2017 British Columbia election

[Lotuslander]

Vancouver Island will be the most fluid and unpredictable region of BC's 3 regions during the 2017 BC election. I've already analyzed the riding of Cowichan Valley and here are three more ridings to watch:

1.Saanich North and the islands:

2013 transposed result:

BC NDP: 33.3% (-10.9%)
BC Lib: 32.8% (-11.9%)
BC Green: 32.1% (+20.8%)

The seat was part of the BC Green surge on the southern half of Van Isle in 2013 and as one can see the BC Greens took slightly more votes from the BC Libs than the BC NDP allowing the BC NDP to win the seat, by a hair, for the first time ever.

Looking more closely at the 2013 result, the BC Libs won the majority of the polling stations on the Saanich Peninsula while the BC Greens won most of the rest. On the Gulf Islands, the BC NDP won most of the polling stations while the BC Greens won the rest. BC Libs came in at an abysmal third place here. Federally, the Greens swept the Gulf Island polling stations by an average of 70% - 80% in 2015 and the area has very "green" demographics.

I suspect that the BC NDP won the riding in 2013 as a result of their "Kinder Morgan Surprise" with potential tanker traffic passing by the Gulf Isles. All 3 parties will be running their same 2013 candidates. BC Green candidate Adam Olsen has been championing the anti-KM cause and was the keynote speaker at an anti-KM rally in Victoria a few weeks back.

Seems that the BC Greens have the clearest path to victory here in 2017 with local electoral dynamics and this will likely be their 2nd seat won on election night.

2. Nanaimo:

2013 transposed result:

BC NDP: 45.7%
BC Lib: 37.2%
BC Green: 10.6%
BC Con: 5.4%

Assuming that the BC Con vote here moves over to the BC Libs in 2017, the spread is 3.1%. The BC Greens are targeting all Van Isle seats while the BC Libs have also targeted this seat early on. Candidates:

BC NDP: Leonard Krog - first elected in 1991 and one of BC NDP's most low profile MLAs.
BC Lib: Paris Gaudet - executive director of Innovation Island
BC Green: TBA

Nanaimo is kinda interesting in that the northern half is centre-right while the southern half is centre-left and the political divide is roughly at the Departure Bay Ferry terminal.

The 2015 fed election results may provides some political clues as well. The federal riding of Nanaimo- Ladysmith (with 2 underlying provincial districts) had the following results:

NDP: 33.2% (-12%)
Liberal: 23.5% (+17%)
Con: 23.4% (-17%)
Green: 19.8% (+13%)

Interesting that the NDP vote loss correlates to the Green vote gain while the Con vote loss correlates to the Lib vote gain. So where did the federal Green vote come from super-imposed upon the provincial riding? The fed Greens generally came in 4th place in polling stations within the northern centre-right portion. OTOH, the fed Greens won some polling stations and came in 2nd place in many polling stations in the southern centre-left portion of the riding.

Certainly a riding to watch in 2017.

3. North Island:

2013 transposed result:

BC NDP: 50.7%
BC Lib: 42.2%
BC Con: 7.1%

Assuming that the Con vote will go BC Lib in 2017 the spread would have been 1.4% even without a BC Green running back then.

North Island is interesting in that a large resource development base is extant in terms of forestry and mining. In addition, it also is continuing to witness an influx of Albertan retirees that extends from northern Nanaimo right up to Campbell River.

The BC NDP has always done well here due to the fact that a larger First Nations vote exists here that always votes heavily NDP. Again, both the BC Greens and BC Libs are targeting this seat and the BC Libs have come out early nominating Dallas Smith who is the local high profile president of the First Nation Nanwakolas Tribal Council. His reason for running: "growing the economy". As an aside, he is the 3rd First Nation chief nominated by the BC Libs for 2017. I don't ever recall the BC Libs running a First Nations candidate in a previous election.

Again, certainly a riding to watch in 2017.

[Lotuslander]

The BC Liberal candidate in North Island in 2009 was heavily hyped Kwakiutl First Nations chief Marion Wright...she didnt even come close and lost quite a bit of ground compared to what the BC Libs got in that riding in 2005 - even though she massively outspent the NDP incumbent.

The danger for the BC Liberals in running candidates who are First Nation is that much of the BC Liberal base outside of Vancouver is composed of extreme rightwing federal Tory/ex-Reform Party types who tend to be racist against First Nations. If the BC Liberal candidate is an "Indian" (sic.) the racists whose votes the BC Liberals depend on may feel uninspired and stay home on election day.

Congrats DL. You have finally posted an analytically intelligent post in this thread. Whether I agree or disagree with same is irrelevant.

Off the bat. Thanks. I forgot that the BC Libs ran FN chief Marion Wright in the same North Island seat back in 2009. Her popular vote share was reduced by 4% from the previous BC Lib incumbent, who lost to the BC NDP's Claire Travena, in 2005. Was her 4% reduction in popular vote share all due to racism?

Perhaps a bit. But doubtful for entire 4%. Remember that the BC Libs introduced the carbon tax back circa July, 2008, which caused an immediate backlash in BC, not only as another perceived "tax" but a tax on gasoline, natural gas heating, etc. on consumers. And strategically the BC NDP ran with same with their "Axe the Gas Tax" campaign all over the media. Even Layton came out to BC to participate in same. One would call same a brilliant right-wing populist anti-tax politics. And it worked well for the BC NDP in the 2009 election.

BTW, back in 2007, at convention, the BC NDP adopted "Sustainable BC", which also incorporated a carbon tax in BC. But politics always supersedes adopted party policy here in BC.

Again, I highly suspect that the BC NDP's "Axe the Gas Tax" campaign resonated quite well in rural BC and suspect that was the main reason that the BC NDP gained popular vote share all through rural BC inclusive of North Island.

BTW,  Mustel, a very high quality "CATI" pollster here in BC released its results on an opinion poll on the carbon tax almost exactly one year ago today. It's findings? Only 50% of BCers support the carbon tax.

More importantly,  the BC NDP has always been pro-resource development in BC. Was the case back in 2009 and was not a material issue in BC. Remember that North Island is also a resource dependent riding.

However, the anti-KM pipeline position by Adrian Dix back in 2013 was a pivotal moment n BC politics esp. with the BC NDP. I will re-iterate that the BC NDP has been hijacked by a hardcore enviro crowd within Van City proper and southern Van Isle. I cannot stress same enough.

The BC NDP is now not only opposed to KM but also LNG projects, nat gas pipelines, natural gas drilling/fracking in NE BC, BC Hydro's Site C dam, several mines, etc., etc. etc. Never, ever would have happened pre-2009 in BC. Imagine if Andrea Horwath held the same positions? Undoubtedly all northern ON NDP MPPs would be toast.

