Ontario 2018 election

[adma]

Another possible name is Gurpreet Dhillon; currently a Brampton city Councillor and ran for the ONDP in Brampton-Springdale in 2014, pretty high profile candidate if he chose to run in the new Brampton East. I think there is only some small overlap with redistribution.

However, the overlap is where Dhillon was strongest--basically, the westward extension of Jagmeet Country.  (They don't call Springdale "Singhdale" for nothing.)

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I don't often consider candidates who receive less than 20% of the vote to be a "factor".  Admittedly, what each one of us considers to be "a factor" is a subjective thing.  My point is that Schreiner's positions lately have fallen more in line with the PC than they would with the ONDP and/or Liberal party.  And he holds different positions than the federal party, and very different than the BC Greens.  Schreiner is campaigning on lowering personal income taxes, wanting to privatize the soon-to-be-created CCBO, and has gotten into some trouble with Francophone communities in Ontario, as he advocates eliminating the French language school boards (he wants just 1, down from 4 current systems).  Hardly the picture of a "leftist" party, leader, or candidate.

Ah, but consider that once upon a time, Guelph was deemed to be a Red Tory stronghold--and also that in 2015, the federal Green candidate, Gord Miller, had been a two-time PC candidate in Northern Ontario in the 1990s and a "partisan" Mike Harris appointment as provincial Environmental Commissioner.

*That*, in all likelihood, is the sensibility Schreiner's aiming to tap.

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That assumes most voters are aware of it. I think many just assume the Greens are a left wing environmentalist party even if untrue in Ontario. If he is not in the debate he will get very little scrutiny meaning he might get many votes who don't agree with his views.

Though if one parses past Guelph results, there's definitely a distinction btw/ where the Greens do better and where the NDP does better--in the former case, a lot of gentrified downtown and university-zone neighbourhoods; and in the latter case, the apartment/townhouse-defined eastern and western suburbs.  (Its right-wing echo would be where the Tories did better and where Reform did better in the 90s)

[adma]

Exactly.  People said they same about Sam Osterhoff and his choice for Niagara West-Glanbrook, but at the end of the day didn't make a difference.  Candidates can make a minor difference but party label plays a much bigger role, particularly in urban ridings.  I find in rural ridings candidate tends to matter a bit more which is why for example Vic Fedelli has no trouble winning in Nipissing despite being a fairly solid Liberal riding federally or why Jim Bradley held on during the Mike Harris era in St. Catherines which is usually a bellwether.

Though Fedeli underperformed in 2014 (even if a split opposition gave the illusion otherwise), and  Bradley came close to losing in 2011.

Also, I still wouldn't knock ONDP dreams for Ottawa Centre "a delusion"--at least as long as federal memories of Paul Dewar remain fresh.  However, in light of polling numbers and recent OC provincial history, I also wouldn't rule out the PCs leapfrogging ahead of the NDP...

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Keep in mind that had Harris not been the populist-vote-sponging incumbent (and provincial party leader) in 1990, Nipissing could well have gone NDP that year.

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In Kenora-RR's case, it's because the north is largely FN.

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Now that Jagmeet's gone from Queen's Park (but not forgotten), it'll be *really* interesting to see what happens in Brampton in his absence--particularly given how his coattails lead to surprising second and near-second places in the other Brampton seats in 2014.  And consider that we're no longer dealing with 3 Brampton seats, but 5--and 6, if you include Malton.

OTOH the NDP 905 dilemma remains the same as always--on a municipal rather than prov-fed level, they have an infrastructure that's rudimentary at best...

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Apparently the riding that contains most of Jagmeet Singh's old riding of Bramalea-Gore-Malton is Mississauga-Malton, and the NDP have nominated  television personality and Ontario Black History Society President Nikki Clarke to run there.

Actually, that's not the case--the named components of BGW were roughly equal, and if anything, it was the Gore part--Singh's landslide stronghold--that had the most population/electorate momentum going for it.  Malton was only the southern rump, and one that tends to be a Lib-NDP dead heat if anything.  (Bramalea'd be the heart of Tory strength, were they not so third-place marginalized in 2014.)

