US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[krazen1211]

my hope is that the majorities are spread so thin that a 1974-like election occurs again something this decade so krazen will go into a corner and cry like a five year old.

It's possible. Roy Cooper won all 13 seats on this map.

[Verily]

Uh, what exactly can you do in Georgia besides weakening Barrow? Not much opportunity there to be aggressive.

Depends on what they want to do with the Bishop district. I suggest adding the remainder of Muskogee County.

Plus there's the local level maps.

VRA. 4/14 = 28%; GA is 30% black. They will need a fourth black-majority district. Either Barrow's district is turned into a black majority one or, more likely, Bishop gets saved. (Alternatively, the Republicans could draw an Atlanta-to-Macon district and rip apart Bishop's seat, but I don't see why they'd prefer that to shoring up Bishop.)

[krazen1211]

Uh, what exactly can you do in Georgia besides weakening Barrow? Not much opportunity there to be aggressive.

Depends on what they want to do with the Bishop district. I suggest adding the remainder of Muskogee County.

Plus there's the local level maps.

VRA. 4/14 = 28%; GA is 30% black. They will need a fourth black-majority district. Either Barrow's district is turned into a black majority one or, more likely, Bishop gets saved. (Alternatively, the Republicans could draw an Atlanta-to-Macon district and rip apart Bishop's seat, but I don't see why they'd prefer that to shoring up Bishop.)

That's a load of nonsense as shown by the last Democratic Georgia map.

[Verily]

Uh, what exactly can you do in Georgia besides weakening Barrow? Not much opportunity there to be aggressive.

Depends on what they want to do with the Bishop district. I suggest adding the remainder of Muskogee County.

Plus there's the local level maps.

VRA. 4/14 = 28%; GA is 30% black. They will need a fourth black-majority district. Either Barrow's district is turned into a black majority one or, more likely, Bishop gets saved. (Alternatively, the Republicans could draw an Atlanta-to-Macon district and rip apart Bishop's seat, but I don't see why they'd prefer that to shoring up Bishop.)

That's a load of nonsense as shown by the last Democratic Georgia map.

The Georgia legislature may try for three black seats, but they will lose in the courts, and it won't even be a close question. The black population is greater now than it was in 2000. 4/13 is 31%, while the black population in 2000 was 29%. 4/14 is 28%, and the black population is 30%.

The 2000 map didn't dilute the black vote in SW Georgia to the point of being unable to elect their preferred candidate, anyway. Any map that tries to get rid of Sanford Bishop would be doing so.

[krazen1211]

The Georgia legislature may try for three black seats, but they will lose in the courts, and it won't even be a close question. The black population is greater now than it was in 2000. 4/13 is 31%, while the black population in 2000 was 29%. 4/14 is 28%, and the black population is 30%.

The 2000 map didn't dilute the black vote in SW Georgia to the point of being unable to elect their preferred candidate, anyway. Any map that tries to get rid of Sanford Bishop would be doing so.

Your math is incorrect. The last Democratic map held only 2 majority black seats. 2 out of 13 is 15%.

The rest is just mindless speculation.

[Verily]

The Georgia legislature may try for three black seats, but they will lose in the courts, and it won't even be a close question. The black population is greater now than it was in 2000. 4/13 is 31%, while the black population in 2000 was 29%. 4/14 is 28%, and the black population is 30%.

The 2000 map didn't dilute the black vote in SW Georgia to the point of being unable to elect their preferred candidate, anyway. Any map that tries to get rid of Sanford Bishop would be doing so.

Your math is incorrect. The last Democratic map held only 2 majority black seats. 2 out of 13 is 15%.

The rest is just mindless speculation.

Eh, same difference. Seat designed to elect the preferred black candidate. This isn't baseless speculation; you're just an idiot.

[krazen1211]

Of course it is baseless speculation, and of course you are wrong about the facts. That district in fact was 47% black. There is no reason whatsoever for the good Georgia legislature to buy your discredited nonsense!

GA-2 is of course surrounded by plenty of potential whites to add and very few potential blacks.



David Scott (D-GA) also won in a newly-created 47 percent black district in the 2002 open seat election in the 13th district of Georgia.


http://www.ucdc.edu/faculty/Voting_Rights/Papers/7%20-%20Grose.pdf

[BigSkyBob]

Uh, what exactly can you do in Georgia besides weakening Barrow? Not much opportunity there to be aggressive.

Depends on what they want to do with the Bishop district. I suggest adding the remainder of Muskogee County.

Plus there's the local level maps.

