2017 British Columbia election

[Lotuslander]

New opinion poll by Mainstreet Research this morn. Caveat, it's an IVR/robo poll, which are notoriously off-target in BC as witnessed by the 2013 BC election. Top-line numbers (with change from Mainstreet's September, 2016 poll in brackets):

BC Lib: 37% (+4%)
BC NDP: 37% (-1%)
BC Green: 17% (+1%)
BC Con: 10% (-4%)

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/deadlock-uncertainty-bc-election-nears/

Also an unusually high 31% undecided rate.

PS. I have been in contact with Greg Lyle, prez of Innovative Research, and he confirmed that they will release another CATI poll in the coming weeks. FWIW, in BC, CATI polling traditionally is the only methodology that produces accurate results.

[Lotuslander]

Gotta disagree. Basically speaking, the 2013 BC election was the first whereby both opt-in online panel and IVR/robo polls were utilized. Long-time BC pollster Mustel (CATI pollser) bowed out in January, 2013 - well over four months before the May, 2013 BC election. It's too bad as they nailed every BC election for the previous ~25 year period.

As for IVR polls in the 2013 BC election ... they also had major misses... yes Forum Research had a 2% BC NDP lead in their final poll leading into the weekend before e-day. Still... in BC terms, that's a 6% reversal compared to actual results. As a matter of fact, many, over the years, refer to Forum Research as the "McDonald's" of the CA polling industry.

Even worse, Ekos (also IVR/robo pollster) was last in the field two days before the 2013 BC election. Ekos' final result had a 6% BC NDP winning spread - a 10% reversal compared to the actual election result. Just terrible polling junk akin to the opt-in online panel pollsters.

Now back to Mainstreet Research, which released  it's IVR/robo BC poll today. It's their second ever poll in BC - their initial opinion poll was back on September 8, 2016 with the following result:

BC NDP: 38%
BC Liberal: 33%
BC Green: 16%
BC Con: 14%

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/bc-ndp-lead-liberals-38-to-33/

Interestingly enough, Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer, Global BC TV political reporter Keith Baldrey, and Province newspaper political columnist Mike Smyth all reported that BC Liberal insiders/strategists informed them that they were happy with that Mainstreet Research public opinion poll showing a 5% BC NDP lead. For example:

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One would think that's kinda odd. In that vein, Global BC TV political analyst Keith Baldrey also writes a weekly political column that some local Metro Vancouver newspapers publish. Just prior to the September, 2016 Mainstreet Research IVR poll showing a BC NDP 5% lead, Keith Baldrey wrote that the BC Liberals conduct internal CATI riding tracking polls on incumbent ridings as well as "winnable" ridings. Baldrey further reported that the BC Liberal's internal CATI riding polls have "most incumbents leading with healthy margins". Baldrey also stated that the BC Liberals don't conduct provincial tracking polls outside the writ period.

Again, this is the same BC Liberal internal pollster that, on the Friday (four days before May, 2013 e-day) had already called with certainty 48 ridings (actually won 49) for the BC Liberals and their final provincial tracking numbers were " bang-on" compared to the actual results. That's the power of expensive/accurate CATI polling. BTW, in an earlier post herein, I posted in detail those internal BC Liberal numbers from the 2013 BC election.

Again, Nanos federally is also a CATI pollster and their final numbers have also been virtually bang-on over the past 5 CA federal elections cycles. Hell, in the 2011 and 2015 CA fed elections, Nanos even almost nailed the exact BC federal voting intentions with their small, ~130 BC sub-sample. High quality stuff.