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For the ONDP, the Jagmeet Singh "spillover effect", or whether there is such a thing, is a *real* puzzle.  And if they wind up backsliding in Brampton relative to 2014 despite "their guy" in power federally, there's going to be plenty of soul-searching...

[adma]

Muskoka, Parry Sound, Haliburton and Algonquin Park are the transition zone.

Broadly and traditionally speaking, "Northern Ontario" is/was anything which, pre-regionalization,  qualified as a "district" as opposed to a "county".  Thus, Parry Sound and Muskoka.  But not Renfrew, Haliburton, etc etc.

[adma]

Muskoka is a district in name only, though. It has its own regional government, which the other districts do not have. It's only 'northern' if you're from Toronto, but they think Barrie is in Northern Ontario.

But *traditionally*, Muskoka's been a district (i.e. before it "regionalized" in 1971; and note that it uniquely labelled itself as "District Municipality" rather than "Regional Municipality", a bow to its former political form).  Also, there's a distinct geographical difference from Barrie/Orillia--the Precambrian Shield effectively begins at the Severn River southern border--that bonds it much more with Parry Sound than with Simcoe County; and of course, there's always been a "Parry Sound-Muskoka" riding, which whatever the form of municipal government, automatically assigns it to the "districted" North, even now, nearly half a century since Muskoka was last a district.

The only Torontonians who'd have the fuzzy-wuzzy starting-at-Barrie perception of "Northern Ontario" you describe are the kinds of idiots and dolts who'd have no clue about *any* Ontario political geography beyond the inner GTA.  Which in an era when Google and GPS have largely superceded the official Ontario road map in common usage, is probably a dime-a-dozen circumstance.

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Nobody wants to be Premier? Nobody wants to stop Doug Ford from being Premier?

It's almost like DoFo's on the verge of becoming the Jeremy Corbyn of the Ontario PCs.

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Nobody wants to be Premier? Nobody wants to stop Doug Ford from being Premier?

It's almost like DoFo's on the verge of becoming the Jeremy Corbyn of the Ontario PCs.

And if he campaigns as well as Corbyn that means he will be premier.  Lets remember Corbyn began the campaign 20 points behind while on election night finished only 2 points behind. 

I *did* have that pundit-defiance in mind when posting that.

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Wasn't Doug Ford a cocaine dealer back in the 80's?

He was a hash dealer.  While never proven in the court of law, it is well known and I actually know people who went to the same high school as him around the same time and he was well known and his brother Randy as to whom to buy drugs from.  I could easily see him being rejected in the riding nomination by the party brass as being too big a risk.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/globe-investigation-the-ford-familys-history-with-drug-dealing/article12153014/

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If he loses the leadership race *and* is somehow barred from running, I can see Doug Ford endorsing the NDP just to "stick it" to both the Liberals and the "ungrateful" PCs.  (Indeed, were it not for Ford, I can see the NDP grabbing Etobicoke North on anti-Liberal/Jagmeet-Singh-orbit grounds.  Especially if murmurs of a 1990-style pox-on-both-houses wave becomes reality.)

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Timmins is a stupid city but it's not voting PC, especially against Bisson.

Depends on the candidate, especially now that the FN polls have been hived away.  Remember that Timmins proper can be a bit wobbly in its NDP support.  And I know that the more common anti-NDP pattern hereabouts is Liberal; but in this election, who knows...

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I'd also put Willowdale behind (the North York Centre condo corridor increasingly "moderates" it ahead) and Scarborough's seats ahead in the overall pecking order.

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The problem I have with with their current prediction is that it seems way too small-c conservative and incumbent friendly. The Liberals are are given 24 safe seats and are considered a factor in many more toss ups at the expense of the Tories and NDP. E.g. Newmarket-Aurora was won by the Liberals by about 6% in 2014. There's been a double digit swing from Liberal to Tory since then and the Tories are running Christine Elliott, but it's called a toss up.