VRA. 4/14 = 28%; GA is 30% black. They will need a fourth black-majority district. Either Barrow's district is turned into a black majority one or, more likely, Bishop gets saved. (Alternatively, the Republicans could draw an Atlanta-to-Macon district and rip apart Bishop's seat, but I don't see why they'd prefer that to shoring up Bishop.)

That's a load of nonsense as shown by the last Democratic Georgia map.

The Georgia legislature may try for three black seats, but they will lose in the courts, and it won't even be a close question. The black population is greater now than it was in 2000. 4/13 is 31%, while the black population in 2000 was 29%. 4/14 is 28%, and the black population is 30%.

The 2000 map didn't dilute the black vote in SW Georgia to the point of being unable to elect their preferred candidate, anyway.

Post hoc ergo proctor hoc. Empirically, the district didn't regress. That is not to say that the district could have regressed. If the incumbent had retired, or the 2010 GOP candidate had done slightly better the district very well may have regressed.

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[krazen1211]

New map out.

Minor pro-Shuler changes.

http://www.wral.com/asset/news/state/nccapitol/2011/07/21/9888766/congress_2A.PDF

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The main issue is that the Obama DOJ will be the ones who get to decide if any map is unfairly diluting the black population in Bishop's district.

[Miles]

New map out.

Minor pro-Shuler changes.

http://www.wral.com/asset/news/state/nccapitol/2011/07/21/9888766/congress_2A.PDF

McHenry probably refused to take a sub-57% McCain district.

[krazen1211]

http://www.stamfordadvocate.com/news/article/NC-lawmakers-OK-redistricting-for-3-sets-of-maps-1578520.php#page-1

Done deal. Lock and load.

[krazen1211]

"The judges will see the maps for what they are, and what they are is an attempt to disenfranchise African Americans by segregating them and diminishing their voting rights and the influence of women in North Carolina," said Rep. Deborah Ross, D-Wake, as the House debated proposed House districts



lol? how did they do that?

[Nichlemn]

"The judges will see the maps for what they are, and what they are is an attempt to disenfranchise African Americans by segregating them and diminishing their voting rights and the influence of women in North Carolina," said Rep. Deborah Ross, D-Wake, as the House debated proposed House districts



lol? how did they do that?

Well, women are more Democratic. You could say this about absolutely any pro-Republican gerrymander.

[jimrtex]

"The judges will see the maps for what they are, and what they are is an attempt to disenfranchise African Americans by segregating them and diminishing their voting rights and the influence of women in North Carolina," said Rep. Deborah Ross, D-Wake, as the House debated proposed House districts

lol? how did they do that?

In New Jersey it was claimed that districts represented by women were targeted for deletion. 

[krazen1211]

"The judges will see the maps for what they are, and what they are is an attempt to disenfranchise African Americans by segregating them and diminishing their voting rights and the influence of women in North Carolina," said Rep. Deborah Ross, D-Wake, as the House debated proposed House districts

lol? how did they do that?

In New Jersey it was claimed that districts represented by women were targeted for deletion. 

In North Carolina the 3 female reps were given safe seats. Of course, it had little to do with them being female.

[Miles]

An exercise in pointlessness, but I did this for fun.

Assumptions:
- the VRA doesn't exist
- Dems control the process

This map would result in a pretty solid 9-4 Democratic delegation.



NC-01- Blue  55.7/43.6 Obama (D+3)
Butterfield doesn't live here; even if he ran here, he could have serious primary problems.

NC-02- Green 52.5/46.8 Obama (R+1)
All in all, moves about 1.5 points to the left, enough for Etheridge to have won in 2010. Butterfield lives here, but I doubt he runs here.

NC-03- Orange 57.2/42.0 McCain (R+11)
Gets more Democratic, but Jones has nothing to worry about.

NC-04- Red 54.5/44.5 Obama (D+1.5)
I'm guessing Miller and Price would switch districts. Miller now lives in the 4th and Price is in the 6th. Still , they'll both be fine; Miller shouldn't lose here. This will definitely trend Democrat over the years. I'm proud that I only cut Wake county 2 ways.

NC-05- Yellow 56.9/42.3 Obama (D+4)
The 5th is now based in the Piedmont Triad. Miller could run here as well, but he has more of a base in Wake County. Regardless of who runs, its Likely D.

NC-06- Crimson 57.9/41.0 McCain (R+12)
A Republican vote sink. Coble now lives in the 5th, but he'd be ok here. I put Chapel Hill here to piss off the UNC liberals.

NC-07- Gray 52.4/46.7 McCain (R+6)
Almost identical, both geographically and ideologically, to the current 7th. Democratic at the state level. Safe for McIntyre.

NC-08- Violet 55.1/44.1 Obama (D+2)
Even more Democratic than the current 8th. Kissell will be in great shape.