As for the BC Conservative vote, they are currently leaderless, have no candidates, are insolvent, and involved with in-fighting. Irrespective of the foregoing, the BC Liberal internal pollster had some interesting findings during the 2013 BC election campaign. At the beginning of the writ period, the BC Cons had 15% in their internals. His analysis:

1. 1/3 (5%) had brand confusion with federal politics ie. fed Con voters/BC Lib voters;
2. 1/3 (5%) were unhappy with the BC Libs and parked their votes with the BC Cons until near the end of the campaign when they held their nose and voted BC Liberal fearing a BC NDP win;
3. 1/3 (5%) were actual BC Con voters;

Now back again to the September 8, 2016 Mainstreet Research opinion poll (IVR/robo poll). Interestingly enough, Innovative Research a CATI pollster (reliable), was in the field just ~3 weeks before Mainstreet Research. During that interval, nothing material occurred on the BC provincial political scene. Yet... Mainstreet Research IVR polling results and Innovative Research's CATI polling results were COMPLETELY different. IR's CATI numbers:

BC Liberal: 38%
BC NDP: 29%
BC Green: 16%
BC Con: 15%
Other: 2%

http://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/160819_BCTM1608_Release_Deck_0.pdf

Have said it once and will say it again. Both opt-in online polling as well as IVR/robo polling is just cheap polling junk in BC. Period. Caveat emptor. CATI has always been and continues to be the gold standard of BC political polling as historical BC polling data corroborates.

My 2 cents.

PS.  These polls are just political snapshots in time. During the final 2 weeks of the writ period (just after televised leadership debate) is where major movement will occur in the campaign.

[Lotuslander]

Since the Mainstreet Research (IVR or robo) opinion poll from one week ago (in the field February 18 - 19) showing a tie between the BC Libs and BC NDP... Mainstreet Research has come out tonight with another IVR poll (in the field exactly one week later on February 25 - 26) with these decided results:

BC NDP: 39.5%
BC Lib: 33%
BC Green: 14.5%
BC Con: 13.2%

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/ndp-holds-slight-b-c-election-poll-lead-but-msp-child-care-issues-could-swing-voters

IOW, within the course of a week a political tie has gone to a 6.5% BC NDP lead. IMHO, opinion polls don't bounce around like that in the course of one week - esp. when nothing materially occurred on the BC political scene - except for an apparently highly lauded new BC budget, which intuitively should have benefited the BC Libs.

I have a hunch that we may well see another repeat of the BC 2013 election in terms of IVR/opt-in online panel polls this 2017 election cycle.

[Lotuslander]

Haha. DL. You are from Toronto. Correct? Like a ~5-hour flight away from Vancouver. Sometimes you make logical common-sense analytical comments. But your foregoing comment is, what even "red" federal Liberals in BC would describe as "bat sh**t crazy".

In other BC political news today, for the first time in BC history, a unionized affiliate of the BC Federation of Labour - Ironworkers Local 97 - endorsed the BC Liberals. Quite an eye-opener:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/ironworkers-endorse-b-c-liberals-attack-ndp-for-lack-of-jobs-plan

Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer's take:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-ironworkers-embrace-clarks-vision-for-their-future

Province newspaper political columnist Mike Smyth's take:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://theprovince.com/news/bc-politics/new-democrats-fume-as-ironworkers-union-endorses-clark

[Lotuslander]

Adma. You're just another hardcore Toronto NDPer with another one of your typical snide "drive-by" comments. Hundreds of other threads for ya to go to. Go troll/pollute those. Leave this one alone.

Haha. DL. You have proven my point again. The BC Fed is now controlled by public sector unions. And the public sector union leadership supports the BC NDP.

That's where the major schism exists within the BC Fed - public sector unions v. private sector unions. Same within the BC NDP. A new phenomena arising out of the 2013 BC election and post period. Hell, at the past BC Fed convention, when asked by the BC media if the BC Fed opposes BC Hydro's Site C dam, BC Fed prez Irene Latzinger (former public sector BCTF prez) stated that the BC Fed has no opinion as the BC Fed is "split".

I will re-iterate again that just one year ago, the entire BC Building Trades unions held convention in Victoria and invited BC Lib cabinet minister Shirley Bond as a guest speaker. Another historical first. Moreover, Bond received a standing ovation. Who woulda thunk? Gets even more bizarre. Bond was invited to be a guest speaker at the national convention.

Not long after that, a high-level internal USW memo was leaked to the BC media  regarding the same matters publicly espoused today by the Ironworkers local (part of the BC Building Trades unions). I have previously posted same herein.  Quite apparent that the USW membership in mining in BC votes heavily BC Lib. Just look at the Elk Valley in SE BC - the locale of the largest metallurgical coal mines in Canada.

