Ontario 2018 election

[adma]

To be honest, millennials or no millennials, I'd put more credence in the polls showing the Tories at 40% or under, because they more accurately reflect the quirks of individual ridings as well as the contentiousness of Doug Ford himself.  And remember that especially since the Calgary mayoral election, Mainstreet has a chequered rep for a pattern of having a right-populist thumb on the scale.

One thing about Ipsos worth noting, though: Doug Ford having leadership approval of 37%, only a couple of points below the usually-frontleading Andrea Horwath.  Which indicates that even if he's polarizing, those who like him, like him a lot (not unlike Trump in that regard)

[adma]

If you want an idea of Mainstreet's problems...
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/mainstreet-polling-failure-calgary-election-naheed-nenshi-1.4442659

[adma]

That's not what I meant. I'm aware of Mainstreet's issues. I wanted to know why you think that polls showing the Tories at 40% or less "more accurately reflect the quirks of individual ridings". It's a bit of a different take.

Quirks include incumbency "bounce", relative strengths of candidates and parties in certain ridings, past patterns--the usual banal stuff.  And you seem to be skirting over my "as well as the contentiousness of Doug Ford himself" point...

[adma]

Honestly I'm surprised that Wynne is doing as well as she is. I would figured the NDP would have overtaken her like it did Mulroney's PC's in the early 90's.

Or the federal Iggy Liberals in 2011.  Of course, re the early 90s, that's seat totals, not overall vote tally--which means, it could still happen (much as it did in 1975 when the NDP became official opposition in the first Davis minority).

Remember that the ONDP still, to this day, suffers from the collateral third-leg-thrust-into-power "not ready for prime time" damage of a quarter century ago.  And if Wynne's doing as well as she is, it's also because Doug Ford isn't a readymade "neutral" vessel for votes a la Jean Chretien or various BC Liberal leaders...

[adma]

The example I was thinking of was before 1993... Mulroney actually spent much of his 2nd term behind the NDP in the polls. I think the NDP actually led for a little while. Otherwise I agree with what you said.

Actually, the initial critical "Ed-mania" was in Mulroney's first term c1987, but then the Tories and Libs ressserted their 1-2 in the 1988 election.  Then the Tories reassumed their free fall and there came about a certain Audrey McLaughlin honeymoon, believe it or not, which was augmented by the all-too-brief Ontario Rae-government honeymoon--this was around the time the Tories were at a 10-15% rock bottom in the polls, so in some ways it said more about how loathed Mulroney was than about how loved the NDP was...

[adma]

I think the Manitoba comparison is fair.  If you go out to the West Coast, lets remember the BC Liberals were headed for almost certain defeat in 2013, but won (I believe had the party still been led by Gordon Campbell or any of the other three candidates they would have lost) and likewise in 2017 after 16 years in power with all the baggage, the BC Liberals did win the popular vote and most seats.  True Christy Clark is not premier now due to the NDP/Green deal but coming within a 150 votes of a majority after 16 years in power is pretty impressive.  I also don't think Canada is any more sexist than the UK and Britain has had two female prime-ministers while both Australia and New Zealand have also had female PMs.  In the case of New Zealand, it is true Jacinda Ardern didn't win the popular vote, but the party was trailing by 20 points 2 months before the election under their previous leader and it was by switching to her they were able to get enough votes to make forming a coalition possible.  Not saying sexism doesn't exist, it does, but blaming Wynne's unpopularity on it is silly as most parties after 15 years in power with all the baggage have atrocious approval ratings.

Actually, going back in Manitoba history, don't forget Sharon Carstairs in 1988.

[adma]

Mainstreet will have Ontario on Monday and according to a tweet there is a significant change for one party, so will be interesting.  That being said a big drop for the PCs would only bring them in line with others (they had PCs at 50% last time around so even a 10 point drop would put them just below the average of other polls and five point drop still above most other polls).

That's what I suspect; the last PC result seemed overinflated.  Of course, they'll spin that "correction" as something more significant (or not) than it is...

[adma]

This is what, 3 in a row, that have the NDP in the 27-28% range?  As soon as the NDP solidifies its position as the alternative, which I expect is happening now, I expect (like what happened with the federal Layton orange wave), they will only go up. 

Would be interesting to see what the result would be if the wheels fell off for the Liberals and the NDP were a solid 2nd place They only pulled 25% or so federally in 2011, tying the Liberals. I wonder what the map would look like if the results were something like

If that happened it would still be PCs 82 seats so solid majority, but NDP at 38 seats, while Liberals to only 4 seats (thus lose official party status).  Below is the map I created.  Interestingly enough both Ford and Wynne lose their own seats (Ford's goes NDP, while Wynne's goes PC).  Only Liberal seats would be Toronto Centre, Toronto-St. Paul's, Ottawa Centre, and Ottawa-Vanier.

I was wondering about this.  If Liberal support collapsed, would it go largely to the NDP in some historic Liberal ridings, and if so, could the NDP win those ridings.

