Ireland Election 2007

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm not sure which party I'd support. I'm UK Labour so I might be predisposed to the Irish Labour Party but me being me, I like to line up behind a "big beast", so it might be Fine Gael. I don't know. I'd have to check out where FG and Fianna Fail stand on the issues that matter to me

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm not sure which party I'd support. I'm UK Labour so I might be predisposed to the Irish Labour Party but me being me, I like to line up behind a "big beast", so it might be Fine Gael. I don't know. I'd have to check out where FG and Fianna Fail stand on the issues that matter to me

Dave

Well Fine Gael and Fianna Fail usually institute the measures of their coalition partners in recent years. However Fine Gael is usually considered to be a Christian Democratic party and Fianna Fail to be a conservative party. Fianna Failhas become more economically conservative since they've been coalitioning with the PD and Fine Gael usually becomes more leftist when it coalitions with Labour.

I did a votesmart test. It came out Green, Labour, Progressive Democrat, Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein

I'd be Labour or FG since I'm fairly comfortable with social democracy and Christian Democracy - so I dare say a coalition between the two would suit me

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

The most optimistic FG predictions put them in the high 50's with FF down to the very low 60's. It would be really astonishing if FG became the largest party.

Has FG ever been the larger of the two in the Dail?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Is it normal under STV for FF - as the largest party in terms of votes - to fair better in terms of seats in the early to mid-counts, but for FG and Labour to pick-up more seats in the later counts?

It's just that FF seem to have many more seats in proportion to its 41.6% share of the vote as of now

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

The Independent TD Finian McGrath believes that FF is considering approaching Labour to form a coalition government

McGrath, along with fellow Independents, Tony Gregory and Jackie Healy Rae, have confirmed that FG and Labour have approached them, but FF hasn't

Should Ahern approach either Labour or the Greens to form a coalition government, how well would this go down with either Labour voters or Green voters should either party agree to go into coalition with FF?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

The Independent TD Finian McGrath believes that FF is considering approaching Labour to form a coalition government

McGrath, along with fellow Independents, Tony Gregory and Jackie Healy Rae, have confirmed that FG and Labour have approached them, but FF hasn't

FF haven't approached anyone yet, so not much can be read into their intentions. The media concensus seems to be that the PDs and Independents are the prefered option.

Should Ahern approach either Labour or the Greens to form a coalition government, how well would this go down with either Labour voters or Green voters should either party agree to go into coalition with FF?

Dave

There's a significant group in both Labour and the Greens which really, really don't like/trust FF. Many Labour members were unhappy going into the FF/Lab deal of 1992, and even less happy thereafter.

The Greens know that their supporters aren't likely to be enthused by the prospect of a FF coalition deal, but they also know that a deal with FF would make them much more powerful than in the alternative coalition.

Thanks Jas

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Quite

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

In short, I've no idea. On the numbers alone, SF are a conceivable target for FF, but they've continuously ruled them out as unsuitable, even since the election.

Seems to me that SF are the "Billy no mates" of Irish politics

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

In short, I've no idea. On the numbers alone, SF are a conceivable target for FF, but they've continuously ruled them out as unsuitable, even since the election.

Seems to me that SF are the "Billy no mates" of Irish politics

Dave

No party wants to be labeled as terrorists, and SF's hard left policies don't help matters.

SF is the last Irish political party I'd support be it in the Republic or Northern Ireland

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Anyone know where I could find out more about which demographic groups favor which party?

My guess would be that FF has a plurality among most demographics given that it seems to be the most 'national' of the major parties

Also, I read on wiki that FG has a Christian Democrat majority and a social democrat minority though she prefers to be defined as a progressive centrist party. Any truth in the CD/SD 'split'?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Anyone know where I could find out more about which demographic groups favor which party?

My guess would be that FF has a plurality among most demographics given that it seems to be the most 'national' of the major parties

Lansdowne Market Research carried out the (very accurate) exit poll for RTÉ. They also asked many other questions which may help answer your question. Their website is here. You can download the data under the Exit Poll Full Results link.

Thanks Jas. I'll take a gander

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It's fair to say that it has a Christian Democratic majority but that there is a social democratic element (last really exemplified in the leadership of Garret Fitzgerald during the 80s).

(FF would also have persons who could be described as both Christian Democratic and Social Democratic, though there I would suggest that the Christian Democratic streak is quite a bit weaker.)

