Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It really has become hard to contend any longer that these institutions are acting in anything more than vaguely approximating good faith, hasn't it?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

And there you go, Germans officially dropped the mask.

Well, at least, you can now discard the idea that the Germans are trying to prevent Greece showing those captive Spaniards and Italians how great the life would be outside the euro.

If Greece had submitted a half ass proposal or had just decided to leave the eurozone, that would be one thing. But they really gave away quite a lot to the bankers, and so the other 18 countries are hardly united on whether they want Greece to go, and there will likely be a big mess of disagreements. They sure know how to make tragedies interesting in Greece.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It really has become hard to contend any longer that these institutions are acting in anything more than vaguely approximating good faith, hasn't it?

Not that this will stop Ingermann and his fellow austerity creeps from blaming it all on the Greeks.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Actually, the German government seems to be somewhat representative for the European Union as a whole at this point. The CDU is close to open rebellion against their own leadership, if measures against Greece happen to be too soft, while a harsher stance against the Greek government leads to much criticism within the SPD against their party leadership.

The bottomline is, after some discontent within the CDU, Merkel decided to let Schäuble off the leash to calm things down, which let Schäuble propose the temporary Grexit idea. At the same time, SPD chairman Sigmar Gabriel faces a lot of heat from within his own party because he's seen way too much in line with the CDU.

[RogueBeaver]

Everyone's reporting that Eurogroup is working on Plan A, a third bailout. That's favoured over Grexit for now.

[RogueBeaver]

Eurogroup wants Greece to do more, no chance of a deal today - Guardian.

[Marokai Backbeat]

What the f**k more do they want? Didn't Tsipras basically just agree to former demands and then some? What a joke.

[RogueBeaver]

Emerging Eurogroup consensus, per Politico: Tsipras has to enact many of their proposals within 72 hours if he wants to stay in the EZ.

[Tender Branson]

What the f**k more do they want? Didn't Tsipras basically just agree to former demands and then some? What a joke.

Well, they want some real, long-term reforms enacted that would make Greece more competetive so that they have a future place in the Eurozone. And to make sure that the Greek government is not only there right now to hammer out more time and gamble away another 3 years.

Otherwise the Greeks will once again beg for money in 3 years, when this new bailout package dries up. And then the sh*t that we now see is starting again ...

Either the Greeks get their act together and implement the reforms that are needed, or they need to get kicked to the curb, so that they can start from anew - out of the EZ - and waste their own money, instead of ours.

[RogueBeaver]

Politico: speculation growing that Tsipras will reshuffle his Cabinet and call a snap election.

[Boston Bread]

Politico: speculation growing that Tsipras will reshuffle his Cabinet and call a snap election.

What's the point, if Tsipras already can do whatever he wants? Does he want to lose? Not to mention it's a waste of money.

[RogueBeaver]

Tusk: main Eurogroup has been suspended, side talks between individual countries will try and find solutions.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Politico: speculation growing that Tsipras will reshuffle his Cabinet and call a snap election.

What's the point, if Tsipras already can do whatever he wants? Does he want to lose? Not to mention it's a waste of money.

Getting rid of ANEL will certainly help them address serious issues like military spending and fiscal privileges for the Church and the ship industry. Of course, even this won't make much difference if he has to negotiate with austerity fanatics.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

By this point there's no way that things end well so people (irrespective of political sympathies) should avoid getting their hopes up. A pretty shocking display of incompetence (leaved with frequent complementary displays of pig-headed stupidity) by pretty much everyone involved going right back to the start of the crisis in 2009.

[Senator Cris]

Hollande said: "If the No will win the referendum, then we'll enter into a unknown dimension".
Tsipras and the Greeks wanted it. And now they will pay the consequences.
Tsipras could easily have accepted the june deal without the referendum. Now, if there will be a deal, it will be harder than the june deal.
The Greeks believed at the Tsipras's lies. This is the consequence.

[ingemann]

Hollande said: "If the No will win the referendum, then we'll enter into a unknown dimension".
Tsipras and the Greeks wanted it. And now they will pay the consequences.
Tsipras could easily have accepted the june deal without the referendum. Now, if there will be a deal, it will be harder than the june deal.
The Greeks believed at the Tsipras's lies. This is the consequence.

To some degree I agree, but what really destroyed the Greek negotiation position was the little reaction from the markets. If they (the markets) had reacted with panic, the Greek position today would have been much stronger. The whole yes or no result was secondary.

[The Other Castro]

So, did Tsipras call the Referendum only to act like he's open to austerity because he knows that Germany will turn anything down, and that this way he gets a Grexit while making it seem like Merkel is the bad guy (girl) and that he tried to prevent a Grexit? This whole thing looks like a clusterfyck and a case of regional schizophrenia.

[RogueBeaver]

In his meeting with Hollande and Merkel, Tsipras was given a "mental waterboarding" and that Greece effectively becomes an EZ ward or Grexit and its banks collapse. Risk Tsipras walks rather than accept. Also reported earlier that he'll probably reshuffle Monday or Tuesday.

[ingemann]

So, did Tsipras call the Referendum only to act like he's open to austerity because he knows that Germany will turn anything down, and that this way he gets a Grexit while making it seem like Merkel is the bad guy (girl) and that he tried to prevent a Grexit? This whole thing looks like a clusterfyck and a case of regional schizophrenia.

I linked to a article in the post below, which I think give a rather good explanation to why Tsipras called the referendum. The Greeks expected market panic, they thought the Greece was more important to the markets than it was. Tsipras also warned EZ in the week before he called the referendum, that a Greek crash would start a domino effect with Portugal, Spain and Italy falling. So I think he called the referendum, because he thought it meant that EZ would give into his demands, when they say the consequences. When he saw that the markets barely reacted, he panicked before the referendum and offered a deal. He behave as a man who have seen his last gamble hasn't paid off, and now he's offfering the bookmaker his first born, so that he doesn't end up with a pair of cement shoes.

So the Greeks reject an austerity plan of circa 9 billion euros in a referendum, and now a few days after the referendum they may have to swallow an austerity plan of 13 billion euros? Are the Syriza people going to admit that the referendum was a mistake?

This are a article just before the election.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article51304.html

It have a interesting analyse of the Greek government motivation behind how it have acted.

But more interesting, it also give some insight into why the Greek government seem to have completely surrendered:

Any fears of the markets reacting in more than a marginal way to a Grexit are gone. The Greeks strongest card have shown itself to be worthless, and now they can only beg for mercy.

[RogueBeaver]

Guardian reporting that SYRIZA is showing signs of breakup. Not just the dissenting 17 but 15 others. Tsipras is determined to do whatever's needed to keep creditors at bay.

Politico's Ryan Heath reporting that Greek banks will run outta cash on Wednesday.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, this is depressing.

[jaichind]

Currency market opens.  As expected, JPY is up with EUR AUD NZD down.  But the magnitude is fairly minor.  So it the markets is taking a wait and see approach before giving up on its Friday optimism.  

[jaichind]

I guess the lesson in all this is: "Do not mess with Angela Merkel."  Berlusconi and Papandreou both learned the hard way.   Tsipras might be the next victim.  

[jaichind]

Lew is "encouraged by reports of some progress" in Brussels at an emergency summit of eurozone leaders about Greece.  Lew noted that Greece is showing signs of "political will to implement difficult reforms."

[Hydera]

Lew is "encouraged by reports of some progress" in Brussels at an emergency summit of eurozone leaders about Greece.  Lew noted that Greece is showing signs of "political will to implement difficult reforms."

Much more hardline party will be elected to rip up the 3rd bailout.

Its easier to just kick greece out already.