NC-09- Pink 59.9/39.2 McCain (R+14)
Very safe for Myrick and no risk of flipping down the line. McHenry also lives here.

NC-10- Light Blue 63.0/35.6 McCain (R+17)
The most GOP district. Probable primary between McHenry and Foxx.

NC-11- Lime 51.9/46.7 McCain (R+6)
Shuler is guaranteed another 5 terms.

NC-12 Navy 56.8/42.4 Obama (D+4)
'Had to unpack the snake to give Democratic precincts to other districts. Watt has some appeal  to whites so he'd probably win a primary, even in a 30% black district.

NC-13- Tan 61.3/37.9 Obama (D+8)
The most Democratic district. Price or Miller will be very safe.

[krazen1211]

http://www.rollcall.com/news/Brad-Miller-David-Price-North-Carolina-4th-District-New-Map-Redistricting-207835-1.html?pos=opolh


Miller told Roll Call that he thought a primary between him and Price would be “very unlikely,” but he stressed that the 4th “includes a lot of very familiar territory for me."

"It would be a district that I would be very pleased to represent. I would love to represent my hometown as well as the town I live in now,” said Miller, who was born and grew up in Fayetteville, in the 4th under the new lines.

Miller said the new 13th “does not include much of the district I’ve represented or what has been my political base, where I draw support and votes.” He noted Price “has represented more of the new 13th than I have represented.”




And here we go!

[Miles]

As an NC Democrat, I'd probably vote for Miller over Price in a primary. I think most Democrats in the 4th would agree with me. I mean the new 13th isn't completely unwinnable, but I can see it trending towards the Democrats and being competitive a few cycles down the road.


For what its worth (not much), here's the Democrat's Congressional map:



NC-01: 61.8/37.6 Obama
NC-02: 51.7/47.5 McCain
NC-03: 61.6/37.6 McCain
NC-04: 65.1/33.9 Obama
NC-05: 60.8/37.9 McCain
NC-06: 62.0/36.9 McCain
NC-07: 51.1/48.1 McCain
NC-08: 49.7/49.6 McCain
NC-09: 55.6/43.6 McCain
NC-10: 61.4/37.6 McCain
NC-11: 52.7/45.9 McCain
NC-12: 70.5/28.8 Obama
NC-13: 61.6/37.6 Obama

If the Dems controlled the process, I doubt they'd actually shore up Ellmers and weaken Kissell like they did here.

[Napoleon]

Nicely drawn map, Miles!

[nclib]

I'm not sure the new map is worse for NC Dems than the old one. Miller would have a greater chance in NC-13 than in the old map, but would still be an underdog.

[minionofmidas]

I'm not sure the new map is worse for NC Dems than the old one.

Kissell and McIntyre. The 13th is a goner with either map, while these two have been weakened further. And McIntyre's home added to Kissell's district, too.

[Miles]

I agree. The new map is worse. Miller would still be too liberal to win the new 13th and McIntyre and Kissell were really screwed.

I think Shuler could still actually hold on though, at least that's what most of Kay Hagan's advisers seem to think.

Accordingly, McHenry could be vulnerable in a Democratic wave year; a Democratic challenger could now use Asheville as a base.

I do think that in challenging the original map, Butterfield had the best interests of the delegation at heart. I didn't think we could have done worse than the original, either. Looks like I was wrong....

[timothyinMD]

My cleaner, compromise map for North Carolina:





1  68.1% Obama  31.4% McCain  51.7% Black
2  40.4% Obama  58.8% McCain
3  45.7% Obama  53.4% McCain
4  45.5% Obama  53.6% McCain
5  42.8% Obama  56.3% McCain
6  49.4% Obama  49.5% McCain  72.3% White, 16.2% Black 6.6% Hispanic
7  73.9% Obama  25.2% McCain   45.5% White, 36.0% Black, 11.3% Hispanic
8  42.6% Obama  56.4% McCain
9  39.2% Obama  59.8% McCain
10  72.2% Obama  27.1% McCain   36.5% White, 41.9% Black,  15.7% Hispanic
11  45.1% Obama  54.1% McCain
12  36.4% Obama  62.2% McCain
13  45.5% Obama  53.2% McCain

9 Republican 3 Democrat districts and 1 pure toss up.

[Miles]

I can still see McIntyre and Shuler winning on that map. Their districts would only be a few points more Republican.

Giving Asheville to Foxx would weaken Shuler.

Its amazing that with Kissell's district, making only a few slight tweaks turns it into a GOP-leaning seat. You basically just cut of his Charlotte arm, added the rest of Union and then some of Rowan; his district went from 52% Obama to 56% McCain.