Obviously at the top of my list were Toronto Centre, Toronto-St Paul's, Ottawa Centre (the NDP has won this riding at times federally and provincially) and Ottawa-Vanier.  Also, maybe based on 2014 results and ridings, Etobicoke-Centre, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Scarborough-Guildwood and York Center. And finally, Kingston and the Islands (I know the NDP won there in 1990.)

I think Toronto-St. Paul's would go PC before NDP, it is sort of akin in BC to Vancouver-Quadra federally or provincial ridings like Vancouver-False Creek otherwise your wealthy progressives and I've generally found people making 6 figure salaries have no problem voting Liberal but voting NDP is a bridge too far.  If you compare the US vs. UK you see this too as very wealthy areas have no problem going Democrat, but you don't see them voting Labour in the UK and Democrats are more like the Liberals philosophically while Labour more like the NDP.

Toronto Centre and Ottawa Centre agree could go NDP if Liberals implode.  York Centre would probably go PC first and at the moment PCs favoured.  Etobicoke Centre and Etobicoke-Lakeshore would also probably go PC with current polling numbers but if Ford does something stupid and the PCs fall into the 30s while the Liberals implode then they become possible NDP pick ups.  Scarborough-Guildwood, the NDP did well federally in 2011 so possible, but also this area voted over 50% for Doug Ford as mayor so it is part of the so called Ford Nation.

The problem with a lot of these suppositions is that they're based too naively upon extrapolation from past polls and polling numbers, including notional figures for "new" ridings.

The fact is: Toronto Centre as presently drawn is more or less on par with Spadina-Fort York and University-Rosedale, it's just the fact that it came from a *completely* safe-Liberal riding that makes it look otherwise.  The Etobicoke seats are skewed Toryward by Doug Ford's proximity, and Etobicoke Centre especially is at the bottommost tier of NDP pickup potential.  And Guildwood only *looks* as safe as it does because John MacKay hung on federally in 2011 and that became the meal ticket for a 2015 incumbent landslide--otherwise it, too, is more or less on par with its neighbours...

[adma]

This is the buzz of the day: Doug Ford promising to pave over the Greenbelt, more or less
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6R68vvTuO7w&feature=youtu.be

[adma]

Describe a Bob Rae/NDP 1995 (not 1990)-Doug Ford/P.C 2018 voter.

Giorgio Mammoliti.

[adma]

I presumed it was a "1990 doesn't count" question, rather than one of those rare few who might have switched *to* the NDP in 1995...

[adma]

I definitely know of a lot of Robarts/Davis-era Tories who migrated to the Liberals or beyond once their party (or federally speaking, its successor) swung rightward...

[adma]

And in places like Markham, you'll find that the WASPY old neighbourhoods that were once dependably Tory have swung leftward, while the Asian ethnoburbia which surrounds them has gone rightward...

[adma]

Wouldn't mind monitoring what positive/negative Tory momentum such figures show--though I've always felt that 40% was likelier than 45%...

[adma]

While you can never say never, I cannot see the Liberals falling below high teens which you consider how resilient their base is in Toronto and Ottawa.  As for NDP, I would not be the least bit surprised if they get over 30%.  Cracking the 40% mark will be challenging and I doubt that will happen but if the PCs mess up, I think an NDP win would be something along these lines: 38% NDP, 36% PC, 21% Liberal.  Certainly won't be a Bob Rae type landslide as the PCs are much stronger than they were in 1990 or even a Notley type win as you had a perfect split on the right, but a win similar to Glen Clark in 1996 or Roy Romanow in 1999 in terms of size seems plausible albeit still unlikely at this point.

Or maybe even more comparable, Schreyer in 1969.

[adma]

Anecdotally speaking, I think Ford was the big loser (getting caught in Prentice-esque mansplainy traps, et al) and Horwath the winner; it remains to be seen whether, given his kind of following, such "losing" bears itself out in polls (or even if Ford "won by losing", so to speak).

A most interesting thing *outside* the debate, though: amidst the scrums of sign-waving supporters were those of Tanya Granic Allen.  They evidently aren't laying down so easily...

[adma]

According to Mainstreet, Ford won the debate (35.1%, vs Horwath's 24.3% and Wynne's 19.3%).
https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ford-wins-the-debate-according-to-torontonians/
But what's *really* interesting, though given no play at all, is that they threw a voting-intention question into it, and the PCs are at 36.6% to the Libs' 31.1% and the NDP's 23.1%. Remember: the last Mainstreet poll went 44.9-28.2-21.3; and before that 50-24-18. Maybe a different *kind* of sample, but...

[adma]

According to Mainstreet, Ford won the debate (35.1%, vs Horwath's 24.3% and Wynne's 19.3%).
https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ford-wins-the-debate-according-to-torontonians/
But what's *really* interesting, though given no play at all, is that they threw a voting-intention question into it, and the PCs are at 36.6% to the Libs' 31.1% and the NDP's 23.1%. Remember: the last Mainstreet poll went 44.9-28.2-21.3; and before that 50-24-18. Maybe a different *kind* of sample, but...