Now let's look at some data corroborating the BC NDP's anti-resource development positions apparently dictated by BC 's SW BC coast enviros. A good example is the Elk Valley in SE BC in the riding of Kootenay East. That area comprises the largest amount of metallurgical coal mines in Canada. BTW, met coal is utilized for steel-making in Asia and SE BC's open-pit mines, run by Teck Resources, are considered the highest quality, low-carbon on the planet.

Back in 2005, the BC NDP did quite well with the unionized USW coal miners in the region winning all polling stations in the Elk Valley. In 2009, it shifted a bit to the BC Libs. In 2013, the BC Libs won all polling stations therein by wide margins. Hell, in the 2015 fed election, the Cons won polling stations thereto by up to 75% popular vote share.

My analysis confirms the foregoing throughout interior BC where mines and other resource development is extant. Frankly, interior BC folks are spooked by the hardcore BC NDP enviro policies and are just voting for their livelihoods here.

Long-time Global BCTV legislative reporter Keith Baldrey also corroborates same:

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http://globalnews.ca/news/2991098/the-great-divide-between-resources-and-environment-will-dominate-b-c-election-baldrey/

To further corroborate the foregoing, during the 1990's, the BC NDP held the BC central interior ridings in Prince George, for example. Obviously the BC NDP was pro-resource development back in the day. Today? I follow all 3 BC political parties both in the news and in social media. Riding by riding. I have not yet seen any potential candidate step up to the plate for the BC NDP either in the Prince George ridings, the Cariboo ridings, etc.

OTOH, last night Prince George-Valemount BC Lib MLA and the BC Minister of Jobs, Tourism, Skills Training and Labour held her BC Lib X-mas gathering n her riding:



Yep. The same Shirley Bond that was invited to speak to the unionized BC Building Trades convention earlier this year, not only receiving a standing ovation, but was also invited and attended their national convention. The first time in BCBT history.

Draw your own inferences.

[Lotuslander]

The BC Green Party - the elephant in the room for the 2017 election.

Bit of history. Was formed back in 1983 after the formation of the German Green Party, which was co-founded by Petra Kelly in 1980. BC Greens have always been considered a fringe party led by flaky leaders and never have had much media attention.

Heading into the 2013 election... prior to same they were comatose. Dead website. No press releases. Never ran in by-elections. No party organization. A no-name leader by the name of Jane Sterk who nobody ever heard of. When the 2013 writ was dropped, Sterk seemed to have left her day job for the campaign. Again, really not much media exposure and, even then, Sterk came across as a boring wet noodle, to anyone who was paying attention, bereft of any personality. Again, the BC Greens always came across as some fringe enviro party and still did in 2013.

The BC Greens managed to scrape together candidates in 61/85 ridings just prior to the 2013 election. One BC Green candidate, however, did receive some provincial media attention in 2013 - esp. in the Greater Victoria area - Dr. Andrew Weaver from UVic who ran in the BC Lib held riding of Oak Bay-Gordon Head in Greater Victoria. Weaver was somewhat well-known in BC and has a relatively impressive CV.

Interestingly enough, the BC Greens were making headway in the Greater Victoria region during the 2013 writ period and it was certainly not because of BC Green leader Jane Sterk who was basically invisible throughout the campaign. It became apparent that Dr. Andrew Weaver was the galvanizing force in the Greater Victoria area for the BC Greens with local media attention, etc. In political terms, Dr. Weaver was the local "rising tide that lifts all boats" in terms of his local running mates.

One of the main reasons why BC NDP leader Adrian Dix pulled off his "Kinder Morgan Surprise" during the 2013 BC election was to kneecap the BC Greens. And to an extent it worked - suspect that it eventually prevented the BC Greens from winning their 2nd 2013 seat in Saanich North and the Islands (with then a BC Lib incumbent) as the BC NDP picked up the seat by the thinnest of margins due to the large BC NDP vote in the Gulf Islands - the same Gulf Islands that the fed Green obtained between 70% - 80%, on average, in all polling stations during the 2015 fed election.

Moreover, even after the "Kinder Morgan Surprise", apparently the BC NDP was so spooked about the BC Green surge in Greater Victoria (revealed in 2013 post-mortems) that Victoria-Swan Lake BC NDP MLA brought over former BC NDP premier Mike Harcourt, with moderate enviro credentials, and held a press conference to "define" the BC Greens, which received local media attention and also likely stunted the BC Greens surge thereto.

Then the 2013 leaders TV debate came and BC Green leader Sterk, with her first exposure to the BC public, received 5% in terms of "Who Won the Debate" in an internal BC Lib CATI poll, which I posted earlier on herein.

At the end of the day, the BC Greens still did quite well in the Greater Victoria area ridings in terms of popular vote shares v the 2009 BC election (even taking more 2009 BC Lib votes than BC NDP votes overall):

1. Saanich North and the Islands

BC NDP: 33.3% (-10.9%)
BC Lib: 32.8% (-11.9%)
BC Green: 32.1% (+20.8%)

2. Saanich South

BC NDP: 45.6% (-1.5%)
BC Lib: 35.3% (-9.9%)
BC Green: 15.3% (+8.6%)
BC Con: 3.3% (+3.3%)

3. Oak Bay-Gordon Head

BC Green: 40.4% (+31.5%)
BC Lib: 29.3% (-17.4%)
BC NDP: 28.4% (-16%)
BC Con: 1.9% (+1.9%)

4. Victoria-Swan Lake

BC NDP: 54.5% (-6.5%)
BC Green: 23.2% (+10.3%)
BC Lib: 22.3% (-4.7%)

5. Victoria-Beacon Hill

BC NDP: 48.7% (-6.7%)
BC Green: 33.9% (+16.7%)
BC Lib: 17% (-9.2%)

6. Esquimalt-Royal Roads

BC NDP: 48.2% (-4.7%)
BC Lib: 28.6% (-1.6%)
BC Green: 21.7% (+4.9%)

7. Juan De Fuca

BC NDP: 53.4% (-3.9%)
BC Lib: 30.7% (-2.9%)
BC Green: 15.9% (+7.2%)

Overall in the Greater Victoria area, the BC Greens took more 2009 BC Lib votes than 2009 BC NDP votes.

Moreover, the Great Victoria area is also the most volatile political area in BC in terms of federal, provincial, and municipal elections. To wit:

1. Most would not have predicted that the federal riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands would have been won by the federal Greens in the 2011 fed election;
2. Most would not have predicted that the BC Greens would have won the provincial riding of Oak Bay-Gordon Head in 2013, almost winning SNI, and major uptick in other Greater Victoria ridings;
3. Most would not have predicted that the municipal Green mayoral candidates would have won, over the incumbents, in both Victoria and Saanich in November, 2014;

Ergo, Greater Victoria is also an area to watch during the 2017 BC election.

