UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Watching UK elections is like watching a competition show. This country basically invented the modern way we do politics in the West, so every one of their elections is historic. (even if they're embarrassing themselves with brexit and boris nowadays)

Given the current state of politics, this does not reflect well on the UK.

Lol, facts don't care about our feelings!

[Oryxslayer]

Here are Three Rules that everyone should observe tonight:

1) Trust the Exit Poll. The modern exit poll has always been in the neighborhood of the final results, thanks to structural changes adopted after ’92. This especially matters if the exit poll diverges from public polling in a significant way. The topline results will likely not be the final result; however, it will be close. But….

         1a) Know what to ignore in the exit poll. It is just a poll. Now, the topline is usually near enough to accurate for us to believe it. The exit poll even gets the usually hard-to-project Lib-Dems right. What lies below the topline though is far more uncertain. Looking back, there are plenty of times the exit poll projected certain seats to flip, but they didn’t and others did. We though will not know what is right or wrong until the sun comes up. Seats are increasingly more likely to be missed if it involves a new party standing, a minor party who has fewer respondent votes to project from, a multi-party 3+ marginal, or a massive swing that breaks traditional swing-o-meters. For all these reasons, Scotland has been recently hard to get right even in the exit poll, but errors are not limited to the 59 seats north of Carlisle.

2) Anecdotal Turnout Reports are Anecdotes. Unless the numbers are being reported by someone who can physically see the vote bin, or see the votes piling up in the count, there is no reason we should give them our trust. Even if the numbers are right, they could suggest any number of things. Every party desires high turnout among their voters after all, and less turnout among the oppositions demographics. Turnout estimates are rough and unreliable by nature.

3) Regions will vote and swing differently. Figures coming from one part of the country should not be used to infer a general trend across the nation. Regions and collections of seats are different demographically, voted differently on Brexit, and have historically different party attachments. Last time in 2017, a third of the nation (The Brexit heavy Northeast) swung to the Tories, a third of the nation swung hard to Labour (London, her Remainy commuter regions, and other urban centers), and the remaining third sung to labour by less than the nation. It is our unfortunate luck that all of the early declaring seats are in the Northeast region, an area that has done their own thing politically for the past five years. This rule also applies to any rumors from before voting has concluded.

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully turnout will be ~80%.

Looks like UK voters want to settle this once and for all.

[Baki]

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/group_b.6b9db4dc-d1df-4c9d-b9ab-c9a136a91f1e/uk-general-election-seats-markets

Currently has it at

CON     338
LAB      224
LDEM     20
SNP       42
PC           4

CON seat share seems to be dropping since poll-closing...

How did it look like in 2017

2017 - Sporting index 50 minutes before polls closed ...

CON    360.5
LAB     207.5

...and 4 minutes before poll-closing:

CON    361.5
LAB     206.5

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hopefully turnout will be ~80%.

Looks like UK voters want to settle this once and for all.

Problem is that one half of the electorate wants it settled in an entirely different manner than the other half, so the end result could be a stalemate again.

[Walmart_shopper]

The betting markets on this have been fascinating to watch, from a sociological and obviously political standpoint--perhaps most of all because they have performed basically as you would expect. They opened the day with a Tory majority around 70%, dropped several points as turnout spikes were reported, and then it rose to the mid-70s after the midday Ipsos poll dropped showing the Tories up big. As Jezzmentum continues apace the Tory majority is all the way down to just over 60%. The numbers point to a Tory majority. But Jezza is a masterful and inspiring campaigner (which is why 2017 was hardly a fluke). The data says BoJo gets his majority. The gut says Corbyn magic keeps him under the 320 he needs.

[Ebsy]

Why is Ipsos releasing a poll today? Isn't that illegal? And it actually showed the Tory lead declining, so not sure why I would take that as good news for them lol. Just another herding pollster.

[cp]

Why is Ipsos releasing a poll today? Isn't that illegal? And it actually showed the Tory lead declining, so not sure why I would take that as good news for them lol. Just another herding pollster.

You can release a poll if it was conducted before election day itself. It also showed a pretty substantial Tory lead, so a cursory reading would point to good news for the Tories.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Well i'll watch it today. Here's hoping for a good result for Labour (hung parliament, Labour exceeding expectations).

[thumb21]

Boris Johnson didn't vote for himself...because he voted in at his Downing Street address.

When I first read that headline, I was hoping it meant he voted for Lord Buckethead or Count Binface.

[The Free North]

Boris Johnson didn't vote for himself...because he voted in at his Downing Street address.

