Is Wisconsin the bellweather for 2004?

[muon2]

Uh...



He's up in the polls in Wisconsin, Maine CD 2, and Iowa. Consider the bounds stretched.

I'm backing Philip on this one. This map is very plausible. Let's start with the current Atlas state poll aggregate. Phiip's maphere hasn't flipped any state that is colored for one candidate or the other.

Now consider a slight return to Kerry in the last month of the campaign. Of the toss-up states on the Atlas survey the following go to Kerry:

Kerry: NJ, OR, MN, ME-CD1(with ME statewide) - hard to see any problem here. This is consistent with many polls seen on the site.

Bush: NM, WV, ME-CD2 - I don't see anything wrong with these states going this way based on recent polling.

Kerry: NH, PA - With a slight swing in October this is not at all unreasonable since Northeastern states could see more of the swing than other parts of the country. Kerry's message is most in line with that part of the country.

Kerry: FL - This is the tough one to call. One factor that will make this exceedingly difficult is the hurricane effect. The level of disruption in that state is going to wreck havoc with voter turnout models. Getting voters to the polls can be difficult in good times. When there are more pressing things in life, voting becomes optional for many citizens.

Why is this so hard to imagine?

[muon2]

I'm backing Philip on this one. This map is very plausible.

Although Bush is polling stronger in OH than FL, OH will swing back to Kerry much faster than FL - Bush has a much stronger base of support in FL than in OH.

Kerry will win OH before he wins FL.

Florida is Bush Country in 2004.

In any ordinary year I would agree with you, and my personal prediction is still FL for Bush. However, I don't think it's implausible that FL flip to Kerry before OH.

Let me say more about the hurricane factor. FL has been hit by three hurricanes with a fourth on the way. Needless to say this is unprecedented and there is no past example to say how or if this will still impact voting in Nov. If the election were today, I'd bet that turnout in areas impacted by the hurricane are noticably lower.

Now consider where the hurricanes have struck, and where they haven't. Frances and Charley criss-crossed the center of the state. Bonnie, then Ivan struck the western panhandle. Jeanne is also headed for central FL. What's missing - Miami Dade.

If I had to guess, I'd think that south FL would vote in a normal pattern while central and western FL have a lower than normal turnout. Politically this would mean the Democratic stronghold of Miami votes about as expected, but strong Republican areas don't turn out. It wouldn't be for lack of support if Bush loses FL, just lack of votes cast.

[muon2]

Uh...



He's up in the polls in Wisconsin, Maine CD 2, and Iowa. Consider the bounds stretched.

Isn't this still a victory for Bush?

Yes, I believe that Philip was creating possible scenarios for a Bush with while losing two OH, FL, PA. The map quote here is the one of those three that seems most consistent with the current electorate. An interesting complication to this scenario would be if it happens as on the map, and CO votes in favor of its proportional representation referendum. That would give kerry a win, and then we surely would see a repeat of the 2000 legal wrangling.