The previous poll was the whole province, this is just the 416 so actually the PCs were slightly lower in the last poll in the 416.  If the PCs are north of 40% in Etobicoke, Scarborough, and North York, they would be well on their way to a majority with those numbers.  Off course the election is still 30 days away so a lot can happen between now and then.

Yeah misread/misinterpreted the 2000-*Ontario*-residents thing.  So in the end, it's just Mainstreet being Mainstreet again, thumb on the right-populist scale and all...

[adma]

You just beat me to it!

http://torontosun.com/news/provincial/poll-favours-ontario-ndp-as-opposition-to-a-pc-majority-goverment

Funny thing is the talk of the PC's cautious frontrunner's campaign don't reflect the reality of candidate controversy, fake-supporter controversy, inconvenient-sound-bite controversy, etc...

[adma]

  If you are a Liberal this is a disaster and I don't know how they can recover. 

Though actually, they went *up* a point from the previous Forum poll.  It just looks worse because there's more space btw/them and the NDP now.

When it comes to "recovery": well, maybe not enough to win, but perhaps enough to salvage some dignity, and maybe as a token beneficiary of Doug Ford's gaffes after all...

[adma]

This was April 29 - May 6th so right around when the NDP started to rise.  

And also that pre-writ, pre-debate period when the PCs still projected something tight and in control, despite the Greenbelt controversy, despite the candidate appointments, despite Tanya Granic Allen's dismissal at the end of that timeframe.

My feeling is that in future polling, post-May 6 is going to make all the difference.

[adma]

So, based on these latest polls, what ridings held by the Liberals would the NDP likely pick up and are there any P.C held ridings that the NDP might win? (for instance, maybe Sarnia-Lambton)

From the Liberals I would guess
1.Ottawa Centre
2.Kingston and the Islands
3.Scarborough-Rouge Park
4.Scarborough South West
5.Beaches-East York
6.Davenport
7.Spadina-Fort York
8.University-Rosedale (new riding)
9.Humber River-Black Creek (formerly York West)
10.York South-Weston
11.London North Centre
12.Sudbury

If we're going by the NDP flirting with 1st over the PCs in SW Ontario, Brantford-Brant (where the Lib incumbent's retiring), Kitchener Centre (though redistribution skews the NDP picture by bringing in strong Fife polls from K-W), maybe even Cambridge, maybe even Jim Bradley's St Catharines.  Mike Schreiner gets in the way in Guelph, though.  Also, if things swing *really* violently against the Libs in Northern Ontario, both Thunder Bay seats.  And Horwathmania could well flip Durham into the fold, rather than the "expected" PC pickup.

From the PCs: Chatham-Kent-Leamington, Sault Ste Marie.

I *might* downplay Scarborough-Rouge Park--the breakup of the NDP heart of Malvern/Morningside Heights seems to have been fatal.  And I'd bump Toronto Centre up a few notches.  

Plus, all those Brampton seats, if we're picking up where Jagmeet-mania in 2014 left off.

And of course, if it weren't for who was running there, there'd be Etobicoke North to consider.

[adma]

I would add Hamilton West-Dundas-Ancaster as a possibility for the NDP if things go well.  It's in Andrea Horwath's backyard and is kind of like the "London West" of Hamilton (the affluent/educated seat where Fordian populism doesn't go over well).  

A little like Waterloo as well, in that it contains a university--McMaster.

(I forgot about HWDA; perhaps in part because it technically did not exist in 2014--or rather, the former Ancaster et al has *two* successor seats.  And heck; a nearing-majority-territory NDP is probably capable of picking up or at least posing a threat in Flamborough-Glanbrook as well.)

[adma]

The NDP is competitive in the SW, but down from 2014, so are at a risk of losing London West (though the PC candidate is a crazy, so that might help them).

Though I wonder if "down from 2014" reflects a possible "correction" from overinflated 2014 figures + token PC bounce in seats like Essex and Windsor-Tecumseh (or the PCs gaining ground over the no-longer-incumbent Libs in Windsor West)

[adma]

What could happen is that the Liberals help Horwath form a minority government, but since a Horwath is popular, what’s not to like about that.

It associates clean, popular Horwath with toxic Wynne and motivates the Tory base. Of course I'd be surprised if Wynne is leader a week after election day, but the insinuations will still be made.

Though...how "toxic", really, esp. if Horwath has the upper hand?  This is more about "not Ford" rather than "yes Wynne", after all.  Choose your toxins, IOW (and that includes the Rae-revisited/socialist hordes spectre at Horwath's end)

Note, too, that they're cautiously non-committal--but really: giving how polarizing Ford is, why must the alternatives not be considered in a minority situation?  Like, who'd (or how'd one) accord with Ford?  And if by some fluke Horwath's in the pole position but short of a majority, what's one to do?