Bibi forms broadest coalition ever to govern Israel, cancels elections

[ag]

Well, we'd have to wait and see if a few of the Kadima people defect. A certain Ms Tzipi isn't sounding very happy, does she?

[ag]

Well, we'd have to wait and see if a few of the Kadima people defect. A certain Ms Tzipi isn't sounding very happy, does she?

Livni resigned and is not relevant at the moment. As for the other members of Kadima, they approved this deal unanimously, And with good (personal) reason: most of them were about to lose their jobs which were now saved because of this deal.

Well, good for them. They should start merger negotiations as soon as possible - otherwise they are running the risk of missing the next Knesset even more decisively. And, given their recent decisions, it's clear they are valuing being in that House a lot )

[ag]

A bit off/t, but I heard that one June 4, 1967, a surprise coalition government was suddenly announced, and Israel attacked Egypt the next day. Is this a signal that Israel will attack Iran this year?

That's a scary thought.

Not nearly as scary as the other way around...

Actually, if you care about the Jews, probably scarier. If Iran were mad enough to actually attack, it would be dealt w/ speedily and uncontroversially. If Israel attacks, it could really misfire nastily.

[ag]

It's not that the people should/would be unhappy about them joining the coalition. It's that it's not clear, what's the difference between them and Likud. If you don't like the government: well, vote for the opposition. If you like the government: vote for the government - that is, Likud. What's their niche?

Netaniyahu is, by far, a better politician than Mofaz. This is still going to be the Netaniyahu government, on which Kadima will struggle to make any imprint. What are the positions they are getting, besides the minister w/ out portfolio?

[ag]

People who, for various reasons would not agree to vote for Likud (because they dislike Bibi, because they think Likud is too right wing for them, because they associate Likud with a type of people they wouldn't want to be associated with), but who either think a unity is government the responsible thing to do or don't like the idea of early elections.

Disliking Netaniyahu and liking Mofaz.... Hm., that's a particularly perverted taste. Are there many of those? (I AM being disingenious here, but only somewhat). After a year in this coalition, Kadima will be associated exactly with the same sort of people, anyway.

[ag]

Coming into coalition w/ Netaniyahu "from the left" is suicidal. Barak's not a complete nincompoop: he, actually, managed to get to be a PM, didn't he? And look what's this done to him.

Being associated w/ the "wrong sort" ...  Kadima is, essentially, a Likud splinter, graced w/ a few ex-Laborites for a show.  Are they REALLY associated w/ different people?

The problem is not being a coalition w/ Netaniyahu - The United Israel YB shows that one can be very successful in this coalition. The problem is, Kadima has no reason to exist if it is merely a junior partner in such a coalition. It may be the right decision for individual members of the party - as long as they just go back and rejoin Likud (probably, they should have never left). But as a political entity Kadima will be squeezed  to nothing pretty shortly and pretty thoroughly, methinks.  

[ag]

Well, in 2009 Kadima was the major party on the left - so it got some leftist vote. Now the major party on the left is Labor, once again. This was true even before the new coalition came into being - any reason to believe they are going to hold much of that electorate now?

[ag]

Haaretz is reporting that 5 Kadima MKs are all but ready to bolt - at least, if they get two more to go w/ them (you need 7 MKs not to be bound by the anti-defection law).  Interestingly, all five are somewhat "strange" ethnically, three of them ex-Soviet, but only one Ashkenazic: Russian (Orit Zuaretz), a Georgian (Nino Abesadze), a Mountain (Tat) Jew (Robert Tiviaev) as well as an Ethiopian (Shlomo Molla) and a Druze (Majallie Whbee).

In other news, outside Knesset, both Tzipi Livny and Haim Ramon (one of the key co-founders of the party from the "left" and the chairman of its Council) have left Kadima and are planning to form a new party.

[ag]

There seems to be quite a bit of a Jewish Agency flavor w/ the Livny crowd then. (Zuaretz included, BTW ).