ME-PPP: Generic Democrat 44%, Collins (R-inc) 41% (user search)
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  ME-PPP: Generic Democrat 44%, Collins (R-inc) 41% (search mode)
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Author Topic: ME-PPP: Generic Democrat 44%, Collins (R-inc) 41%  (Read 1731 times)
Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,275


P P P
« on: October 15, 2019, 10:07:05 AM »

PPP polls are just trash.

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Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,275


P P P
« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2019, 11:22:38 AM »

PPP has one of the best records in the industry.... Gravis does not.

It’s not just Gravis
https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/surveys_statistics/politics/2019/five-state-prescription-drug-survey-annotated-questionnaire-ME.doi.10.26419-2Fres.00335.004.pdf
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_W8V6ab5O57VlZHQ1NsR0ZIb0JBM20zU2xkbDktWThwUFow/view

And no PPP is not one of the best pollster. Look at their track record from last year
MO Sen : D+1
FL Sen : D+4
OH Gov : D+7
FL Gov : D+4
WI Gov : D+5
AZ : GOV : R+1
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Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,275


P P P
« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2019, 11:30:09 AM »


These polls range from 3 to 7 months old and came before the impeachment inquiry.


So Collins dropped by 15 points in a few months ?

The reality is that Collins is a slight, but clear favourite and she is far from doomed, despite what democrats are wishing.
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Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,275


P P P
« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2019, 01:16:59 PM »

Any firm is going to put out polls that don't perform well, and it is impossible to know which those will be until after the election. This is especially the case in the midterms, where turnout is much more unpredictable. My point is that if you look at PPP's full track record across multiple cycles, they stand up to scrutiny fairly well, much better than Gravis Marketing. If you look at their metrics on 538's pollster rankings, they have a very low mean reverted bias (which means they don't tend to miss in the same direction) and a relatively low average error. You chose to cite a handful of the 411 polls in the database, unsurprisingly the handful that were the worst. It paints an inaccurate picture to say the least.

Some Gravis polls are just ridiculous, yeah. But contrary to PPP Gravis doesn’t have a partisan bias while PPP almost always over estimate democrats.
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Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,275


P P P
« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2019, 03:05:02 PM »

Why would PPP not poll Gideon but poll Trump vs every Democratic challenger? Seems like they know Gideon would be down to Collins and want to prop up the Democratic number, total nonsense. Stupid how PPP is supposedly this "gold standard" that is to be taken seriously.

Partisan
Progressive
Propaganda
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