In any event, have said it once and will say it again. The BC NDP has been hijacked by a hard-core enviro crowd on the BC SW coast - against everything - numerous mines, KM twinning, natural gas development, nat gas pipelines, LNG, resource development, major highway development, BC Hydro's Site C dam, etc., etc. - these are the projects where the unionized BC Building Trades have their work - their livelihoods. These union guys are literally "spooked".

Since you are from Toronto... let's imagine the ONDP opposes all 400-series expansion in the GTA... and opposes the proposed tolls on the DVP/Gardiner for transit expansion. And the ONDP opposes all resource development in northern Ontario, for example.  Would literally kill the ONDP - massive seat losses would result.

Grab your bag of popcorn and watch the BC election results roll in on May, 2017 e-day. Obviously then, and only then... will ya get my "drift".

PS. Since you are obviously a fan of IVR polls, which were also proven just cheap junk in the 2013 BC election, even then, you don't seriously believe that the BC Libs are polling higher on Van Isle than in Metro Vancouver based upon Mainstreet Research's numbers today? Or do you? Or are you even aware of the historical voting patterns/demographics of both BC regions?

[Lotuslander]

Lotuslander is a troll plain and simple.  There is no question he is well informed, but all that means is he is a well informed troll. Period.

The definition of "troll" is someone who posts irrelevant & inflammatory bafflegab in order to disrupt a thread. By that definition, you are a troll.

Sigh. Every once in a while it appears a "full moon" exists in this thread. At the strike of midnight... the trolls morph into werewolves,  get on their all-fours, and howl at the moon. Strange breed.

[Lotuslander]

Here are the details from that new Mainstreet poll

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-lead-post-budget-undecided-still-high/

One thing i find particularly interesting are the numbers on leader approval.

But check out Christy Clark...what absolutely damning numbers! Good thing Kathleen Wynne is around to save her from being the most hated premier in Canada!

Clark -

Favourable 21%
Unfavourable 57%
Not sure 20%
Don't know him well enough 2%

And right there exists a major "red flag" in terms of Mainstreet Research (IVR/robo polls) in BC esp. after the 2013 BC election polling fiasco. Both IVR/robo and opt-in online panel polls were proven to be terribly inaccurate cheap junk unlike expensive/accurate CATI - the polling gold standard. Seems like some folk are unable to proverbially separate the wheat from the chaff. More specifically, the same folk unable to tell the difference between a McDonald's hamburger patty and a NY steak.

So let's dig further into these approval numbers by Mainstreet Research. Let's backtrack to the 2013 BC election when the BC NDP approached/hit a winning spread of 20%. Even back then CC's approval (favourability) numbers with Angus Reid (opt-in online panel pollster) never hit as low as 21%.

In fact, in their final poll on the Monday prior to Tuesday, e-day, May, 2013, Angus Reid had a 9% BC NDP winning margin whereas the actual results was a 13% reversal. Even then, AR had CC with 34% approval/58% disapproval figures. Just last December 16, AR released CA premier's approval ratings and, surprise surprise, CC had the ~same 35% approval/59% disapproval ratings.

What's more interesting is the BC Lib 's internal polling during the 4-week 2013 writ period - very expensive/accurate CATI polling and the only entity that nailed the final 2013 BC election result. In terms of their BC Lib's internals approval ratings, CC had equal approval/disapproval numbers on the 2nd day of the 2013 campaign. Thereafter, CC's approval figures surpassed her disapproval numbers and trended upward over the next 4 weeks. OTOH, BC Lib 2013 internals had BC NDP leader Adrian Dix with disapproval numbers higher than his approval ratings with a negative trajectory throughout the 2013 campaign.

While the BC Lib's CATI internals nailed the 2013 BC election, the cheap opt-in online panel/IVR polls were wayyyyy off. Probably one of, if not thee, biggest public polling failures in Canadian history. Becoming clear that Mainstreet Research will be joining that same crowd.

Again, CATI pollster Innovative Research was in the field within a few weeks of IVR pollster Mainstreet Research last December. COMPLETELY different polling results. BTW, a few weeks back, Greg Lyle, prez of Innovative Research, directly informed me that they will be in the field relatively soon. Again, no doubt that they they again will have completely different results from Mainstreet Research.

