A Republic Stillborn: de Gaulle loses the 1962 referendum

[big bad fab]

Mmmm... Great and fascinating idea. I've just discovered the thread.

I'm pretty sure that, for the first 10 or 15 years, the Vth Republic would have worked quite similarly as it did between 1962 and 2002 (or 2000 or 2005 or 2007, as you wish: I mean, until the real effects of the 5-year term for Presidents).

After some years, of course, Presidents' legitimacy may well have faded. But not immediately and not if the partisan structure would have become more solid.

Here the electoral system is in fact the main thing to take into account.
With a majority system, I think the Third Force combinations would have died ultimately.

In this idea, maybe PMF could have emerged as the new leader of the left, the one who has understood that you can have a broadly parliamentary system (or a mixed one but with a Parliament that have still powers) but with stability through stable bipartisan system thanks to majority system in elections (and even a stricter one than the one then at work).

With a bunch of socialists, with the PSU-PSA, with Mitterrand and a large bunch of radicals, and maybe even some MRP, he could have become the main opponent of Pinay, sidelining Mollet and preventing Mitterrand from really emerging.
So probably a PMF Prime minister in 1967.
And a PMF President in 1969, or still PM while a Savary or a Defferre is President with less power than written in the Constitution.

I completely agree that Pinay would have replaced de Gaulle in the presidential election and I broadly agree with your analysis of the right.
On the longer term, maybe Pompidou could have transformed the gaullist movement in a "simple" conservative party, able to prevail over Pinay's heir, VGE. Sort of RPR-UDF rivalry as soon as the late 1960s...

Or maybe even as soon as 1965, with the left of the MRP rallying PMF and the old gaullists (Debré) being dropped by the conservative barons, eager to enter the government (a bit like Chaban became a minister under the IVth Republic). Hence, CNIP + two thirds of MRP + DVD + three quarters of UNR + some isolated radicals could have made a majority with Pinay and Schumann still in command.

Anyway, it's a very good idea and I'll try to find time to keep reading this very interesting fantasy.