US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[Miles]

This is my attempt at a McHenrymander with 3 VRA seats.

...needless to say, a third minority district would be a very hard sell.

Minority-Majority/Plurality districts

[Miles]

I made a 9-4 map that pits Foxx (R) with Shuler (D) ; Price (D) with Miller (D) ; McIntrye (D) with Kissell (D)

NC-01 is 51.6% black
NC-12 is 44.5% to 33.5% black-white
NC-08 is 44% White to 36% Black

I'll post a map soon.

Please do; I'd really like to see that.

[Miles]

Here's my shot at 10-3:





I think getting rid of the snake would help Republicans; all they would need to do is crack W-S and Greensboro between Foxx, Price and Cobble.

NC-01 is 52.1% black and NC-12 is 41.4% black, 32.5% white.

The biggest losers here would be Jones (who's PVI gets cut in half) and McHenry (though I'm sure he'd play ball).

[Miles]

Here's my shot at 10-3:





I think getting rid of the snake would help Republicans; all they would need to do is crack W-S and Greensboro between Foxx, Price and Cobble.

NC-01 is 52.1% black and NC-12 is 41.4% black, 32.5% white.

The biggest losers here would be Jones (who's PVI gets cut in half) and McHenry (though I'm sure he'd play ball).

This map could really backfire on Republicans in the next good Dem year.  Your NC-03 looks very much like the district Marty Lancaster held easily until 1992 and is traditionally very Democratic.  The only completely safe districts for the GOP here are NC-05, NC-06, and NC-11.  This could be a 10-3 Democratic map by 2016. 

Yeah, this was pretty much my "GOP Overreach Map."

NC-03 is only barely Republican at the state level (51-49). I figured Walter Jones would be enough of a moderate to hold it. After he retires, it could very well flip.

[Miles]

McHenry isn't going to want his district's margin cut from 63-36 to 54-45.

But if taking a less safe district means a pickup of 2 or 3 other seats (and defeating Shuler),  he'd probably consider it. Maybe not down to 54% McCain, but I'm sure he'd take in more Democratic precincts if necessary.

I thought they were going to release the maps this week...

[Miles]

You underestimate the typical Congressman's desire for self-preservation above all else. Even moreso when it's a rabid partisan like McHenry who gets little to no crossover support.

The Congressional map is due out on July 1, I think.

Good point. McHenry could easily lose if he were running in anything less than a 55-60% McCain district in a good Democratic year.

You're right; in most of my NC maps, I weaken the GOP incumbents more than I probably should.

Hooray...3 more days to Congressional redistricting Armageddon...

[Miles]

That 4th is atrocious.

Looks like we have Price vs Miller....

Kissell  has a 55% McCain district...he could have a chance. It could at least be competitive by the end of the decade.

McIntryre looks like he almost lives in NC-08.

[Miles]

McHenry about 57-42 McCain.

The new 4th isn't even close to being another VRA district. I have it as 51% white, 29% black. Its just a Democratic vote sink thats roughly 70% Obama.

I projecting it at 69.6% Obama 29.6% McCain.

[Miles]

Rucho is my State Senator by the way...

[Miles]

Agreed. Its a masterpiece of Republican gerrymandering and minority packing.



From DKE:

"Republicans making a play for all 4 seats.  Shuler, Miller, Kissell, and McIntyre all in trouble.  Old vs new breakdown:

District / Old / New
1 37/63 31/68
2 47/52 56/44
3 61/38 56/43
4 37/62 28/71
5 61/38 57/42
6 63/36 55/44
7 52/47 55/44
8 47/52 55/44
9 55/45 55/44
10 63/36 57/42
11 52/47 58/41
12 29/71 22/78
13 40/59 56/43 "


The frickin 12th is 78% Obama!!!!

[Miles]

There were other splits that were undone that you forgot to mention.

The existing map splits Mecklenberg, and I think even Charlotte, 3 ways. This map splits them 2 ways.

NC-08 looks like it still retains some precincts in southeastern Mecklenburg.

[Miles]

So it's obviously not a gerrymander, since it went 10-3 for Easley when he won by almost 13%

Roy Cooper also carried all of the new districts in 2008 when he won by 22 points.

So, obviously, the map is very fair.

[Miles]

Wow, this is even worse than I thought, both in terms of partisanship and aesthetics. NC-4 could still easily have been a vote sink while staying in the Triangle.

krazen, where are you getting the Dole/Hagan/Perdue/McCrory numbers for the current map--some look surprising.

