State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[bilaps]

These are two safe R/D seats right?

[bilaps]

First results are in, 2 republicans are at 40% each

[bilaps]

With 16/17 precints reporting there will be a runoff in GA between two Republicans who are combined at 85% of the vote.

[bilaps]

Just comparing the special election results to 2016/2012 in ME/PA:

ME HD-124 went Democratic by 29 points, which is an 10.9% improvement on Clinton and a 7.6% improvement on Obama 2012.

PA HD-114 went Democratic by 24.8 points, which is a 32.5% improvement on Clinton and even a 6.5% improvement on Obama 2012.

Compare it with special election results now

[bilaps]

Wow Dem candidate ran even ahead of Obama. What a hack can't beleive it. It's a safe D seat at the state leg level.

[bilaps]

Wow Dem candidate ran even ahead of Obama. What a hack can't beleive it. It's a safe D seat at the state leg level.

Thanks - glad you seemed to enjoy my maps! Sounds like your planning on making better ones yourself?

No, man, I'm not in the mapmaking business. My point was pretty obvious one. If you do public work, post it online, I hate to break it down to you but you could be criticized. It's a shock, I know. However I really didn't even criticize your maps or talked about how hard you do your job. I only pointed out that you were comparing apples to oranges, special election results vs presidential election in the same seat. Better comparison for sure is with the state leg election from the same year in which Trump won. Random observer on twitter and even here notes big swing to Dems but it would be a slightly different story if we compare 2016 state leg with this special. Your passive agressive tone that followed a normal comment is really something. Reminds me of 2016 election twitter in early vote reporting.. Remember, bias isn't what you report rather what you don't.

[bilaps]

Wow Dem candidate ran even ahead of Obama. What a hack can't beleive it. It's a safe D seat at the state leg level.

Thanks - glad you seemed to enjoy my maps! Sounds like your planning on making better ones yourself?

No, man, I'm not in the mapmaking business. My point was pretty obvious one. If you do public work, post it online, I hate to break it down to you but you could be criticized. It's a shock, I know. However I really didn't even criticize your maps or talked about how hard you do your job. I only pointed out that you were comparing apples to oranges, special election results vs presidential election in the same seat. Better comparison for sure is with the state leg election from the same year in which Trump won. Random observer on twitter and even here notes big swing to Dems but it would be a slightly different story if we compare 2016 state leg with this special. Your passive agressive tone that followed a normal comment is really something. Reminds me of 2016 election twitter in early vote reporting.. Remember, bias isn't what you report rather what you don't.

Dude, you are a run-of-the-mill right-wing troll and you are criticizing a national treasure like Miles.
Take your toys and go home before this becomes too embarrassing.

I can criticize whoever I want.

Also, I'm far from a right-winger.

Also, if you can write here, it's a pretty low bar for forum tbh.

PS Nobody here is arguing about substance of what I wrote, just protecting a guy from a bubble just like on twitter.

[bilaps]

They really aren't. 2017 special election swings vs. 2016 was one of signs 2018 was going to be a big year for Democrats. Just like special election swings vs. 2008 and vs. 2012 were signs that 2010 and 2014 were going to be big years.

Not sure about the correlation between special election performance and Presidential years though, but the point is that it's not really that big a difference. Presidential performance is basically a baseline for the partisanship of the seat, especially in the past few cycles where there's been a very healthy correlation between Presidential margin and state legislative results.

So, we have special state house election in 2019. We're comparing it with 2016 presidential election in the same seat, but not with the same actual election for on a state leg level from the same day.. I don't know how predictive swings are but it looks to me that comparison no2 is better suited.

My only question to a guy was why map the first comparison and even Obama comparison not the state leg vs state leg comparison and that's it. People going berzerk for some reason telling me where and what he did, I couldn't care less to be honest if he's the messiah come again, it was a legitimate question to raise