UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Silent Hunter]

I'm not. I have to live this stuff.

Also, 32 million people voted in the referendum, so people do care.

[Pericles]

Wow, this is an incredible moment. After so much speculations NSA backbiting ever since the general election, now May's leadership gets to be tested.

How many MPs do you think vote against May?

[Silent Hunter]

Wow, this is an incredible moment. After so much speculations NSA backbiting ever since the general election, now May's leadership gets to be tested.

How many MPs do you think vote against May?

I'd say 80 to 100.

[Pericles]

So far 110 Tory MPs have tweeted their support of May. That's a lot but not a majority(and of course it's a secret ballot so some could be lying).

[Pericles]

So far 110 Tory MPs have tweeted their support of May. That's a lot but not a majority(and of course it's a secret ballot so some could be lying).

That's the key,
Iain Duncan Smith had a big apparent support among Tory MPs before his vote of no confidence, Tory MPs were banging the desks after his last speech but then they voted him out....

The parliamentary party never liked IDS though, the membership forced him on them. Theresa May was their clear choice. Remainers will probably back her and I doubt there are enough hardline Brexiters to actually topple her.

[rc18]

on an issue that nobody even cared about

Repeating a blatant lie doesn’t make it any more true.

 
Anyway, the Conservative party could have respected the result of the vote, not to mention the vast majority of their voters, they’ve chosen not to.  On their head be it.

[Pericles]

https://mobile.twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1072797975963947008?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1072797975963947008&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fuk-politics-46533245

[parochial boy]

on an issue that nobody even cared about

Repeating a blatant lie doesn’t make it any more true.

Oh, so the consistent polling pre-2016 that consistently rated EU membership as a marginal issue was lying was it? Or the promise to hold a referendum was a defining part of the 2015 election campaign?

just face it, the Tories created this crisis all by themselves. They decided to drag the country down because of their own obsessions, not because there was a massive, overwhelming demand to hold a referendum on a marginal issue.

[rc18]

on an issue that nobody even cared about

Repeating a blatant lie doesn’t make it any more true.

Oh, so the consistent polling pre-2016 that consistently rated EU membership as a marginal issue was lying was it?

...And those polls rated by far the most pressing issue as immigration, which is intimately tied to freedom of movement and thus EU membership.  

The fact that the referendum vote was the largest democratic mandate in this country's history, larger than any general election, proves you are talking bollocks.

Call me strange but I consider a 33 million sample somewhat more informative than a 1000 person one.

As someone who voted leave and will probably vote leave again...

Pull the other one. This is just gaslighting, and frankly it's a bit pathological.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

on an issue that nobody even cared about

Repeating a blatant lie doesn’t make it any more true.

Oh, so the consistent polling pre-2016 that consistently rated EU membership as a marginal issue was lying was it?

...And those polls rated by far the most pressing issue as immigration, which is intimately tied to freedom of movement and thus EU membership.   

The fact that the referendum vote was the largest democratic mandate in this country's history, larger than any general election, proves you are talking bollocks.

As someone who voted leave and will probably vote leave again...

Pull the other one. This is just gaslighting, and frankly it's a bit pathological.

The Fleet Street rags have worked hard for years to foster ignorance about the EU. Of course the British voting public wouldn't have a proper understanding about how the EU works...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tbh this rebellion looks like a damp squib (feel free to quote this I'm completely wrong and she goes down in flames). I don't see the rationale to ditch her (if I was a Brexit MP) aside from using the PM as an outlet for pent up aggression. If she goes, then you're merely delaying Brexit even further (perhaps indefinitely). If you really want a harder Brexit, the best thing to do would be vote down all her proposals and force her hand on either "temporarily" suspending Article 50 or trying to manage a no deal Brexit (fwiw I would find this a heinous tactic given it's essentially playing chicken with the economy, but whatever). I don't see how replacing her with Raab or Hunt or Javid or Mordaunt will change anything.

Also this isn't twitter, let's not accuse each of gaslighting.

[parochial boy]

on an issue that nobody even cared about

Repeating a blatant lie doesn’t make it any more true.

Oh, so the consistent polling pre-2016 that consistently rated EU membership as a marginal issue was lying was it?

...And those polls rated by far the most pressing issue as immigration, which is intimately tied to freedom of movement and thus EU membership.  

The fact that the referendum vote was the largest democratic mandate in this country's history, larger than any general election, proves you are talking bollocks.

Call me strange but I consider a 33 million sample somewhat more informative than a 1000 person one.

As someone who voted leave and will probably vote leave again...

Pull the other one. This is just gaslighting, and frankly it's a bit pathological.

Lol, imagine being this hysterical about the fact that people don't care about the EU as much as you

[Alabama_Indy10]

Unfortunately, I believe May will hold on.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

May apparently has 52% pledged to support her publicly, but it is a secret ballot so it could be less than that. But on paper at least, she apparently has the votes.