To sum it up - some folk here apparently prefer McDonald's hamburger patties over NY steak in terms of quality "opinion" polling. No skin off my back. It is what it is.

[Lotuslander]

For all you IVR/robo poll fans... you will love today's new BC opinion poll results today by Forum Research:

BC NDP: 39.7%
BC Lib: 28.5%
BC Con: 15%
BC Green: 13.6%

(extrapolated)

[Lotuslander]

Why does this forum get so nasty and snide when talking about BC, of all places? This must be the only place where discussions about Israeli elections end up less controversial than discussing Vancouver politics.

Lotuslander.

Correction. The NDP has a certain sect within that treats the NDP as a "church". The so-called Jehovah's Witness/Scientology sect within the NDP that views any criticism as heresy & blasphemy.

Certainly Adma & DL - all from Toronto, Ontario fit that mold as well as Adam T. In centrist political circles these types are referred to as the "loony left". It is what it is.

[Lotuslander]

Actually, Lotuslander, I was tipped on your identity and it seems like, for all your self-proclaimed "expertise", you leave a pretty shallow Google footprint other than a Twitter account and, through said Twitter account, this.

https://bcelection2017-87ridings.blog/

And judging from the "About" page, there's something about your tone that still seems like it hasn't matured much beyond your Grade 5/7 epiphanies.  I mean, the Superbowl and Arnie as cultural references?

Haha. Adma - you've now proven yourself to be a complete and utter idiot. No doubt. And a psychopath to boot. An NDP buffoon on some conspiracy binge. Typical. In that regard, my favourite German (yes) saying: "Du hast ja aber eine Schraube locker".

Alright. Let's have some more fun since you "were tipped" by Adam T.

The poster "adma" has been posting for well over a decade on numerous political sites all over Canada - from Ontario's GTA. Have read "adma's" postings for years.... and yep... loony-left stuff. Quite the NDP "church" groupie. Despises the centrist federal Liberals. Forget about the right-wing fed Cons. An "NDP ueber alles" type.

Like former BC NDP strategist/campaign manager Brad Zubyk previously stated.... "the BC NDP believes it's akin to a church". "Half the folk are bat sh**t crazy".

Now adma. Point to one intelligent/analytical post that ya have composed in this thread. Ya can't! It's because it's all "NDP church" rhetoric all the time attempting to undermine my posts. Weird. Sheer bafflegab. From that perspective, your loony-left "I know all about BC politics" types [from Ontario]... are the same that are literally clueless about BC politics. Am familiar with that type.

So, will you kindly agree to put me on your "ignore list" as well? Hell... I would have blocked you loony-left NDP "church" types, if that option was available herein, long ago.

PS. Before ya do that... my next post is about the other NDP church groupie. Sorry DL... adma made me do it - well worth a read.

[Lotuslander]

But the 2015 federal Environics BC riding polls were akin to "dog meat" at a cheap Vietnamese restaurant v. McDonalds in comparison. Really pathetic junk. I actually know how Environics played that "game" - numerous IVR riding polls conducted until one favours the NDP (the 1/20 fluke outlier). Hell, the fed Greens played the same "game" with Oracle Research during  the federal riding of Victoria in 2015. Obvious that the fed NDP complained to Elections Canada as a result, which made news headlines after EC investigation.

Now the 2015 federal Environics riding polls ere the worst political junk that I have ever seen in my entire life in BC. /Environics had these federal BC ridings all listed as "NDP" wins - when either historically these ridings have never elected an NDP MP, were not demographically NDP, the underlying provincial ridings were not NDP - even another IVR/robo pollster concluded the riding was not NDP (in the field at the same time):

1. Cariboo-Prince George;
2 North Okanagan-Shuswap - hell ... even cheap polling junk IVR pollster Mainstreet Research (new BC poll), in  field at same time, had completely different result and more realistic;
3. Vancouver-Granville - ditto above;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015_by_constituency#British_Columbia

If someone made a complaint to Elections Canada regarding the foregoing, Environics would be required to produce ALL documents thereto - no client confidentiality.

post modified. doxing is inappropriate. consider this a formal warning. quit provoking people and derailing threads with this behaviour.