It's no really an issue though and certainly the word 'split' would be going too far. FF and FG are both 'big tent' parties. [/quote]

Guess, I might be at home in either party then. No seriously, I have always thought of FF as being a reactionary party (not sure why) so that kind of rules them out. My Irish kin (the Flynn's) left Ireland before the Irish Free State came into existence so it's not like I'm ancestrally tied to either party, or their predecessor parties, like I am with the US Democrats.

I do know that they were Labour in the UK, my great-uncle being the exception. He was one of Oswald Moseley's 'Black Shirts', though I heard he was only in so far as they paid him to hand-out flyers

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I've always considered myself a centre-left-cum-centrist so a FG-Lab coalition is probably my kind of government

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On its website, FG defines itself a party of the progressive centre, which does what is right for Ireland regardless of dogma and ideology. I must admit that appeals to me

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Seems possible

Of course, following this election, I've came across John Deasy, who, though I say it myself, is a definite freedom fighter . That said, given his party's gains, he'd be pretty stupid to challenge Enda Kenny for the leadership. There's no need in politics for young men to be in such a hurry!

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Of course, following this election, I've came across John Deasy, who, though I say it myself, is a definite freedom fighter . That said, given his party's gains, he'd be pretty stupid to challenge Enda Kenny for the leadership. There's no need in politics for young men to be in such a hurry!

Controversial. I take it you're not looking forward to 1 July.

No

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Quite. In fact some commented that Deasy made these remarks in so far to damage Kenny's chances in the general; thereby, allowing him to go for it. Much of what I've read was scathing, people commenting on blogs that Deasy would do himself more good working to get a second FG TD elected in Waterford

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Given the recovery enjoyed by FG, I expect Kenny will lead the party at the next general (be it sooner or later). Of course, should FG lose ground, then his position becomes untenable

Deasy seems to be a bit of a maverick (I gather his father, Austin, was before him) and to even stand a chance at some stage in the future, he needs to rehabilitate himself with the leadership (in other words, return to the front bench). Apparently, in the wake of his sacking, Deasy was courted by other parties but declined

Now there's something about Irish politics, bit of a 'familyarchy' isn't it?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Thanks for the exit poll data

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

RTE's prediction's underestimated FF by 7 seats (71), FG by 9 (42); and overestimated Labour by 5 (25), Greens by 1 (7), SF by 6 (10), PDs by 1 (3), Indies by 2 (7), as well as predicting the sole Socialist TD holding his seat

It's conceivable that SF could, or even should, have won more but even where they poll relatively well (assuming well is the right word to use), they just don't seem to get the transfers they need from elsewhere; which kind of enhances the fact that they are the "Billy no mates of Irish politics"

This old FPTP-er is actually starting to warm to STV, but don't tell any one !

Question, however, when surplus votes are reallocated, how do they work out which ones to reallocate?

Say if a quota is 10,000, and Candidate A polls 11,000 giving a surplus of 1,000, do they just count out 10 random ballots, then pick an 11th to reallocate ... and so on?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Question, however, when surplus votes are reallocated, how do they work out which ones to reallocate?

Say if a quota is 10,000, and Candidate A polls 11,000 giving a surplus of 1,000, do they just count out 10 random ballots, then pick an 11th to reallocate ... and so on?

Dave

Our system distributes surpluses in two different ways depending on when  the surplus occurs: on the first preferences or on transfers gained.

In your example it occurs on the first count.

So, say in your example, our guy, A, has 11,000 votes and so a surplus of 1,000. The returning officer will have the ballots sorted then of candidate A into piles depending on the second preferences. Say, for example this analysis shows that of the 11,000 - 5,500 have 2nd preferences for A's running mate - B; another 2,750 have 2nd preferences for candidate C; 1,100 go to candidate D and so on.

The surplus of 1,000 is distributed proportionately but yet also somewhat randomly. So, in our example, Candidate B was second preferenced by half of A's votes - he will therefore get half of the surplus - 500 votes. The 500 votes are to be selected at random from the pile of votes which first preferenced A and second preferenced B.

Similarly, in this case candidate C was second preferenced by a tenth of A's votes and so will get a tenth of the surplus, or 100 votes. Again these will be selected randomly from the 1,100 votes which first preferenced A and second preferenced C.

Phew...
Now method 2.
This is used when candidates pass the quota at some point after the first count. This is much simpler but also more random - it's essentially a last in, first out system.

If a candidate gets a transfer to elect him and gives him a surplus of say 1000 votes. Basically, the the last 1000 votes added to his pile will be the one's transfered.

These are the methods used here but AFAIK there are quite a few other possibilities. I think the North use a system with much reduced randomness. I don't know how Malta or Tasmania (the only other places I understand that use STV) do it.