As for the BC Greens, during the 2013 BC election, they obtained 8.1% popular vote share - basically the same as the 2 previous elections but with less candidates. In fact, the BC Greens ran 24 less candidates in 2013 than they did in 2009. One would think that the 2009 BC Green vote would have gone BC NDP in 2013? Wrong. In fact, the BC NDP even lost popular vote share in 18/24 of those ridings in 2013. Here are the tabulated results:

http://public.tableau.com/profile/cskelton#!/vizhome/GreenPartySplit/Dashboard1

[Copy link and place into browser]

Again, the BC Greens obtain votes from both the BC Libs, BC NDP, and apparently former non-voters.

Now heading into the 2017 BC election. The BC Greens have morphed from a fringe enviro party with an invisible leader into a relatively credible political party with a visible/viable leader. Seriously. Incumbent BC Green MLA Dr. Andrew Weaver was elected as the new BC Green Party leader in 2015. Since then, I have read/heard both moderate BC Libs and BC New Democrats describe Weaver as "bright", "hard-working", "down-to-earth", "authentic", "likable", "media savvy", "one's favourite uncle", etc.

BC Green leader Weaver is consistently in both the provincial and local media (TV, radio, print). Even just today. Seems that Weaver is moving the perception/impression of the BC Greens as just an enviro party but broadening same:

1. Economy - high tech sector, etc.
2. Energy - wind/solar;
3. Housing;
4. MSP (medical) premiums;
5. Education;
etc.

Seems that Weaver is positioning the BC Greens akin to a greenish, centrist "red" federal Liberal type party. In fact, in a few ridings, I postulate that the BC Greens have nominated candidates that are both higher profile/calibre than either the BC Libs/BC NDP to date. Moreover, the BC Greens have "red-lit" 2 candidates, to date, that are a media personality and a municipal politician respectively. One would think that beggar's can't be choosers but obviously not the case here.

Moreover, Weaver has his press secretary, the BC Greens have a director of communications, and they have a solid campaign manager in place. Many federal "red" Liberals have already joined his campaign.

BTW, long-time BC Province political newspaper columnist Mike Smyth thinks "Weaver will win 2017 leader's debate". Long-time Vancouver Sun political columnist has referenced same albeit "a 1991 Gordon Wilson moment is highly doubtful". Remember that most voters don't pay attention to the 4-week campaign until ~half-way through when the leaders debate is held. If Weaver does "win" the 2017 leader's debate would obviously result in big 'mo", volunteers, media attention, etc. Still all speculation and conjecture at this stage though.

Will say this again... the BC Greens will be the elephant in the room in the 2017 election and don't be surprised if they receive 15%+ (or who knows) of the popular vote share taking from both "soft" 2013 BC Lib and BC NDP voters.

[Lotuslander]

In your fast-forward to 2013 you seem to have forgotten 2001, when under Adrienne Carr they got a *lot* of media attention through seeming poised to pick up the BCNDP spoils and threaten them for 2nd place--they fell short, but their 12% share that year remains their highest to date...

Even in 2001, the BC Greens didn't receive that much media attention. It was a campaign whereby the media focused upon the BC Lib's Campbell and BC NDP's Dosanjh. Remember that one quite well.

Then BC Green leader Adrianne Carr was basically a twin of Elizabeth May and the then BC Greens were a party of/for granola bar eaters. As for the "spoils"? Not much there when ya have a 77 BC Lib - 2 BC NDP rout.

As an aside, just look at the southern German state of Baden-Württemberg - the second most "conservative" German state after Bavaria. In the 2016 Ba-Wu state election, the Greens came in first place, in terms of popular vote share, with the most seats. Ba-Wu also has the most popular German state premier in Green Party leader Winfried Kretschmann leading a green-black coalition gov't. Who would have thunk?

I'm not so sure Weaver will "fly" with voters. ... Andrew Weaver comes across as a stuffy, condescending upper class twit with posh British accent and an inability to pronounce the letter "r". as in "I should like a gwass of cwawet with my dinnah tonight"...people thinking of voting Green will likely drop him like a hot potato the moment they see him in action.

I suspect that most will disagree with ya:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25x_sSvZUIo

[Lotuslander]

If you "remember that one quite well", you don't remember the election *I* remember.  And what I remember is that the NDP fell into such disgrace and ignominy, the hitherto *truly* marginal GP (just under 2% of the provincial vote in 1996!) rose as an alternative disgruntled-left option to the point where they were virtually equalling the NDP in opinion polling.

FWIW, off the bat, I actually wrote a paper on the BC 2001 BC election, after the fact, in a 100-level elective poli-sci course back in my UBC days.

Firstly, ya state that the BC NDP "were virtually equalling the NDP in opinion polling". Completely incorrect. Only 2 pollsters were extant in BC at that time - Mustel and Ipsos-Reid, which were both "CATI" pollsters.

Just went over to the internet archive and looked at Mustel's BC polling numbers throughout 2000 and 2001. The BC Greens NEVER were close to the BC NDP in opinion polling figures. AT ALL! BC Greens were always wayyyy behind the BC NDP - even in their dismal state. What are you smokin'?

Now the "greenest" seat in BC is Nelson-Creston. Bar none. No doubt about that. So I went over to the Election Prediction Project website for the 2001 BC election and reviewed the comments therein for the riding. Low and behold Bernard von Schulmann made a post therein - the same BvS who I referred to in an earlier post herein who is a self-described "centrist environmentalist" and former BC Green Party member.

His take on the "green" riding of Nelson-Creston on April 21, 2001?

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Yeah. That's right. A 3rd place prediction for the BC Greens. And he was pretty well "bang-on" with his prediction compared to the actual result... BC Lib: 39%/BC NDP: 32%/BC Green: 22%!

BTW, back in 2001 (and only in 2001) the BC Greens had a very unique campaign lawn sign. Describe it. I know.... ya can't. Because you obviously have no insight into the 2001 BC election. Period.  

... the way you try to drive in the point re May/Carr/Sterk still has an undercurrent of flaky-broad-bashing misogyny about it.  (Of course, Andrew Weaver's male, and for you that changes everything, I guess.  Premier Clark notwithstanding.)

Haha. That comment is soooooooo far out in left field I don't even know how to respond to same. OK. I will. If either my mom... or my Svenska wife... or her best buds.... or my li'l sis... or her best buds... would read your statement... they would undoubtedly and categorically describe ya as a complete and utter flake. It is what it is.

[Lotuslander]

And the latest news involving the ongoing soap opera in the fringe BC Conservative Party:

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http://www.kelownadailycourier.ca/news/article_06339450-c73c-11e6-a599-7fca37014510.html#pq=R6VmHs

[Lotuslander]

Sigh. I should have previously been much more clearer.

Again. Back pre-2001 and during the 4-week 2011 election writ period, both Mustel and Ipsos-Reid were the only BC pollsters. And both were "CATI" pollsters.