[Lotuslander]

Everyone in BC basically hates her.

Honestly... I have never met anyone who hates CC. And I am very serious. As a matter of fact, I know folk that dislike Gordon Campbell very much. These same folk "like" CC. Perhaps I live in a different world than you.

I certainly know that all hardcore NDP types "hate" both Campbell & CC. Just a fringe minority IMHO.

[Lotuslander]

Now back to regularly scheduled programming....

A fascinating BC NDP nomination race is underway in the riding of Fraser Nicola, which the BC NDP narrowly lost in 2013 after holding same since 1991 (aside from the 2001 debacle) with then incumbent NDP MLA Harry Lali.

Harry Lali is again running for the BC NDP nomination in the riding of Fraser-Nicola. During the 2013 BC election, Lali supported the Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning against the wishes of then BC NDP leader Adrian Dix. Today, Lali is against the KM twinning in order to keep "solidarity" with the BC NDP.

Interestingly enough, Lali's opponent is Lower Nicola FN chief Aaron Sam (good guy) in Merritt. Sam previously told a local newspaper that he supports the KM twinning as "it's important for the economy".  In fact, his FN finalized a financial benefits agreement with KM just last week.

Odd. The only BC riding that BC NDP leader Horgan has  voiced a preference - Sam - and apparently attempted to talk Lali from running.

Vancouver Sun's political columnist Vaughn Palmer has another interesting take tonight:

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-lali-wont-step-aside-for-leaders-choice-in-fraser-nicola

[Lotuslander]

Damn. the BC Libs are now toast in 2017. Who woulda thunk?

Wait a minute. Wait a minute. What's this from the Globe and Mail newspaper:

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On the weekend, Andrew Weaver and the BC Green Party issued a press release requesting both Elections BC as well as the RCMP investigate both the BC Libs and BC NDP:

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Hell, the BC Greens certainly know how to smell political red meat when they see it.

Oh Oh again. Elections BC head Archer this afternoon stated that he will be investigating both the BC Libs and BC NDP regarding lobbyist donations. Same lobbyists donated multiple times to both BC Libs and BC NDP according to Elections BC database. The $5,000/plate breakfast for BC NDP leader Horgan in wayyyy off Toronto, organized by an ON nuclear energy lobbyist, is also now under EBC scrutiny. Say it can't be?

No wonder both BC Lib leader Clark and BC NDP leader Horgan were "unavailable" for media interviews this afternoon. Meanwhile BC Green leader Weaver was having a field day swamping the BC media this afternoon.

Gotta hand it to Weaver and the BC Greens. Again, they can smell a political "red meat" issue when they see one.

[Lotuslander]

Today's Mainstreet Research IVR/robo poll. Their 3rd in 3 weeks and looks to be a weekly fixture until e-day. Again, in BC, IVR is cheap junk polling based upon 2013 election and other BC elections:

BC NDP: 29%
BC Liberal: 26%
BC Green: 10%
BC Con: 10%
Undecided: 25%

[Lotuslander]

Interestingly in regards to the Ironworkers Liberal endorsement, looks like there is a members movement against this, actual members, workers are not happy or supportive of the BCL endorsement. 3/25 we will see if there is a significant membership push to overturn this or making a competing endorsement for the NDP (or no one). But interesting infighting between Union executive and the membership. 

http://theprovince.com/news/bc-politics/mike-smyth-ironworkers-fight-their-own-union-over-liberal-endorsement

Most likely disgruntled old ideologues within the Ironworkers Union. Again, the 2013 BC election was a historical watershed election in that blue collar workers abandoned the BC NDP for the BC Libs - esp. in interior BC. Since then, we have already seen close links by the unionized BC Building Trades unions  and the BC Libs as well as internal dissension within USW ranks over their support of the BC NDP.

Within the last week or so the recently retired head of the ILWU penned this letter to the Province newspaper:

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And one can see similar undercurrents from the IAMAW:

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To paraphrase Bob Dylan's old classic "The Times They Are A-Changin'".

