2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, KY and WV (user search)
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  2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, KY and WV (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, KY and WV  (Read 23861 times)
Sam Spade
SamSpade
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« on: October 04, 2011, 08:16:10 AM »

I sort of wish I'd been following this, but you have to make priorities about such things sometimes (sigh). Look forward to the maps anyway.

Oh, and wrt to any early vote statistics, there are certain patterns to look for in WV and they can sometimes be quite useful for predictive purposes.

And what pray tell are the patterns?  Which counties correlate with each other? Or is this a Sam Spade thingy?  Smiley

You basically need to see how solid Democratic turnout is in their various strongholds and whether Republican turnout is (relatively) good in the more populated areas (rather than their strongholds as such, if that makes sense). And also to see if there are any signs of funny surges of enthusiasm. You can then edit this for candidates. Tomblin will need relatively good (for a comedy turnout election) turnout in the southern coalfield counties, for example, because that's where he's known.

Dem coalfield turnout in the early voting was quite good.  More populated areas was so-so.

Btw, Dems say that this race is between 4-6 points.  GOP says 1-3 points and closing.  My guess is like 51-46, 51-47, 52-47 or 52-46, or something like that because of the early voting numbers.  But who knows.
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