During the 2001 writ period, both had the BC Libs, at various times up to between 65% and 72% in terms of voting intention. It was an unstoppable political juggernaut that portended a political slaughter in the making. The then granola-bar eating BC Greens were an irrelevant political side-show. If any. And still considered "fringe" back then.

Again. Final result: 77 BC Libs/2 BC NDP. And the BC NDP was lucky to hold on to those 2 seats by 2.1% and 11.4% margins respectively.

Back then, Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer wrote, just before 2001 e-day, that a then unnamed BC NDP cabinet minister confided to him as follows:

"It feels akin to the fall of Saigon, back in 1975, when the NVA/Viet Kong were on the outskirts of Saigon and we are now awaiting helicopter evac from the rooftop of the U.S. embassy."

Since the BC Libs back then were up to 65% - 72% voting intention at various points in time (actually received 58%) nothing else mattered in that unique political dynamic.

Fast forward to 2017. Unlike "your mother's" Green party (pre-2017), the 2017 BC Green Party is a completely different political animal moving from fringe status to credible in terms of daily MSM coverage/quality of candidates, etc. Quite obvious if one is "on the ground" in BC. Weaver is positioning the BC Greens as a greenish, centrist "red" federal Liberal Party. Unlike pre-2017, those that don't take the Weaver-led BC Greens seriously/under-estimates them (both BC Libs and BC NDP) will undoubtedly be in for a surprise.

And I will leave the last word on the matter to BC NDP leader John Horgan in an interview with Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer: "The BC Greens will likely mow our lawn in 2017". Interpret that metaphor as ya wish.

PS. BC NDP leader John Horgan held an interview with the Globe & Mail a few days ago. Honestly, does this snippet therein "inspire confidence" in anyone?

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[Lotuslander]

I think you made up that quote about mowing the lawn...

Haha. I was previously paraphrasing from memory... But (after much Googling) here's the actual BC NDP leader John Horgan quote from Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer's column of January 27, 2015:

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Yes. A quibble. But what's the diff?!

[Lotuslander]

The following 2 posts are not to respond to the poster "Adam T" per se. These posts intend to flesh out and add further context to his comments thereto.

I will start here:

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I have previously provided, up-thread, an analysis of the foregoing ridings and will re-iterate some of same and provide some more salient factors thereto.

1. Burnaby municipal council is controlled by the BCA (Burnaby Citizens Association). They have been a very effective muni org. for decades. One must be a member of the BC NDP in order to be a member of the BCA. Typical municipal election turnouts in Burnaby are quite low - in the lower to upper 20% range. BTW, the BCA controls all council and school board seats in Burnaby. The centre-right has always been a joke in terms of their "election machine" thereto. Moreover, CUPE is heavily involved municipally in BC in terms of muni GOTV including Burnaby.

Since the BCA "controls" Burnaby municipally, Burnaby mayor Derek Corrigan is the chief spokes-person for Burnaby in all media. Burnaby councillors have no profile at all. Since the BC NDP provincially has always been lacking in terms of Chinese-Canadian candidates (unlike the BC Libs), they brought several "on-board" municipally in Burnaby in order to foster same potentially for future provincial/federal candidacies. Problem is both have been long-time NDP party stalwarts - Chen is long-time constituency assistant for MP Peter Julian while Kang is involved in BCTF.

Moreover Burnaby councillor Anna Kang is a terrible fit in Burnaby-Deer Lake. As I stated in a previous post - Burnaby council has rezoned 1,000's of units of 1960's/1970's era 3-storey walk-up rental apartment buildings to condominium towers. Well over 100 condo towers (half as high as 40-storeys) have either been completed, under construction, or in planning stage right now. Many of these rental apartment buildings are being torn down right now - these rental apt. building polling stations have traditionally heavily supported the BC NDP whereas the new condo tower polling stations have heavily supported the BC Libs in this marginal riding. Large protests have taken place in Burnaby and said matter has been all over both the provincial TV/print/radio media as well as local media.

The major Burnaby "Demoviction" spokesperson in the riding has been Rick McGowan, a teacher and founder of the Metrotown Residents’ Association opposing these Burnaby "Demovictions". BC Green leader Andrew Weaver attended a Burnaby "Demoviction" rally opposing same. BC NDP leader John Horgan has refused to attend same - can't blame him as he obviously doesn't wanna see a headline such as "BC NDP leader opposes Demovictions by Burnaby NDP council". Now Rick McGowan is the BC Green candidate in the riding who may well "eat" Burnaby councillor/BC NDP candidate Anna Kang's "lunch" in 2017. BTW, Kang is quite shy in terms of persona.

And lastly is newly nominated Columbia-River Revelstoke BC NDP candidate Gerry Taft in an open riding when popular incumbent BC NDP MLA Norm Macdonald stepped down as he likely saw the writing on the wall. BTW, when a BC NDP male candidate steps down, he must either be replaced by a female or a male of some "legitimate" minority group.

So the local BC NDP nomination contest was between Invermere mayor Gerry Taft and female Invermere councillor Spring Hawes (who was also wheelchair bound). After vetting, Taft was approved by BC NDP to run but his "minority"status, for the first time ever, was never disclosed. Yet Taft won. When local media inquired about his "minority" status he stated that he did not want the local BC NDP members to know. Or his family. Bizarre. Then the provincial media (Vancouver Sun, for example) focused on the matter as his female wheel-chair opponent Spring Hawes also thought some wrong-doing was going on. Taft finally gave into the pressure and declared that he was 'bi-sexual" even with a wife and newborn child. Remember, this is a somewhat socially conservative riding. Ever since then, Taft has been silent on social media. Now, after 13 years, Taft has announced that he has sold his "gelato shop". Coincidence?

Gets even more interesting. The BC NDP has never run a a disabled candidate... let alone a wheelchair-bound candidate. The current BC Libs have 2 wheelchair bound MLAs. The 1980's Socreds had one wheelchair bound MLA (Doug Mowatt). The female BC NDP candidate Spring Hawes (also wheelchair bound) believes the fix was in for her based upon her various media statements. On top of that, a BC Disability spokesperson, Paul Gilbert, also runs a Facebook page with ~9,000 followers. His take?