Thanks Jas.

Of course, thinking about STV in UK parliamentary elections, I'd just to have to rank all the Labour ones from most favourite to least because:

a) I don't want any Lib Dem representing me in the House of Commons (bad enough my city councillors are Lib Dem)
b) I don't want a Conservative government

Of course, under STV, no doubt we'd see a wide array of candidates beyond that of Labour, Conservative or Lib Dem

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

First preference performance of FF, FG, Labour and Green (national parties in that they contested all 43 constituencies) in relation to their share of the national vote:

Dublin

Central: FF +2.9; FG -17.8; Lab +2.5; Green +1.1
Mid-West: FF -8.6; FG -15.3; Lab +0.8; Green +6.1
North: FF +0.5; FG -13.3; Lab -0.5; Green +12.0
North-Central: FF + 2.4; FG -1.8; Lab -2.8; Green +0.5
North-East: FF -1.9; FG -4.4; Lab +5.1; Green +2.0
North-West: FF +7.2; FG -17.3; Lab +10.2; Green -1.9
South: FF -0.3; FG 0; Lab +0.3; Green +6.4
South-Central: FF -8.5; FG -12.9; Lab +11.0; Green +1.1
South-East: FF -12.9; FG -8.7; Lab +6.6; Green +9.1
South-West: FF -2.3; FG -7.3; Lab +9.9; Green -1.0
West: FF -4.2; FG -6.9; Lab +7.0; Green -0.9
Dun Laoghaire: FF -6.7; FG -3.7; Lab +5.9; Green +3.0

Leinster

Carlow-Kilkenny: FF +6.1; FG +2.3; Lab -0.8; Green +3.3
Kildare North: FF -2.1; FG -6.1; Lab +7.3; Green +0.2
Kildare South: FF +8.8; FG -10.1; Lab +10.6; Green +1.5
Laois-Offaly: FF +14.8; FG +0.1; Lab -7.7; Green -3.6
Longford-Westmeath: FF -0.4; FG +3.7; Lab +7.5; Green -3.0
Louth: FF +0.5; FG +2.1; Lab -5.1; Green +2.9
Meath East: FF +2.0; FG -1.4; Lab +1.8; Green -1.6
Meath West: FF +10.0; FG +1.7: Lab -6.1; Green -2.2
Wexford: FF +0.6; FG +4.3; Lab +3.7; Green -3.5
Wicklow: FF -3.5; FG -4.1; Lab +6.2; Green +2.7

Cork

East: FF -3.6; FG +3.6; Lab +10.8; Green -1.8
North-Central: FF -5.9; FG +0.3; Lab +2.2; Green -1.2
North-West: FF +11.5; FG +11.1; Lab -5.2; Green -1.1
South-Central: FF +2.7; FG +1.1; Lab -0.8; Green +3.7
South-West: FF +1.0; FG +8.7; Lab -0.5; Green +2.0

Munster

Clare: FF +2.4; FG +7.9; Lab -8.5; Green +0.4
Kerry North: FF -10.3; FG +5.0; Lab +0.8; Green -2.8
Kerry South: FF -0.9; FG -2.2; Lab +3.4; Green -2.8
Limerick East: FF +7.1; FG -1.8; Lab +0.2; Green -2.1
Limerick West: FF +5.6; FG +12.7; Lab -4.5; Green -2.3
Tipperary North: FF -7.3; FG -11.4; Lab +0.2; Green -3.6
Tipperary South: FF +4.8; FG -6.2; Lab -1.3; Green -3.2
Waterford: FF +4.9; FG +0.1; Lab +1.2; Green -2.6

Connacht

Galway East: FF -1.9; FG +11.8; Lab -7.0; Green -2.8
Galway West: FF -4.5; FG -6.9; Lab +0.9; Green +0.8
Mayo: FF -17.1; FG +26.5; Lab -8.9; Green -3.9
Roscommon-South Leitrim: FF -2.8; FG +11.8; Lab -8.3; Green -2.9
Sligo-North Leitrim: FF -0.6; FG +12.0; Lab -6.2; Green -1.7

Ulster

Cavan-Monaghan: FF -3.8; FG +3.9; Lab -8.9; Green -1.1
Donegal North-East: FF +8.7; FG -4.7; Lab -8.3; Green -3.4
Donegal South-West: FF +8.9; FG -4.3; Lab -7.3; Green -3.2

[Democratic Hawk]

Meanwhile, Rebel TD Dr Jim McDaid (FF-Donegal North East) threatens to pull the plug on Ahern

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/rebel-td-threatens-to-pull-the-plug-on-ahern-689953.html

Dr McDaid claimed his party had given him no support during the election, and added: "They gave me nothing and I owe them nothing."

