MD (PPP): Biden 60 Trump 32

[Minnesota Mike]

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24654802/md-sen-ppp-for-emilys-list-may-2024.pdf

President
🟦 Biden 60% (+28)
🟥 Trump 32%

For EMILYs list.

[super6646]

Why bother commissioning a poll for Maryland? Safest of safe D states nowadays. It's kind of stunning that this is a state that has gone Republican as recently as 1988.

[Roll Roons]

Why bother commissioning a poll for Maryland? Safest of safe D states nowadays. It's kind of stunning that this is a state that has gone Republican as recently as 1988.

Because there’s a highly competitive Democratic Senate primary and a general that’s at least ostensibly competitive.

[Matty]

I think Maryland is probably going to be the bluest state in the union for the medium term future

It is basically 2 groups

Urban blacks

Highly educated whites, many of whom work in federal gov

Every other heavy blue state at least has pockets of demographics that could see dem erosion

[Agafin]

I think Maryland is probably going to be the bluest state in the union for the medium term future

It is basically 2 groups

Urban blacks

Highly educated whites, many of whom work in federal gov

Every other heavy blue state at least has pockets of demographics that could see dem erosion

Vermont and Massachusetts were bluer in 2020.

[DS0816]

Inflation is not immune to Baltimore or Boston.

In 2020, Joe Biden carried Massachusetts by +33.46 and Maryland by +33.21 percentage points. They were the Democrats’s Nos. 2 and 3 best states.

These two states—plus Vermont and Hawaii—will not get carried by +30.00 percentage points.

I anticipate Massachusetts and Maryland will decrease their 2020-to-2024 margins to the area of +23 to 25 percentage points.

[iceman]

Inflation is not immune to Baltimore or Boston.

In 2020, Joe Biden carried Massachusetts by +33.46 and Maryland by +33.21 percentage points. They were the Democrats’s Nos. 2 and 3 best states.

These two states—plus Vermont and Hawaii—will not get carried by +30.00 percentage points.

I anticipate Massachusetts and Maryland will decrease their 2020-to-2024 margins to the area of +23 to 25 percentage points.

Id expect Biden to carry Massachusetts by 59% - 30% while Maryland would be Biden 60% - 32%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DS predicted that Whitmer would lose don't listen to him

[Fusternino]

Could be the final margin, we'll see.

If Trump really does improve with Black and Jewish voters, I think the effect would be less pronounced in MD than in other places.

[MadmanMotley]

For reference when Trump was on the ballot:
2020 MD was 65-32 Biden.
2016 MD was 60-34 Clinton.


 

[President Johnson]

In a sane world, this would be a national poll.

[Duke of York]

In a sane world, this would be a national poll.

Agreed but an election like 1964 is unlikely to happen again anytime soon.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a sane world, this would be a national poll.

Agreed but an election like 1964 is unlikely to happen again anytime soon.

Not a 1964 but a 2008 Eday is on the horizon if Trump loses and is convicted for 26/28

[Duke of York]

In a sane world, this would be a national poll.

Agreed but an election like 1964 is unlikely to happen again anytime soon.

Not a 1964 but a 2008 Eday is on the horizon if Trump loses and is convicted for 26/28

I hope you're right but i have little faith in the voting public.

[President Johnson]

In a sane world, this would be a national poll.

Agreed but an election like 1964 is unlikely to happen again anytime soon.

Not a 1964 but a 2008 Eday is on the horizon if Trump loses and is convicted for 26/28

I hope you're right but i have little faith in the voting public.

Yeah, polarization is too strong even for a 2008-style victory and Biden probably lacks the charisma factor for that. I could imagine the Democrat winning at least 360 electoral votes and a clean 53-45% popular vote victory in a hypothetical 2028 matchup after another disatrous Trump term though. Assuming Democrats have a strong and Republicans a weak candidate.

[OSR stands with Israel]

In a sane world, this would be a national poll.

Agreed but an election like 1964 is unlikely to happen again anytime soon.

Not a 1964 but a 2008 Eday is on the horizon if Trump loses and is convicted for 26/28

I hope you're right but i have little faith in the voting public.

Yeah, polarization is too strong even for a 2008-style victory and Biden probably lacks the charisma factor for that. I could imagine the Democrat winning at least 360 electoral votes and a clean 53-45% popular vote victory in a hypothetical 2028 matchup after another disatrous Trump term though. Assuming Democrats have a strong and Republicans a weak candidate.

Even 2008 required Lehman . McCain still loses but I think he does better than Romney 2012 without Lehman (he wins NC/IN/FL/VA).

The equivalent to that this decade probably would be 2020+ NC and maybe AK given trends there . TX like FL then probably requires a lehman style event and the IN equalivent might be close to impossible these days .

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a sane world, this would be a national poll.

Agreed but an election like 1964 is unlikely to happen again anytime soon.

Not a 1964 but a 2008 Eday is on the horizon if Trump loses and is convicted for 26/28

I hope you're right but i have little faith in the voting public.

Yeah, polarization is too strong even for a 2008-style victory and Biden probably lacks the charisma factor for that. I could imagine the Democrat winning at least 360 electoral votes and a clean 53-45% popular vote victory in a hypothetical 2028 matchup after another disatrous Trump term though. Assuming Democrats have a strong and Republicans a weak candidate.

Even 2008 required Lehman . McCain still loses but I think he does better than Romney 2012 without Lehman (he wins NC/IN/FL/VA).

The equivalent to that this decade probably would be 2020+ NC and maybe AK given trends there . TX like FL then probably requires a lehman style event and the IN equalivent might be close to impossible these days .

It wasn't because of Lehman it was Iraq War, Larry Craig whom was gay but Down Low and Sarah Palin that caused a 2008.  As for FL it was D with only Bill Nelson once he lost it was going to go R with Rubio regardless

McCain could of changed the Convention but he didn't and Larry Craig cost Coleman his S seat