Well, re such caution, EPP's never been based upon *mathematical* projection based upon current/running polls--it's always been more a combo of moderator's gut + contributors "having their say".  (Which, given how more supposedly "scientific" prediction/projection sites have faltered over the years, might be just as well.)

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The problem I have with with their current prediction is that it seems way too small-c conservative and incumbent friendly. The Liberals are are given 24 safe seats and are considered a factor in many more toss ups at the expense of the Tories and NDP. E.g. Newmarket-Aurora was won by the Liberals by about 6% in 2014. There's been a double digit swing from Liberal to Tory since then and the Tories are running Christine Elliott, but it's called a toss up.

Well, re such caution, EPP's never been based upon *mathematical* projection based upon current/running polls--it's always been more a combo of moderator's gut + contributors "having their say". (Which, given how more supposedly "scientific" prediction/projection sites have faltered over the years, might be just as well.)

That's a fair point, though it's belied by the sheer inaccuracy of the aggregate predictions EPP generates: a BC Liberal majority in 2017; solid UK Tory majority in 2017; federal Liberal minority in 2015; Ontario Liberal minority in 2014; BC NDP majority in 2013; Canadian Tory minority in 2011. At least some of the scientific models called each of those races accurately.

As commendable as it may be to take such a granular approach, if the sum total fails to accurately predict the most meaningful consequences of an election, it's not really worth much. Especially when they boast about being "90.8%" or "90.9%" "accurate."

Which is why, in the end, EPP is an artifact of a pre-Nathan Silver era, when it really was more about social media than strict science--it's like, whatever the accuracy of the predictions, it's "fun to read" (and even enlightening, if sometimes in spite of itself); and that's what matters in the end.  (By comparison, the social media relative to more "scientific" sites tends to be erratically turgid letters-to-the-editor/comments-page stuff.  Which is why Nathan Silver and Éric Grenier tend to be the deliberate stars of their respective shows far more than Milton Chan is.)

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There could be an opportunity here for the NDP.  This could be the first genuine three way election in Canada since ?

Quebec 2007 and 2012.  (2012 had lower winning share; but also lower "third party" seat numbers.)

Also Nova Scotia's 1998 19-19-14 seat split.

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Ontariowise, the closest we've come in recent times is the 1975 Davis Tory minority election.  (Though the 1990 NDP majority election had by far the most *individual* three-ways per riding--not unlike how Alberta '15 played out outside of Edmonton)

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I don't think the Forum poll provided seat projections,

57 PC, 36 Lib, 31 NDP.

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If no clear alternative for Ford presents itself, I do expect an NDP + LIB coalition in the event there is a Ford-led minority government.  I don't think the Forum poll provided seat projections, but with those numbers, the NDP and Libs would likely have about the same number of ridings.

I could sort of see the Liberals supporting the NDP, but I couldn't see the NDP supporting the Liberals to allow Kathleen Wynne to remain in power.

The Liberals clearly need a 'time out' from governing. This is why the result I'm hoping for is an NDP minority government.  This would keep a check on the NDP, and allow both the Liberals and the P.Cs to replace their hopeless leaders and allow them to try to renew themselves.

But even if that's an ideal-case scenario, what if (as one would casually think is more likely) it's the Liberals in the pole minority-coalition position?  Wouldn't that call for Wynne to remain in power by forced necessity, whether you feel she or her party require a "time out" or not?  Or do you seriously think the NDP (or the Wynne Liberals, for that matter) would rather prop up the Ford Tories?  The *Ford* Tories, remember.

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If there's a Tory minority, it's far more likely the Liberals (and maybe NDP) pick a new leader and Ontario goes to the polls in 18 months like the bulk of minority governments in the past century.

Or sooner than 18 months, given the Tory leadership.

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Ho hum, too much tax talk, not enough election talk.