[Lotuslander]

Another Mainstreet Research opinion poll out today - IVR/robo poll. Am on record as stating this methodology is just cheap polling junk in BC... but am throwing it out there in any event.

Decided/Leaning:

BC NDP: 36%
BC Liberal: 34%
BC Green: 19%
BC Con: 11%

The regional result for Van Isle is certainly bizarre:

BC Green: 32%
BC Lib: 32%
BC NDP: 28%
BC Con: 7%

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/greens-tie-liberals-for-first-on-vancouver-island/

Also an interesting G&M article today on public BC opinion polling in both the BC 2013 election and public pollsters' thoughts for 2017... as well as political parties internal polling strategies:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-polling/article34548468/

[Lotuslander]

Interesting to note that one advert that has been running constantly for a few weeks now all over various 6 pm evening newscasts, radio etc. [sponsored by a group apparently/obviously aligned with the BC Libs]... is about the Leap Manifesto.

Said advert also includes footage of BC NDP leader John Horgan from a few months ago, back in January, 2017, stating that he "doesn't disagree with the bulk of the Leap Manifesto and that he will be putting forward his own 'Leap Manifesto' in [this] election":

https://vimeo.com/209227555

[Lotuslander]

15.Richmond South Center, Chak Au, Mental Health Therapist and Richmond Mental Health Team Program Leader, Richmond School Trustee 1999-2011, Richmond City Councillor 2011-

Au was recruited/appointed/acclaimed by BC NDP HQ in this riding. BTW in the foregoing riding, with transposed 2013 results, BC NDP received 23% under new riding boundaries in 2013.

However, that appointment will obviously turn out to be quite problematic for BC NDP provincially heading into the writ period next Tuesday. Why?

Chinese Fairchild TV/radio had an interview with Au a few days ago... Au is obviously a very *social conservative* candidate, against human rights, also backed by the local Richmond Con MP Alice Wong:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.reddit.com/r/britishcolumbia/comments/63loe5/fairchild_ndp_richmond_south_centre_candidate/

English Language media has not yet caught on to his very so-con views but causing a bit of a stir on social media tonight. Even BC Green Party leader Andrew Weaver has now espoused his concerns on social media, which also obviously will not make the BC NDP base happy.

Suspect that English media will catch on early next week at time of writ drop. Reminds me of a similar situation with BC NDP after writ drop in 2013:

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http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/04/16/dayleen-van-ryswyk-kelowna-ndp-racist_n_3093747.html

[Lotuslander]

How did a socon get on the NDP ticket? Instamembers, or did the NDP do a crappy job on their vetting?

Doubt many NDP members in the riding of Richmond South Centre considering that they received 23% here with 2013 transposed results. Suspect that Au was recruited by NDP HQ and then anointed/acclaimed.

A few days ago, Au was interviewed in Cantonese by Fairchild TV/Radio and stating his socon views and opposition to gay marriage, injection sites, gender-neutral washrooms, pot legalisation and early sex ed.

What's even more surprising is that Au told Fairchild TV that he was invited by the BC NDP to run and that the NDP assured him that he can vote his conscience on these sensitive issues.

Fairchild media interview here with translation:

https://www.facebook.com/am1470fm961/videos/1669655613059464/

This matter just got picked up early yesterday evening on social media and English-language media is not yet aware of same. Problem is that if/when they pick it up, likely this week, could cause a major distraction for BC NDP campaign after writ is dropped on Tuesday. Bizarre.

[Lotuslander]

I'm still seeing no reporting on the alleged story on Chak Au.  I'm more than a little suspicious that that post was deliberate 'fake news' by Lotuslander.  If that is the case, I hope the moderator here finally bans Lotuslander.

Sigh. You have repeatedly boasted that you have put me on your ignore list. All disingenuous. As usual.  You are nothing more than a loony conspiracy theorist. Now buzz off troll.

----------------------------------------------------

For others here.  Chinese-Canadian BC NDP candidate Au gave an interview last week in Cantonese to Fairchild media espousing his social conservative views. Au says one thing to English media and another thing to Chinese media. No wonder, as the Chinese community trends culturally social conservative.

Even today, I see both BC Lib and BC Green strategists allude to the matter on social media. If I was a strategist in one of these parties, I would alert the mainstream media a few weeks into the writ period.

