2018 House Predictions

[PragmaticPopulist]

Using Castro's system, which I really like, here's my predictions. It's hard at this time to predict the outcome of all the races, but there's a few I can give my best guess on:

Tier 1
FL-27

Tier 2
AZ-02
CA-49
CA-10
CA-15
VA-10

Tier 3
FL-26
IA-01
MI-11
MN-02
NE-02
NJ-02
NY-19
NY-22
TX-23
WA-08

Tier 4
CA-21
CA-39
CA-45
CA-48*
CO-06
IL-06
IL-12
ME-02
MN-03
PA-07
PA-15
TX-07

*If Rohrabacher retires or is indicted by Mueller, CA-48 goes to Tier 2

Tier 5
IL-13
IL-14
IA-03
KS-02
KS-03
NJ-07
NJ-11
PA-06
TX-32
UT-04
VA-02

Tier 6
FL-18
FL-25
GA-06
KY-06
MI-08
MT-AL
NJ-03
NM-02
NY-01
OH-01
PA-16
VA-05
VA-07

Tier 7
These flip in a Democratic tidal wave or a circumstance that is unique to the race
CO-03
FL-06
GA-07
IN-02
MI-01
MI-07
NY-02*
NY-21
NY-23
NC-02
NC-09
NC-13
OH-10**
OH-14
PA-18
TX-21
TX-24
WA-03
WA-05
WV-02
WV-03
WI-01
WI-08

*King is speculated to be retiring, but waiting until the filing deadline passes so that his daughter can be chosen at a convention. If this happens, NY-02 goes to Tier 4
**Turner is speculated to also be considering retirement, in which case OH-10 would go to tier 5