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https://www.facebook.com/notes/bc-disability-caucus/the-bc-ndps-bad-apple/184735010551029

16 New Democratic candidates have been nominated in non NDP ridings so far. Those who hold or held municipal office are:
1.Kamloops-South Thompson, Nancy Bepple, Kamloops City Councillor 2008-2014
2.Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Lisa Beare, School Trustee
3.Penticton, Tarik Sayeed, Penticton City Councillor
4.Kootenay East, Randal MacNair, Fernie City Councillor and former Fernie Mayor
5.Abbotsford West, Preet Rai, School Trustee
6.Port Moody-Coquitlam, Rick Glumac, Port Moody City Councillor
7.Parksville-Qualicum, Sue Powell, Parksville City Councillor

1. Nancy Bepple (Kamloops-South Thompson) - In the November, 2014 Kamloops municipal election, Bepple placed in 16th place for council out of 8 spots and was uncontested in the BC NDP nomination race. Local BC Green Party candidate and Kamloops councillor Donavan Cavers place 4th/8th place. Hell, Kamloops mayor Peter Milobar, with ~80% popular vote share in 2014, won the neighbouring riding of Kamloops-North Thompson in a 3-way race for the BC Libs after the BC Lib incumbent stepped down. The bc NDP candidate is a public sector union activist for the HEU. And K-ST is the most centre-right of the 2 ridings. BTW,  "Kamloops" has always been BC's bellwether riding. Since 1903, the political  party that has won Kamloops has won Gov't. Since Kamloops has been split, K-NT is now that "bellwether riding".

2. 2.Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Lisa Beare, School Trustee - Beare is also the VP of a CUPE local and that BC NDP riding was uncontested.

3.Penticton, Tarik Sayeed, Penticton City Councillor - Agree that he is a good, young, "hi-tech" candidate. He placed 8/8 in the November, 2014 muni election. Problem is that the riding is WASPish. When the BC NDP ran Lakhwinder Jhal in an adjacent riding in 2009, the BC NDP dropped 8% . Remember that this area is not multi-cultural Vancouver. Finally, BC NDP HQ favoured candidate in this riding was Toni Boot.

4.Kootenay East, Randal MacNair, Fernie City Councillor and former Fernie Mayor - He ran for the BC NDP nomination in 2013 and lost against 2013 BC NDP candidate Norma Blissett who, in turn, lost by a a 26% margin on e-day. The 2017 BC NDP nomination rematch has MacNair the BC NDP nominee.

5.Abbotsford West, Preet Rai, School Trustee - he also ran back in 2013.

6.Port Moody-Coquitlam, Rick Glumac, Port Moody City Councillor - apparently most of his local council motions deal with outside matters "trying to save the planet'".

7.Parksville-Qualicum, Sue Powell, Parksville City Councillor - a very long-time BC NDP/ social activist running in the most right-wing riding on Van Isle.

Simply put, the BC NDP is nominating "municipal" candidates that are "wrong fits" in their respective ridings. Politics 101 dictates that one nominates local high profile municipal politicians in ridings that are not only previous "marginal races" but also "right demographic/political fits". Obviously not here.

[Lotuslander]

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One other nominated candidate, Jagrup Brar was an NDP MLA from 2004-2013, while former M.P (2011-2015) Jinny Sims has been nominated in Surrey-Panorama.

Jagrup Brar was defeated in Surrey-Fleetwood in 2013. Same as Harry Lali in Nicola-Nicola. And you think that it's a "good" thing for defeated candidates to run again, instead of politically fresh faces?
As for Surrey-Panorama, with transposed results, the BC Libs still win comfortably in 2013. And since then, major SFD as well as townhouse developments have continued within the riding unabated. The fed NDP came in 3rd place in much of the underlying provincial riding in 2015, while the fed Libs won most of the remaining underlying polling stations. Basically the BC NDP is running a failed recycled candidate here.

Well known centre-left BC blogger Laila Yuile, who resides in the riding, and knows same tweeted this out a couple of months ago:

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Matters have become more interesting, just recently, within the northern Surrey Indo-Canadian community. To preface, Barinder Rasode was a northern Surrey BC NDP constituency assistant in both 2005 and 2009 IIRC. Rasode was also a centre-left Surrey city councillor. During the November, 2014 Surrey municipal election, Rasode ran as the centre-left candidate supported by CUPE and former BC NDP MLA/cabinet minister/BC NDP party prez Moe Sihota et al.

The final 2014 Surrey mayoral results:

1. Linda Hepner (Dianne Watts successor) - centre-right - 50.7%
2. Doug McCallum (defeated by Dianne Watts) - right-wing - 28%
3. Barinder Rasode - centre-left - 21.3%

Within the past two weeks, it has become quite apparent that high profile, centre-left former Surrey councillor and mayoral candidate Basinder Rasode has defected from the BC NDP over to the BC Libs based upon her Twitter feed:

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The foregoing is not an isolated case. I have seen previously centre-left BC NDP folk on social media move over to either the BC Libs or BC Greens. Quite eye-opening actually.

Also, for those who might have been concerned that the NDP would lose its connections to the high tech sector when Matt Toner bolted from the NDP to the Green Party, three of the candidates nominated so far hold management positions in the high tech sector or own high tech related businesses:

1.Morgane Oger, Vancouver-False Creek
2.Tarik Sayeed, Penticton
3.Rick Glumac, Port Moody-Coquitlam

Hell, back in 2013 high-profile hi-tech entrepreneur Matt Toner was the best BC NDP candidate that they ran IMHO - "outside the box" in terms of the usual SJWs, social activists, enviro activists, and public sector union activists.

In any event, centrist Matt Toner left the BC NDP for the BC Greens. Why? He came to the conclusion that the BC NDP “is trying to solve 1960s problems with 1990s people.” One must also remember that the riding of Vancouver-False Creek is centre-right demographically - contains most of the condo towers in downtown Van City mostly populated by urban professionals. In 2011 federally, many/most polling stations therein shifted to fed Con from fed Lib previously in 2006. Basically a red tory/blue liberal demographic.

The BC NDP replacement candidate in 2017 is Morgane Oger. Her only claim to fame is as a champion of transgendered-rights. That's why she was nominated. Honestly, both I and most of the electorate don't give a sh**te about a candidate's personal sexual background. All parties run candidates of LGBQT background but they don't brag about it. Here, for the first time, that's the case. One helluva political turnoff, IMHO, even when the riding is a BC NDP dead zone.

A fourth New Democrat, Bowinn Ma, in North Vancouver-Lonsdale is a professional engineer.

Bowinn Ma is a long time BC NDP activist and SJW. Furthermore, she has no profile in the riding but is of Chinese-Canadian decent - NV-L does not have much of a Chinese-Canadian demographic. OTOH, back in 2013, the BC NDP ran high profile North Van City councillor Craig Keating here.

More seriously though, this election to me is resembling more and more what happened in 1972.  The NDP thought it would win the 1969 election with the urbane lawyer Tom Berger as leader, but, sort of just like in 2013, he 'frightened' British Columbians with the idea of an NDP government (The NDP's slogan in that election was 'ready to govern.')  

After the defeat in 1969, most pundits thought Social Credit was a lock to be reelected in 1972 and then new leader Dave Barrett played into that by saying (this wasn't the NDP's slogan) "we just want to reduce the number of Social Credit MLAs"  Barrett later joked that to fellow New Democrats he would complete his sentence by adding "to zero."