In any event, one non-MSM outlet already seems to have picked up the story tonight... I am as straight as an arrow, but I believe that this is a gay publication (never heard of it before):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.dailyxtra.com/vancouver/news-and-ideas/news/richmond-ndp-candidate%E2%80%99s-statements-lgbt-rights-don%E2%80%99t-add-218657

[Lotuslander]

After weeks of Mainstreet Research's IVR/robo polls, Insights West today came out with one of their opt-in online panel polls. As an aside, the guy at Insights West is Mario Canseco, who was apparently fired after the 2013 BC election debacle at Angus Reid Strategies. Interesting to note that Mario has brought over the same poll format to Insights West.

In any event, Insights West decided numbers (with change from previous February 26 poll):

BC NDP: 40% (-1%)
BC Liberal: 38% (-2%)
BC Green: 17% (+6%)
BC Con: 3% (-2%)
Other: 2% (-1%)

http://www.insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/BCElection_Tables.pdf

Interestingly enough, IW's numbers have not changed much since their other previous poll in November, 2016 either.

Again, take these IVR/opt-in online panel polls with a grain of salt. This cheap polling junk fooled everyone back in the 2013 BC election. Many folk who follow this stuff have learnt their lesson.

For example, at the start of the 2013 BC election campaign, Angus Reid (opt-in online panel pollster) had the BC NDP with a 17% lead - their poll prior to e-day 2013 had a 9% BC NDP lead. Ekos, an IVR pollster, also had the BC NDP with a 17% lead initially and a 6% BC NDP lead in the final days of the 2013 campaign. Of course, the BC Libs won with a 4% margin.

BTW, I was advised a few weeks back by Kyle Braid, VP with Ipsos-Reid, that they will produce 3 polls during the 2017 BC election campaign - at beginning, mid-campaign, and at the end. Again, Ipsos is an opt-in online pollster, which also had an 8% BC NDP lead in their final poll before e-day 2013.

Like all of us political junkies... we love polls... even for fun... but don't put much, if any, credence on the foregoing pollsters/methodologies esp. in BC.

Now for the good polling stuff - CATI - the gold standard of polling. Innovative Research, a CATI pollster, produced a CATI poll last August, 2016. IR's prez, Greg Lyle, also knows BC and understands how to poll in BC, which can be a difficult jurisdiction to do so. Apparently, Innovative Research has CATI polling data now in the docket, which will be produced in next few days.

Even then, most of the BC populace is not paying attention to the forthcoming election. Only 2 weeks in, and during/after the TV leader's debate, does the campaign attract the full attention of the electorate.  With good CATI data then, will provide a true picture of the BC political landscape.

[Lotuslander]

Oh FFS. The same loony/ideological nutbar trolls posting yet contributing nothing to this thread. Run along.

Alrighty then, BC election writ will be dropped tomorrow. Then it's game on.

A look at 2 sites involving the BC election:

1. Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets (formerly UBC stock market):

http://predictionmarkets.ca/BC17.php

Actually I am invested in same ($1,000 max) and also was in 2013 market (made good coin!);

2. Election Prediction Project:

http://www.electionprediction.org/2017_bc/index.php

[Lotuslander]

Bryan Breguet‏'s "TooCloseToCall" website tonight predicts the possible BC election outcomes as of right now. Remember, these predictions are based upon the cheap junk IVR/opt-in online panel polls:

[Lotuslander]

Ipsos just released their first poll of the campaign using a mixed phone and online methodology

BC NDP - 44%
BC Liberals - 39%
Greens - 12%

http://linkis.com/www.cknw.com/2017/04/P28tV

As Ipsos VP Kyle Braid confirmed to me a few weeks back - their 1st/3 polls of the BC campaign alluded to in my previous post.

72% opt-in online/28% phone. Would be interesting to see break-down of 2 methodologies but, of course, they will not provide same.

Harken back to the first Ipsos poll of the 2013 BC campaign:

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http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6067

And of course, Ipsos' final poll on the last day of the 2013 BC campaign:

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http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6113

Fun for us political junkies. Just cheap polling junk in terms of reliability.