Do we have national numbers yet for the likely (or PVI) seat distributions?
I estimated the national totals a while ago and had Obama winning about 225-230 CDs, down from 242 under the old lines.
Interesting. I'm also kind of surprised by what looks like a majority of geographically large districts in New York, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada being red. No other states (maybe Illinois) seem to have that given the current rural and suburban voting distributions. Due to Republican control of redistricting?
Actually, my estimate was a bit low. I ran the tally again and, assuming Obama won both NH districts, he's won 234 districts overall on the new map.
This, to me says that if Democrats don't win back the House then they need to get some better people recruiting candidates.
The question is, how many of these districts did Obama win by less than 5? Those districts aren't guaranteed pickups and in places Obama over-performed they are basically republican districts.
