent??? I can't even!

This is a testament to your own abilities, not Santorum's.

[Rhenna]

She's still going to win.

I wish but it looks bad....

Looked bad in 2012 too. Ultimately, ND is a difficult state to poll and analyze. We just don't have enough evidence to prove this is anything but a toss up.

[GeorgiaModerate]

She's still going to win.

I wish but it looks bad....

Looked bad in 2012 too. Ultimately, ND is a difficult state to poll and analyze. We just don't have enough evidence to prove this is anything but a toss up.

I think it requires very rose-colored glasses to consider it a tossup at this point.  Certainly Heitkamp isn't out of it and could still win, but all the (admittedly limited) evidence points to Cramer being ahead.

[2016]

Democrats don't even know that God exits as they're dragging every religious conservative to the mud.

[Rhenna]

She's still going to win.

I wish but it looks bad....

Looked bad in 2012 too. Ultimately, ND is a difficult state to poll and analyze. We just don't have enough evidence to prove this is anything but a toss up.

I think it requires very rose-colored glasses to consider it a tossup at this point.  Certainly Heitkamp isn't out of it and could still win, but all the (admittedly limited) evidence points to Cramer being ahead.

That's a conclusion to pull if you considered the polls reliable, but I don't. ND is one of those states where I can't trust a poll in. The environment does help Heitkamp, which is really the only thing I can pull from this race.

[BudgieForce]

If Heitkamp loses and democrats win in 2020, I expect her to be at the top of the list for a cabinet position.

[UWS]

As Heitkamp announced today her vote against Kavanaugh's confirmation while 34 % of North Dakota voters said it would make them less likely to vote for Heitkamp, I think that Cramer is definitely going to win.

[JG]

As Heitkamp announced today her vote against Kavanaugh's confirmation while 34 % of North Dakota voters said it would make them less likely to vote for Heitkamp, I think that Cramer is definitely going to win.

The question is whether or not those 34% would ever vote for a democrat in the first place.

[Bidenworth2020]

Democrats don't even know that God exits as they're dragging every religious conservative to the mud.

yeah, the sexual assaulter in chief, a real role model to all christian conservatives, right? as well as the fact that Dems do believe in god, according to polls. How does this have to do with this thread?

http://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/belief-in-god/do-not-believe-in-god/party-affiliation/democratlean-dem/

[Xing]

Well, at least Heitkamp has some integrity. That's more than can be said for a lot of politicians. I really don't think switching to a yes would've helped her, though. Republicans would've painted her as duplicitous, and still attacked her, and the Democrats might have cut her off entirely. She might be reasoning that it comes off better for her to stand her ground. We'll see if she's right or not. I know the pro-Kavanaugh folks want her to be wrong, but that's not how reality works.

Either way, it's dumb of the NRSC to pull out, since it really doesn't cost that much, and ND is small enough that if she and the Democrats have the advertising to themselves, this race could tighten back up.

[wbrocks67]

Heitkamp raised nearly $4 million last Q. In a small state like ND, I'd imagine that goes very far...

[Bidenworth2020]

Well, at least Heitkamp has some integrity. That's more than can be said for a lot of politicians. I really don't think switching to a yes would've helped her, though. Republicans would've painted her as duplicitous, and still attacked her, and the Democrats might have cut her off entirely. She might be reasoning that it comes off better for her to stand her ground. We'll see if she's right or not. I know the pro-Kavanaugh folks want her to be wrong, but that's not how reality works.

Either way, it's dumb of the NRSC to pull out, since it really doesn't cost that much, and ND is small enough that if she and the Democrats have the advertising to themselves, this race could tighten back up.

she was on the verge of tears when she made the announcement publicly. This clearly isnt a vote of political strategy, but rather doing whats right. Good for her, I know almost no one else in Washington who'd do the same in her position.

[AtorBoltox]

How is Atlas going to react when a poll comes out showing Heitkamp ahead by 2

[GeorgiaModerate]

How is Atlas going to react when a poll comes out showing Heitkamp ahead by 2

"I never doubted her."

"The queen of retail politics."

"North Dakota is a hard state to poll."

"RED WAVE INCOMING!!!" (you know who you are)

[Zaybay]

How is Atlas going to react when a poll comes out showing Heitkamp ahead by 2

"I never doubted her."

"The queen of retail politics."

"North Dakota is a hard state to poll."

"RED WAVE INCOMING!!!" (you know who you are)

You forgot:

"This poll is trash"

and

"Cramer is and always was a terrible candidate"

[Alabama_Indy10]

How is Atlas going to react when a poll comes out showing Heitkamp ahead by 2

"I never doubted her."

"The queen of retail politics."

"North Dakota is a hard state to poll."

"RED WAVE INCOMING!!!" (you know who you are)

[Canis]

I remember when it was Claire who looked like she would go down than Donelly than Manchin now its Heitkamp and we are dangerously close to the election Heitkamp pulled through in 2012 this time its different shes not done for but this race is Lean r now I wish heitkamp the best of luck and her decision to vote against Kavanaugh is commendable and honorable.

[Canis]

I remember when it was Claire who looked like she would go down than Donelly than Manchin now its Heitkamp and we are dangerously close to the election Heitkamp pulled through in 2012 this time its different shes not done for but this race is Lean r now I wish heitkamp the best of luck and her decision to vote against Kavanaugh is commendable and honorable.

Did they ever teach you about punctuation in school?

Aren't you one those people who registered as a republican and voted trump in the primary because he was "easier" to beat?
also who cares about grammar I sent it from my phone

[SCNCmod]

What is the case for Heitkamp potentially out-performing polls. 

Also- what is the best case that could me made for why/how Heitkamp could end up still beating Cramer?

[ON Progressive]

What is the case for Heitkamp potentially out-performing polls. 

Also- what is the best case that could me made for why/how Heitkamp could end up still beating Cramer?

The case for Heitkamp outperforming polls is that she already did so in 2012 because ND polling is hard, and that this is a Democratic leaning environment. My issue with that thinking is that ND is extremely different from the rest of the nation (very white, very rural, VERY Republican), and Heitkamp at least had some good polls in 2012. Also, polls did overestimate the D wave in 2006 and the R wave in 2010 so wave years don’t mean overperforming polls.

The only way I see Heitkamp winning is if the polls are somehow more GOP leaning than 2012, and I find a state like ND having a dozen point polling error in favour of a Democrat very implausible.

[Xing]

The only way I see Heitkamp winning is if the polls are somehow more GOP leaning than 2012, and I find a state like ND having a dozen point polling error in favour of a Democrat very implausible.

I think the other possibility is that polls are currently exaggerating the reaction to the Kavanaugh situation, and that Cramer's numbers will come back down to earth. Not saying it's likely, but we'll see.

[Canis]

deleted

Mods ban this foo

[SCNCmod]

October 2010 Real Clear Politics Polls:

https://twitter.com/DC_para/status/1048063345847427072

[IceSpear]

Heitkamp is a NO on Kavanaugh.

Bye-tkamp

Yeah, she must be punished for daring to reject a drunkard sex creep for a lifetime appointment on the highest court.
Amirite bro?

This is what a majority of North Dakota voters unironically thinks.

It's funny people in this thread were trying to find a silver lining to the Republicans pulling out of this race. They're pulling out because it is a slam dunk. They couldn't care less whether Cramer wins by 5 or 15.

[MycroftCZ]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYeFsMNFzwM

This is such a good ad from Heidi(what else is new). On the heels of the Kavanaugh announcement, this is gonna help her.