Akno,
I don't think that Condi would get 50% of the vote. However, I do think that she would get a very large percentage of the vote, possibly as hig as 30%. Were she only to get 20%, the result is the same--Dems lose.
The Dems have gained a loyal following among black Americans by keeping them dependent on government handouts. As the black middle class continues to expand, the grip that the Dems hold over African-Americans will loosen.
Keep in mind, Democrats cannot win without the near total fealty of black voters, whereas Republicans have shown they can win with minimal support from blacks.
It is indeed ironic that it is GOP administrations that promote blacks to positions of great power, while their friends in the Democrat Party pay them just enough lip service to keep them on the plantation.
True, but keep in mind that, in most cases, for every group gained, there is another one lost. Against a moderate, red-state Democrat, Condi would lose a lot of the white male vote that is neccessary for a Republican to win.
The success of Condi's candidacy is Iraq, Iraq, Iraq. If that goes down the drain, so does she, since that is her main "accomplishment". She won't be able to weasle out of questions like she can during hearings. The novelty of being black and female would wear off quite quickly, kinda like John Edwards being southern and "attractive".