Post Random Maps Here 2.0.

[DPKdebator]

2052 presidential election:

[DPKdebator]

Just a bit of a mapping exercise, going from 2020 to the 2052 map I posted earlier.

2020:

2024:

2028:

2032:

2036:

2040:

2044:

2048:

2052:

[DPKdebator]

Switching the PV totals in each election since 2000:

2000 (R+0.51):

George W. Bush / Dick Cheney - 301 EV, 48.38%
Al Gore / Joe Lieberman - 237 EV, 47.87%

2004 (D+2.47):

John Kerry / John Edwards - 284 EV, 50.73%
George W. Bush / Dick Cheney - 254 EV, 48.26%

2008 (R+7.26):

Barack Obama / Joe Biden - 278 EV, 45.60%
John McCain / Sarah Palin - 260 EV, 52.86%

2012 (R+3.86):

Barack Obama / Joe Biden - 272 EV, 47.15%
Mitt Romney / Paul Ryan - 266 EV, 51.01%

2016 (R+2.09):

Donald Trump / Mike Pence - 320 EV, 48.03%
Hillary Clinton / Tim Kaine - 218 EV, 45.94%

[DPKdebator]

You need to double your uniform swing if you want to switch the PV totals. As it stands you have the results of a PV tie in each election since 2000.

So, in the case of 2016, Trump's margins would increase by 4.18%? If that's the case, it makes sense- the change in elections like 2008 seemed a little strange.

[DPKdebator]

1936 and 1972 PV totals applied to the 2016 election:

1936 (D+22.17):

Hillary Clinton / Tim Kaine - 60.8%, 476 EVs
Donald Trump / Mike Pence - 36.54%, 62 EVs

1972 (R+25.54%):

Donald Trump / Mike Pence - 60.67%, 452 EVs
Hillary Clinton / Tim Kaine - 27,52%, 86 EVs

[DPKdebator]

Here's a presidential election map based off this neat post from AH.com depicting British parties in the U.S.

Conservatives - 44.1% PV, 282 EV
Labor - 39.6% PV, 176 EV
Southern Nationalist Party - 10.3% PV, 57 EV
Democratic Unionist Party - 1.4% PV, 17 EV
Ourselves Alone - .7% PV, 6 EV
Others - 3.9% PV, 0 EV

[DPKdebator]

I did a computer simulation on President Elect of Bill Clinton and Bob Dole in 1988:

Bob Dole - 276 EV
Bill Clinton - 262 EV

[DPKdebator]

Noticed that 6% of Trump voters apparently regret their vote. So I gave Trump 94% of his 2016 vote total with nothing else changing.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/04/23/trump-voters-dont-have-buyers-remorse-but-some-hillary-clinton-voters-do/?utm_term=.2405d31adcf7

43-40 looks something like this:

Trump - 337 EV
Clinton - 201 EV

Virginia votes for Clinton by less than half a percent.

[DPKdebator]

Republican North / Democratic South:

[DPKdebator]

2016 election results swung by how much individual states swung, from most D to most R:

UT:

515 - 23

CA, TX, AZ:

350 - 188

MA:

334 - 204

DC, GA:

308 - 230

VA:

307 - 231

KS, WA:

278 - 260

MD:

290 - 248

IL, ID: no change

CO, AK, OR:

310 - 228

NC, NM, FL:

320 - 218

LA, OK:

326 - 212

AR, NE, CT, NJ, SC, NV, NH:

337 - 201

WY, AL, TN, NY, PA, MN, MS, MT, KY, DE, WI:

350 - 188

[DPKdebator]

Continued:

IN, MO, VT, MI, HI:

355 - 183

OH:

362 - 176

SD, RI, ME:

365 - 173

WV, IA:

387 - 151

ND:

403 - 135

[DPKdebator]

If the whole country voted like Wyoming:

[DPKdebator]

A take-off on the Manchin vs Baker trope that is popular on AlternateHistory.com...

Popular... to the point of being driven into the ground due to overuse.

The original map looked like this:

There wasn't a swing state map at first, but it would look like this:

[DPKdebator]

Just a random set of maps that go from 2020 to 2052.