Haha. Honestly, that's gotta be the (or one of) dumbest analogies in this thread. Back in 1972, Social Credit Premier WAC Bennett was 20 years in power. He was 72 (?) years old. Bennett led a mostly right-wing, socially conservative caucus with many elected back in the 1950's. By the mid-1960's, social revolution/reformism began to take hold and that impacted the BC political scene. No doubt.

BTW, if a political leader decides to hang on for more than a decade akin to WAC Bennett, without political leadership "change", the electorate will make that "change" for them. Poli 101. As a matter of fact, 1972 was the first year that my folks were eligible to vote - they both voted NDP as WAC Bennett considered himself to be a "God". Ouch.

Now the year 1969 has also been brought up. As a matter of fact, I have also brought up the year 1969 myself over the past few years. In that vein, I have no doubt that the BC NDP will receive its lowest popular vote share since 1969 in 2017 aside from the 2001 debacle. Just too much CATI data, corroborating evidence, and anecdotal evidence.

I don't know if John Horgan will play up the NDP's underdog status in this election or not though.

Horgan is the most invisible BC political leader that I have ever seen. As Global BC TV news political analyst Keith Baldrey has stated, Horgan deliberately eschews/avoids the BC media. Have never seen that before. In fact, media analysis confirms that the BC preem receives BC's most MSM coverage, then BC Green leader Weaver, and then BC NDP leader Horgan in 3rd place. Again, that has never happened before. At all.

Moreover, long-time Vancouver Sun analyst Vaughn Palmer recently wrote that BC NDP leader Horgan is "off-putting" in terms of his persona. He has previously wrote about Horgan's numerous "bozo eruptions" in the BC legislature requiring other BC NDP MLAs to hold him back.

Now, on social media, many BC NDP stalwarts want Horgan to step down in favour of someone else in fear of losing the 2017 BC election. Go figure.

[Lotuslander]

As for the BC NDP nomination race itself, always tough to call... but I am leaning toward Georgia Collins. Collins ran for the fed NDP nomination in Cowichan-Malahat for the 2015 race, in a 4-person race IIRC, and was just narrowly edged out by now incumbent fed NDP MP Alistair MacGregor.

Collins is now the local fed NDP riding prez and is attractive, has a good persona and has some profile on a local high profile Shawnigan Lake issue within the riding.

In the foregoing, I was referring to the Cowichan Valley BC NDP nomination race set for early January, 2017 and that Georgia Collins was the highest profile candidate in the riding and I suspected that she would win. While Cowichan Valley will be a very tight race in 2017, had Georgia Collins won she would have been a major star in the BC NDP caucus.

Well, tonight Georgia Collins posted this on her Facebook page:

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HUGE loss here. Not an isolated case and points to, amongst many other indicators, the BC NDP heading for a train-wreck in 2017. BTW, considerable blow-back and angst tonight among BC NDP supporters, in social media, as well.

Toss the foregoing into long-time BC political analyst Keith Baldrey's column (Global BCTV) and quip thereto from today and one should begin to get the drift:

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And then might as well toss in well-known, centre-left, anti-BC Lib blogger Laila Yuile's tweet from yesterday regarding apparent BC voter majority support for the BC Libs :

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[Lotuslander]

Again, keep an eye on the Andrew Weaver-led BC Greens - Weaver is positioning the party as a greenish, centrist, federal "red" Liberal type of party moving them from fringe status into credibility.

Must say that the BC Greens are putting together/assembling a very credible/impressive slate of candidates to date. In some/many cases, even better than the two majors. Apparently several mayors are in the pipeline (one in Greater Victoria) and yesterday the first of 4 CEOs of high-tech companies was announced:

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http://www.bcgreens.ca/announcement_event_for_jerry_kroll_campaign_for_vancouver_mount_pleasant_tomorrow

[Lotuslander]

Again, keep an eye on the Andrew Weaver-led BC Greens - Weaver is positioning the party as a greenish, centrist, federal "red" Liberal type of party moving them from fringe status into credibility.

That makes two parties seeking to replicate that strategy.

As far as I can see, and I follow BC politics to a "T", only BC Greens following that strategy.

[Lotuslander]

Huntingdon retiring. https://twitter.com/keithbaldrey/status/819006502233112577

Yeah. Saw that within past 1/2 hour as well. Nobody saw that coming. At all. Unfortunate and big surprise. BTW, Vicki Huntington was a greenish red tory and the daughter of 1980's- era federal PC cabinet minister Ron Huntington (West Vancouver federal riding).

I grew up in the riding of Delta South (Tsawwassen/Ladner). Vicki Huntington was a slam dunk to win again in 2017. It has small "c" conservative demographics and now will likely revert back to the BC Lib fold - their candidate is a municipal councillor who topped both the Tsawwassen/Ladner polling stations in the November, 2014 Delta municipal election.

PS. Vicki's story in the local Delta Optimist newspaper:

http://www.delta-optimist.com/news/vicki-huntington-not-running-again-1.6945508

[Lotuslander]

In other BC political news today, a business group has now launched a major $multi-million ad campaign against BC NDP leader John Horgan.

Horgan has a major problem here as, unlike previous BC NDP leaders, Horgan remains essentially invisible in the BC media. In fact, Global BC Newshour political analyst Keith Baldrey has previously written that Horgan "deliberately eschews the media". Frankly, a bizarre strategy esp. considering that Horgan is mostly unknown to the BC electorate.

As a result, Horgan sets himself up to be negatively "defined" to the BC public by others.

Was a major news item tonight on the Global BC 6 pm news with Keith Baldrey (As an aside, Global BC's 6 pm newscast, for decades, has been the highest rated newscast in BC):

http://globalnews.ca/video/3173576/election-attack-ads-target-john-horgan/

[Lotuslander]

As for the BC NDP nomination race itself, always tough to call... but I am leaning toward Georgia Collins. Collins ran for the fed NDP nomination in Cowichan-Malahat for the 2015 race, in a 4-person race IIRC, and was just narrowly edged out by now incumbent fed NDP MP Alistair MacGregor.

Collins is now the local fed NDP riding prez and is attractive, has a good persona and has some profile on a local high profile Shawnigan Lake issue within the riding.

In the foregoing, I was referring to the Cowichan Valley BC NDP nomination race set for early January, 2017 and that Georgia Collins was the highest profile candidate in the riding and I suspected that she would win. While Cowichan Valley will be a very tight race in 2017, had Georgia Collins won she would have been a major star in the BC NDP caucus.

Well, tonight Georgia Collins posted this on her Facebook page:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

HUGE loss here. Not an isolated case and points to, amongst many other indicators, the BC NDP heading for a train-wreck in 2017. BTW, considerable blow-back and angst tonight among BC NDP supporters, in social media, as well.