The legislature website has election numbers posted for each district under "District Stats"

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho-Lewis_Congress_1&Body=Congress

[Miles]

It definitely could...Ellmers and Foxx could lose and we could possibly take back the 13th and the 1st if Jones retires.

[Miles]

how many of those districts did Kay Hagan win in 2008?

Hagan won the 1st, 4th, 7th, 12th and 8th (by .2%). She lost the 6th by .4%.

[Miles]

You might not like that fact, but, the fact that you don't like the partisan outcome doesn't give you the right to grossly mischaracterize the change in Black percentage.

Fine...its a masterpiece of Democratic packing.

...happy!!?

[Miles]

Here's Perdue vs. McCrory.

This really shows how packed the Democratic votes are....

[Miles]

So they went for 10-3; not exactly unexpected. McHenry and Foxx's districts are diluted, but probably not enough to cause them to lose. I do think they're playing with fire making NC-12 majority-black; that could open the district up to being declared an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.

Black VAP is 49.35%.

Very clever of them...

[Miles]

A few more election maps:

Dole/Hagan

Bush/Kerry

Outside of the 3 liberal districts, Kerry's best  district was NC-07...were he lost 40/59. Granted, Kerry lost the state by 13 points, there's still a lot of 60% Bush districts here

[Miles]

Although this map has a clear Republican bent to it and the current Democratic congressmen are probably SOL I feel like this map has the potential to give the GOP some heartburn down the road.  If the overall Democratic trend in the state holds up and the Democrats continue to pursue North Carolina at the presidential level I think some of those districts that are now 55% McCain might be more like 50-50 districts in 2016.

Those are pretty much my thoughts too.  Districts like NC-02, NC-06 and NC-09 are a ticking time bomb for Republicans. 

True, but Myrick will have NC-09 for as long as she wants.

I agree that NC-02, NC-06 would be competitive down the road.

NC-03 could easily change hands if Jones retires in a few cycles. Its ancestrally Democratic and still votes Democrat on the state level.

[Miles]

And, if the Republican trend reasserts itself, and at the Presidential level the Republicans regain their historic advantage, these districts could be 59-41 Republican by 2016.

Republican trend lol

[Miles]

And, if the Republican trend reasserts itself, and at the Presidential level the Republicans regain their historic advantage, these districts could be 59-41 Republican by 2016.

Republican trend lol

Feel free to compare the number of GOP state legislators in North Carolina compare to forty years ago. The long term trend has been clear enough. Whether there has been an acceleration of that trend towards the GOP in 2010, a leveling off of that trend, a reversal of that trend, or a blip in the last several years is a matter of speculation.

Both chambers of the legislature are Republican because turnout last year among Democrats was horrendous.

[Miles]

Then again, previous to 2010 both chambers were Democratic due to gerrymandering, and depressed GOP turnout in 2006, and 2008.

To be perfectly honest with you, I'm trying to remain cordial, but it does frustrate me when you seem to think your own understanding of NC politics is more informed or of greater value than that of an actual resident.

Republicans are going to get the Dems down to, possibly as low as 30% of both state houses after the redistricting session. Democrats are going to lose even more seats. You'll probably use that to justify NC's "Republican trend" too.

Democratic turnout in 2010 was worse than Republicans in 2006 or 2008. I can personally attest to that....

...I didn't even bother to vote last year, which I feel really guilty about now. Granted, my local districts are pretty safely Republican by NC standards, there were a lot of apathetic/angry Dems like me last year.

[Miles]

Then again, previous to 2010 both chambers were Democratic due to gerrymandering, and depressed GOP turnout in 2006, and 2008.

To be perfectly honest with you, I'm trying to remain cordial, but it does frustrate me when you seem to think your own understanding of NC politics is more informed or of greater value than that of an actual resident.

I think you're learning why most regular posters here have him on ignore.

Yep!

Ahh...there we go, much better!

[Miles]

Worth noting:

McIntyre & Etheridge both got around 70% in 2002 and 2004, good Republican years.  It would be difficult for Etheridge to mount a comeback now, since he's voted for Obamacare and beat up kids on the sidewalk; but McIntyre still has a good chance of winning.  Especially against Ilario Pantano.

Kissell has a good chance of holding on too.  The 8th is a very blue-collar area, and Democrats have an edge in voter registration.

In other news, I should respect Mel Watt for standing up for other North Carolina Democrats after the Republicans gave him a 78% Obama district:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I wish Lacy Clay and Emmanuel Cleaver acted more like Mel Watt.

I agree about Kissell and McIntrye.