[brucejoel99]

BBC reporting that 174 Tory MPs (55.2% of the Tories' 315 MPs) have now said publicly they'll vote for May, with 34 publicly against. She only needs to secure the votes of 158 MPs (a simple majority of the 315) to survive but could still step down if the majority is slim (a-la John Major resolving to resign in 1995 if he couldn't carry at least 2/3rds support).

Without impugning the honesty of Tory MPs, though, the ballot is secret, so it's very possible some may vote differently to their public pronouncements (as both Pericles & Impartial Spectator have earlier pointed out).

[rc18]

on an issue that nobody even cared about

Repeating a blatant lie doesn’t make it any more true.

Oh, so the consistent polling pre-2016 that consistently rated EU membership as a marginal issue was lying was it?

...And those polls rated by far the most pressing issue as immigration, which is intimately tied to freedom of movement and thus EU membership.  

The fact that the referendum vote was the largest democratic mandate in this country's history, larger than any general election, proves you are talking bollocks.

Call me strange but I consider a 33 million sample somewhat more informative than a 1000 person one.

As someone who voted leave and will probably vote leave again...

Pull the other one. This is just gaslighting, and frankly it's a bit pathological.

Lol, imagine being this hysterical about the fact that people don't care about the EU as much as you

Ah yes, pointing out someone is talking bollocks is "hysterical".  Right.  Gotcha.

[ag]

She will survive the Tory vote today. The questions is, if she will survive the parliamentary confidence over the next month or so.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

This is absolutely perfect for Labour: May survives as PM with her authority permanently wounded but guaranteed to lead the Tories into a snap election.

[Oryxslayer]

This is absolutely perfect for Labour: May survives as PM with her authority permanently wounded but guaranteed to lead the Tories into a snap election.

Why exactly would the Tories willingly surrender power to Labour, because thats what a true confidence vote would do. As a viewer from across the pond, my view for a while has been that the only meaningful votes the Tories could win were no- confidence motions. Everyone, from the hardcore Brexiteers to the DUP prefer this travesty of a government where they actually have strings to pull, rather then Labour where they have none.

Since 2017 May has been leading a zombie government. The only things her party can agree on are that they are better the Labour and May, a political corpse, should get all the blame for Brexit rather then some untainted member. Maybe the latter has changed, but I don't see why the former has.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1072905228498948096

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Why exactly would the Tories willingly surrender power to Labour, because thats what a true confidence vote would do.

Because the parliamentary arithmetic currently means that there is no Brexit deal which can command the majority of parliament, so it's either a general election to change that arithmetic or wave no deal through.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1072905228498948096

This may be an ignorant question, but - Is it possible that she could win this vote internally in the Conservative party, but then lose a vote in the whole of parliament and trigger a snap election, and then resign at the same time as the snap election, so that there would be a leadership election simultaneously with the snap election? If so, I would think that would be quite chaotic for the Conservatives?

[Silent Hunter]

Why exactly would the Tories willingly surrender power to Labour, because thats what a true confidence vote would do.

Because the parliamentary arithmetic currently means that there is no Brexit deal which can command the majority of parliament, so it's either a general election to change that arithmetic or wave no deal through.

Or a second referendum; if Labour can't get a VONC, they'd probably back that.

[Tintrlvr]

Why exactly would the Tories willingly surrender power to Labour, because thats what a true confidence vote would do.

Because the parliamentary arithmetic currently means that there is no Brexit deal which can command the majority of parliament, so it's either a general election to change that arithmetic or wave no deal through.

Or a second referendum; if Labour can't get a VONC, they'd probably back that.

Would they? Corbyn is clearly a diehard Leaver, whatever he says in public, which is why he's so opposed to a second referendum. I think he'd honestly prefer crashing out in a no deal scenario. Which makes things tricky. Definitely an overwhelming majority of the Labour MPs would support a second referendum, but, with Corbyn vocally opposed, they may not be able to coordinate one, at least not without another election first.

[ag]

Why exactly would the Tories willingly surrender power to Labour, because thats what a true confidence vote would do.

Because the parliamentary arithmetic currently means that there is no Brexit deal which can command the majority of parliament, so it's either a general election to change that arithmetic or wave no deal through.

Or a second referendum; if Labour can't get a VONC, they'd probably back that.

Would they? Corbyn is clearly a diehard Leaver, whatever he says in public, which is why he's so opposed to a second referendum. I think he'd honestly prefer crashing out in a no deal scenario. Which makes things tricky. Definitely an overwhelming majority of the Labour MPs would support a second referendum, but, with Corbyn vocally opposed, Labour has its own problems.

To form the government at this point Labor would need SNP and LibDems. And I am pretty certain both would insist on a second referendum if they are to vote for that government.