Although returned in Donegal North East, Dr McDaid said: "Fianna Fail gave me no support whatever. I was treated as an independent deputy and everyone knows that."

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Seemingly there was a bit of a ruck among Fine Gaeler's in Donegal North East as well; though, of course, Jimmy Harte's Independent candidacy, ultimately, wasn't much of a threat to Joe McHugh. In fact, transfers from Harte and Labour's Siobhan McLaighlin saw him first across the finish line on the 5th count

Is it just me or does the nature of STV predispose some of Ireland's politicians towards, how shall I put it, "spitting their dummies out" !

Apparently, all wasn't well within the ranks of FG down in Waterford either between 'camps' Deasy and Coffey

What's with Jackie Healy-Rae? He seems to attract a lot of ridicule

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Independent TD Michael Lowry has confirmed he has accepted an invitation from the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, to negotiate on the terms of his involvement in a cross-party alliance to provide a stable government.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0603/lowrym.html

Although, a former FG Minister, Lowry, given the outcome of the election, doesn't envisage Enda Kenny having any realistic prospect of forming a government

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

FF and the Greens will hold exploratory talks tomorrow morning at Government Buildings.

FF Press Release:
"Fianna Fáil and the Green Party have this afternoon separately completed their study and assessment of the policy and discussion documents which they exchanged in recent days.

Fianna Fáil has now been informed by the Green Party that, following meetings of their Parliamentary Party and their National Executive Council, that the documents contain sufficient common policy objectives to allow for formal talks to commence between both sides, as to the possible formation of a coalition government. Fianna Fail is of a similar view.

Talks, therefore, have now been arranged between delegations from both parties, beginning tomorrow morning and continuing, it's expected, for a number of days."

The Greens, with 6 seats, will have to negotiate favourable terms with FF, if they are to avoid alientating their voters should they enter a Ahern-led coalition government.

I suspect Green transfers favoured Labour and FG rather than FF (though I may be grossly generalising things here)

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Thanks Jas

The following ratios are gotten when comparing only those constituencies where the respective parties could get transfers:

FF:FG:Lab - 1 : 2.6 : 3.8
(i.e. for every 1 FF transfer, FG got 2.6 and Lab got 3.8 )
(The ratios are the same for just FF:FG and FF:Lab)

Some others...
FG:Lab - 1 : 1.6
FF:FG:Lab:SF - 1 : 2.4 : 3.1 : 1.1

It would seem that Green voters clearly prefer the center-left option when it comes to a national government, however, when you add all FG, Labour and Green TD's together, they are still one short of FF - and there lies the problem

A FF-Green-PD coalition surely gives a Ahern-led government that bit more stability than having to rely on temperamental Independents

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Fianna Fail and Greens fail to reach agreement

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0608/election.html

Talks between the Green Party and Fianna Fáil over the formation of a new government have broken down ...

... Meanwhile, former Labour leader Ruairí Quinn said that Labour would continue to back the Enda Kenny for Taoiseach as per the 'Mullingar Accord'

However he added that if Mr Kenny were not elected, the situation would then change.



Change What's the likelihood of Labour backing Ahern should Kenny not be elected?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

The RTE/Lansdowne Market Research exit poll found that a FF/Green coalition was the preferred choice of a mere 4% of voters

Preferred coalitions, in order of most desirable, in the exit poll were as follows [2002 figures]:

FG/LAB 30% [20%]
FF/PD 18% [28%]
FF on its own 15% [15%]
FG/LAB/Green 13% [11%]
FF/LAB 8% [9%]
FF/SF 7% [n/a]
FF/IND 5% [7%]
FF/Green 4% [3%]

Should it happen, can the Greens expect a backlash against them at the next election?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

*Breaking News*
Trevor Sargent has resigned the Green leadership.
More later.

(I think I've beaten RTÉ to this one.)

Sargent famously said that if the Greens ever went into government with FF, then he would no longer be leading the party. Given such a shift in position is it a sign of things to come later this evening?

Roger Garland has described the deal as "unbelievably bad" and that he feels betrayed by it. Perhaps most Greens feel the same?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

It will all end in tears for the Greens at the next election

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Apparently, the 'Mullingar Accord' between FG and Labour is over

http://www.irishmedicalnews.ie/articles.asp?Category=news&ArticleID=19127

Dave