2020:

2024:

2028:

2032:

2036:

2040:

2044:

2048:

2052:

[DPKdebator]

2016 if each state voted like its largest county:

Clinton wins 466-72.

[DPKdebator]

Possible electoral votes in 2040, based off this.

Trump: 310
Clinton: 228

And for fun, the same scenario but California and Texas have their 2010 populations:

Trump: 308
Clinton: 230

[DPKdebator]

Shortly before election day, I did some manual "simulations" using the percentages on 538towin.com, and the results were pretty interesting:

Clinton: 277
Trump: 261

Trump: 282
Clinton: 256

Clinton: 285
Trump: 253

Trump: 308
Clinton: 230

Clinton: 297
Trump: 241

Trump: 280 (ME-01 is not an error)
Clinton: 258

[DPKdebator]

So how does Vice President Berwick show up? It would be very interesting to show us the 1980, 1984 and 1988 election maps in your scenario

My first guess would be that Carter wins re-election in 1980 considering the Democrats appear to be doing well in the South.

[DPKdebator]

any maps which illustrate a landslide Republican victory in 2016?

It says 2020, but same idea:


I made this a while ago, so there's a fair deal of quirks (i.e. Middlesex County, CT would probably vote Republican before Allegheny County, PA).

[DPKdebator]

any maps which illustrate a landslide Republican victory in 2016?

It says 2020, but same idea:


I made this a while ago, so there's a fair deal of quirks (i.e. Middlesex County, CT would probably vote Republican before Allegheny County, PA).

How many electoral votes would this be

Probably this:

362 - 176

[DPKdebator]

An idea I had for a John McCain 2000 scenario:

Senator John McCain (R-AZ) / Senator John Warner (R-VA) - 293 EV, 49.1%
Vice President Albert Gore (D-TN) / Senator Joseph Lieberman (D-CT) - 245 EV, 47.0%

Although Texas governor George W. Bush, son of former president George H.W. Bush, was considered by many pundits to be a shoo-in for the nomination, the moderate Senator John McCain of Arizona launched an insurgent campaign, using his status as a "maverick" to appeal to moderate and independent voters. In a heated primary race, McCain narrowly beat Bush to clinch the 2000 GOP nomination. McCain picked another moderate, Senator John Warner of Virginia, as his running mate, further emboldening his maverick status. This move also helped balance the ticket with a Southerner, a region that would surely be competitive with the Democrats' nomination of Vice President Al Gore of Tennessee.

McCain's branch of conservatism was inspired by Theodore Roosevelt, a political idol of his, which is considered by political scientists as a huge repudiation of the religious right that had been increasingly dominant in the Republican Party since the 1980s. Al Gore, despite being the vice president of Bill Clinton, distanced himself from the president who was dogged with the Monica Lewinsky scandal. This hurt the Democratic ticket in the devoutly religious South, both due to the scandalous nature of Clinton's relationship with Lewinsky and Gore's distancing from the popular president.

On election night, McCain won with a closely contested election with 293 electoral votes to Gore's 245. McCain's moderate views played well in suburban areas, which he tended to win by decent margins. Gore eked out a win in his home state of Tennessee, but McCain washed away the rest of the South by varying margins. McCain also did well in the Northeast and Midwest, flipping Maine, New Hampshire, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, and Iowa. McCain's strongest regions were the Great Plains and Mountain West, where he got over 60% of the vote in many states there. On the West Coast, Gore won California and Washington, but McCain flipped Oregon. Many of Gore's supporters blamed the loss on Green Party candidate Ralph Nader, who was accused of siphoning votes off Gore in states like Florida, Maine, and Oregon.

[DPKdebator]

If every county that borders another state or the ocean/Great Lakes was removed:

Link

Trump wins 443-84 (not counting the massive "DC").

[DPKdebator]

No way Leach is winning Loudoun County in that type of blowout.

IIRC it's an alternate history scenario with different party systems.

[DPKdebator]

I was playing around with 538's Swing-O-Matic and I flipped all of the demographics' default voting percentages (i.e. black voters were at 93% D and switched to 93% R while college educated whites were at 54% R and moved to 54% D) while keeping turnout the same... here was the result:

Trump - 48.6%, 342 EV
Clinton - 45.0%, 196 EV