More NDP fallout in the same Cowichan Valley riding (on Van Isle) today:

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http://www.cowichanvalleycitizen.com/news/410572595.html

Vancouver Sun political reporter tweeted his thoughts today:

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Clark has approved Kinder Morgan.

Yep. Was major news all over BC media yesterday. The BC Environmental Assessment Office approved KM with about 37 additional conditions over the feds.

Strange thing though. Yesterday, heard BC NDP leader John Horgan make this statement on the news:

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Obviously in reference to the KM decision. Raised the eyebrows of many... inclusive of some media. Seems that Horgan is pitting "US" on the coast against interior BC residents. First thought that came to my mind was that Horgan was essentially throwing the BC NDP under the bus in interior BC.

This afternoon, Kamloops-North Thompson BC Lib nominee Peter Milobar (current Kamloops mayor) asked Horgan to apologize:

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http://cfjctoday.com/article/555398/milobar-upset-ndp-leaders-comments

Yep. The 2017 campaign has unofficially begun.

[Lotuslander]

That's "old" news. Reported upon extensively by Gary Mason of the Globe and Mail et al last fall.

Back then, one of the the most bizarre matters coming out of same was BC NDP leader John Horgan flying out to Toronto to attend a $5,000/plate BC NDP fundraiser organized by a Ontario nuclear energy lobbyist. And then lying about it to a BC reporter.

The BC Greens, who have disavowed all union/business donations, are laughing all the way to the political bank on this issue.

[Lotuslander]

From long time Global BC news political analyst Keith Baldrey: [snippets]

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http://globalnews.ca/news/3220692/bc-ndps-john-horgan-charts-a-new-green-path/

Essentially, the BC NDP has now written off resource-industry dependent interior BC ridings and likely 3 incumbent BC NDP seats - Skeena, Stikine, and Columbia River-Revelstoke will be lost in 2017. Even the resource dependent riding of North Island on Van Isle may be lost, as another example.

Seems that the BC NDP is shrinking its potential voter pool, as a result, focusing on a matter that will likely only resonate in some inner Van City proper ridings and southern Van Isle ridings. Also seems that the NDP sees its political enemy as the BC Greens and is leaving the BC Liberals free reign everywhere else.

Problem with that strategy is that not only does it not lead to government but if voters have a real Green Party and a faux Green Party to select from, they typically vote for the real thing. Witness the 2015 CA federal election with the Mulcair-led NDP positioning themselves as "Liberals" at the outset of the campaign with the electorate deciding to actually vote for the real thing on e-day.

BTW, the first thing that came to mind with the BC NDP's new "Green Shift" was federal Liberal leader Stephane Dion and his then "Green Shift" during the 2008 federal election campaign. Didn't work out too well at the end of the proverbial day.

[Lotuslander]

Just a follow-up to my post yesterday. Today, BC NDP leader John Horgan held a press conference on the BC NDP's climate change policies. Here is where the matter certainly gets interesting...

1 1/2 hours before Horgan's press conference, the BC Liberals leaked a strategic internal BC NDP document referencing the BC NDP's climate change policies entitled "Communications Planning -
DRAFT NOT FOR CIRCULATION".

Here's the document:

https://www.scribd.com/document/338245199/NDP-Communications-Plan-DRAFT#fullscreen&from_embed

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/b-c-liberals-undercut-ndps-climate-plan-with-leaked-copy

Tonight on Global BC's 6 pm newscast, long-time political analyst Keith Baldrey stated that it appears a "mole is present in the highest echelons of BC NDP leaking documents to BC Liberals, which must be disconcerting to BC NDP leader Horgan".

Tonight, Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer references same in his column [snippet]:

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http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-john-horgan-spins-leak-on-carbon-tax-hike-to-pump-up-ndp-plan

Never a dull moment in BC politics.

[Lotuslander]

Epilogue.

Vancouver Sun legislative reporter Rob Shaw noted in his news article today:

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And Rob Shaw just posted on Twitter:

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Begs the question... what's the motivation behind the obvious internal BC NDP "mole"?! And what more damage can he do? Wouldn't be surprised if the BC NDP is conducting an internal witch hunt right now.

[Lotuslander]

More on this "Deep Throat" within the upper echelon BC NDP ranks tonight [snippet]:

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https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-ndp-doesnt-need-a-secret-agent-in-its-ranks/article33902362/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&cmpid=rss1&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&service=mobile

Long-time Global BC TV political analyst Keith Baldrey also stated last night on the 6 pm newscast that, in his ~3-decade role, he has never seen anything like this before.

Something akin to "Deep Throat" during the 1970's Nixon era... except reversed.

[Lotuslander]

That's a bit over the top DL. But you are correct on the "Quick Wins" matter involving the BC Libs. Received considerable media attention commencing back in February, 2013 - 3 months before the May, 2013 BC election - moving forward.

It involved the BC NDP leaking a document from 13 months earlier dated January, 2012. BTW here's one of the first media pieces by CBC dated February 27, 2013:

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http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/leaked-documents-reveal-liberals-plan-to-win-ethnic-vote-1.1325543

I will further clarify what Global BC TV political analyst Keith Baldrey stated about the recent BC NDP "leaks" - To paraphrase: "In my almost 30 years I have never seen an opposition party's internal strategic documents leaked to the gov't party".

Remember, election campaigns are akin to military ops. And when a political party (the BC Libs in this instance) is in receipt of "real time" internal strategic BC NDP documents... it's akin to delivering your opponents strategy to the other side on a military battlefield. The general in receipt of same will make appropriate moves to render his opponent  impotent in order to go in for the proverbial kill.

To date, these "real time" internal BC NDP strategic documents (with all detailed briefing notes) include:

1. BC NDP's climate strategy;
2. BC NDP's plan to ban grizzly bear hunt;
3. BC NDP provincial council meeting notes;

Who knows what else has been passed along but not disclosed by BC Libs?

Undoubtedly a "mole" or "Deep Throat" exists within the highest echelon of the BC NDP.

As an aside, about 10 months ago, a major internal political document of the USW was leaked to the BC media regarding concerns about the BC NDP's apparent anti-resource development policies, etc. Remember that the USW membership in interior BC mines (metallurgical coal/ base metal) typically vote heavily BC Liberal during elections. Here is the leaked memo:

https://www.scribd.com/doc/308880372/Steelworker-Memo#fullscreen&from_embed

The contents therein were very revealing. OTOH, western Canadian USW director Steve Hunt is still publicly a major BC NDP leader Horgan backer.

Now we are seeing the BC NDP morphing into a quasi-"Green Party". Also seems that the BC NDP is seeing the BC Green Party as its actual political enemy - not the BC Libs. Bizarre strategy BTW.

With the foregoing background... just speculation and conjecture on my part... but my hunch is that the "Deep Throat" within the BC NDP may well be a pro-resource, private sector union individual extremely unhappy with Horgan's plan to morph the BC NDP into another BC Green Party.

My 2 cents.

[Lotuslander]

Another matter involving BC NDP leader John Horgan and his name recognition. Last Thursday, the major Metro Vancouver news/talk show/radio station CKNW went to the streets of downtown Vancouver in order to ascertain if they know who John Horgan even is. Their findings:

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http://www.cknw.com/2017/02/02/who-is-this-man-ndp-leader-john-horgan-on-the-electoral-challenge-ahead/

That's just 7% name recognition.

Moreover, BC NDP leader has not yet been "defined" to the BC electorate.

A business group called "Say Anything John" has now swamped BC TV media with their TV ad, which I mentioned in this thread earlier on. Said TV ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tO39hzefUZo

Take this as a grain of salt if ya wish... but I have asked, what I would call non-political swing voters, their impression of the individual in this TV ad - John Horgan (watching in my presence). Their overall response? To paraphrase... "this guy is a liar like Trump". Not good.

Unlike the previous 3 BC elections (2005/2009/2013), the BC NDP appears lackadaisical & drifting in this electoral cycle. Not a good omen methinks.

[Lotuslander]

The venerable BC Conservative Party. What gives?

Prior to the 2013 election, they certainly had a political opening, with the BC Liberals in disarray, and ran their highest number of candidates since 1960 ... 56/85 ridings. Then BC Con leader John Cummins was even in the 2013 televised leadership debate.

BTW, prior to the 2013 BC election, Global BC TV political analyst Keith Baldrey stated that "most people are tuning out the BC Liberals". A then obvious "change election" was in the making.

In the 2013 BC election, the BC Cons obtained 4.8% popular vote share - their highest since the 1979 BC election at 5.1%. Moreover, during the 2013 BC election, the BC Con vote split undoubtedly cost the BC Liberals 2 seats - Skeena (NW BC) and Burnaby-Lougheed (Metro Vancouver). It's much easier to parse the BC Con vote than the BC Green vote BTW.

So what has happened to the BC Conservative Party? They receive absolutely no media attention. The only news article that I can find (previously posted) was an obscure article in a Kelowna newspaper regarding an investigation into its party president.

To re-iterate, the BC Conservatives are leaderless, insolvent, and involved in in-fighting. If they run candidates in 2017, they will likely achieve only ~1% popular vote share akin to the 7 BC elections between 1983 - 2009.

Undoubtedly they will not be appearing at the 2017 televised leadership debate. Even Global BC TV political analyst has stated that they are now "fringe".

Moreover, a recent petition on Change.org by BC Conservative Party members requests the following, with detailed reasons: "Demand for the resignation of the President of the BC Conservative Party." It was also signed by former BC Con leadership contender Konrad Pimiskern:

https://www.change.org/p/members-of-the-bc-conservative-party-demand-the-resignation-of-the-current-president-of-the-board

In the aftermath of the 2013 BC election and until recently at least 3 former 2013 BC Con candidates have joined and are now supporting the BC Liberals:

1. Peace River South (NW BC) Kurt Peats (former RCMP officer);
2. Kamloops-South Thompson (central BC) Peter Sharp (former RCMP officer);
3. Burnaby North (Metro Vancouver) Wayne Marklund (businessman);

Moving "toward" the other end of the political spectrum, more specifically federal Liberal, summer Olympic silver medalist Dave Calder served on the BC NDP riding executive of Saanich South (a Greater Victoria riding on Vancouver Isle). Calder was also a major supporter of incumbent BC NDP MLA during the previous 2013 BC election.

Interestingly enough, Dave Calder let his BC NDP membership lapse in 2014 and several months ago joined the BC Liberals. More surprisingly, Calder is now the BC Liberal candidate in Saanich South. The BC Greens have also nominated a well-known local teacher in the riding. As an interesting aside, all 3 candidates know each other personally.

Prior to 2013, during the 2005 and 2009 elections, the BC NDP narrowly won both races in Saanich South over the BC Libs by less than a 2% margin. During 2013, both the BC Libs and BC Greens ran fence-posts with hair in Saanich South. 2013 results with 2009 changes in brackets:

BC NDP: 45.6% (-1.54%)
BC Lib: 35.3% (-9.9%)
BC Green: 15.3% (+8.59%)
BC Con: 3.3% (+3.3%)

That said, incumbent Saanich South BC NDP MLA Lana Popham is popular in the riding and I have previously placed this riding in the BC NDP win column for 2017. However, Greater Victoria is the most politically volatile area in BC and it is still too early to ascertain any potential significant political changes/trends at this date.

[Lotuslander]

Yesterday, BC's 3 foremost media political analysts:

1. Vancouver Sun's Vaughn Palmer
2. Global BC TV's Keith Baldrey
3. Province newspaper's Mike Smyth

.... were on stage, in front of a large crowd, at the Urban Development Institute (UDI) conference candidly discussing/answering questions about the forthcoming May, 2017 BC election.

Two major points stood out to me.

1. Global BC's Keith Baldrey stated that if next Tuesday's budget has a 1% PST sales tax cut - then it would be a political "game changer- "central issue of campaign".

As an aside, a 1% PST cut equates to a ~$900 million in annual revenue budget loss. To put the foregoing into further context, BC currently has a $2 billion+ annual operating budget surplus (5th consecutive in a row) with among the lowest provincial personal/corporate taxation rates in Canada. Furthermore, BC also is the only province in Canada with an "AAA" credit rating with Moody's, S & P, Fitch & DBRS. Problem is that those $2 billion/annual surpluses are not sustainable moving forward.

2. Global BC's Keith Baldrey also stated that one BC NDP MLA had told him that, if the foregoing is the case, the BC NDP would then "have to go back to square 1" in terms of their own platform. The BC NDP's platform includes numerous annual program spending commitments as well as a new annual spending commitment known as $10/day child daycare - an annual program that would cots the BC treasury between $1.5 - $2 billion/annum every year moving forward. Interesting to note that the BC NDP, prior to the 2013 BC election, stated that such a program "is too expensive" & "just not affordable".

Obviously, the BC NDP platform would then place BC into major annual operating deficit territory, which, historically, is anathema to the centrist BC electorate.

3. Province newspaper columnist Mike Smyth also stated that BC Green party leader Andrew Weaver is a very astute political leader and will do very well in the always important TV leadership debate. Moreover, he also stated that Weaver will have a "political field day" at the TV leader's debate with BC NDP leader Horgan on numerous issues, inclusive of political party financing.

As a separate aside, both pre-writ as well as during the writ period, it became increasingly apparent to me that the 2013 BC election had very similar dynamics/narratives as the 1983 BC election. And that it was!

As for the forthcoming May, 2017 BC election, in terms of the pre-writ period, it is also now becoming increasingly apparent to me that it also has very similar dynamics/narratives akin to the 1969 BC election. Guess that we will have to wait and see.