When I first read that headline, I was hoping it meant he voted for Lord Buckethead or Count Binface.

Do MPs have to live in the constituency they run in? Or is there an exemption made for the PM...

[DistingFlyer]

Boris Johnson didn't vote for himself...because he voted in at his Downing Street address.

When I first read that headline, I was hoping it meant he voted for Lord Buckethead or Count Binface.

Do MPs have to live in the constituency they run in? Or is there an exemption made for the PM...

They don't have to, though obviously it helps. Sometimes boundary changes mean that they no longer live in the constituency (which happened to Gordon Brown after 2005, I think).

[Oryxslayer]

Boris Johnson didn't vote for himself...because he voted in at his Downing Street address.

When I first read that headline, I was hoping it meant he voted for Lord Buckethead or Count Binface.

Do MPs have to live in the constituency they run in? Or is there an exemption made for the PM...

The UK has a proud tradition of airlifting candidates into safe seats purely because they are safe seats, and the candidate climbed enough within the party.

[Tintrlvr]

Boris Johnson didn't vote for himself...because he voted in at his Downing Street address.

When I first read that headline, I was hoping it meant he voted for Lord Buckethead or Count Binface.

Do MPs have to live in the constituency they run in? Or is there an exemption made for the PM...

The UK has a proud tradition of airlifting candidates into safe seats purely because they are safe seats, and the candidate climbed enough within the party.

Yeah, a lot of MPs, especially in safe seats, don't have any connection to their constituencies whatsoever (not like people who were just redistricted out of their original seat).

[Queen Isuelt]

Hearing and reading that the weather is dreadful - hard cold wins plus constant rain - in the midlands.

High Peak, Bolsover, Rother Valley, Peninstone. Some polling stations are in remote areas. Polling stations open till 10pm. Most people voting in darkness 1st thing or last thing

Shetland islands sun rises at 08.59 sunsets 14.56.
Glasgow sun rises 08.37 sunsets 15.43
Derby 08.09-15.49
London 07.56-15.51
Penzance 08.11-16.19

Compare that to 2017 election in middle of June long days long nights. Smart move by Tories to call winter election as Corbyn is an effective campaigner.
Tori we have sent targeted Facebook ads to 90 constituencies saying to the viewer that they are 1/9 constituencies that can get Brexit done.

[Oryxslayer]

The data says BoJo gets his majority. The gut says Corbyn magic keeps him under the 320 he needs.

This is pretty much how I’ve felt about this election from the very beginning.

Anyway, does anyone have a good livestream + results pages/maps?

Sky will hav a YT link later. I suspect BBC with have a stream on Twitter like last year as well.

[JerryArkansas]

The data says BoJo gets his majority. The gut says Corbyn magic keeps him under the 320 he needs.

This is pretty much how I’ve felt about this election from the very beginning.

Anyway, does anyone have a good livestream + results pages/maps?

Sky will hav a YT link later. I suspect BBC with have a stream on Twitter like last year as well.

CSPAN will have a live video of BBC.

[DaWN]

I voted about 9.30 this morning. Polling station was pretty barren but I wouldn't read anything in a mainly empty polling station at 9.30 in the morning in a safe seat.

I couldn't predict the result if I'm honest - we could heading for a substantial Tory majority like the polls say or we could be heading for another 2017. I don't think I'll even bother guessing which of the two it is.

Hopefully the Lib Dems do better than expected. That's all I say for now.

[cp]

I voted first thing this morning in Esher & Walton. My impression over the next two hours was that in the deep blue Tory party of E&W that I live in there were a genuinely surprising number of Con>LD switchers. Even the Tory teller at the polling station could only muster a halfhearted sense of determination.

[DaWN]

I voted first thing this morning in Esher & Walton. My impression over the next two hours was that in the deep blue Tory party of E&W that I live in there were a genuinely surprising number of Con>LD switchers. Even the Tory teller at the polling station could only muster a halfhearted sense of determination.

The million quid question... do you think they've done it?

[cp]

I voted first thing this morning in Esher & Walton. My impression over the next two hours was that in the deep blue Tory party of E&W that I live in there were a genuinely surprising number of Con>LD switchers. Even the Tory teller at the polling station could only muster a halfhearted sense of determination.

The million quid question... do you think they've done it?

I predicted as much in the other thread. I stand by it. Hard to disentangle my own emotions from it, though.

[Donerail]

Boris Johnson didn't vote for himself...because he voted in at his Downing Street address.

And at this rate, that might matter!

https://twitter.com/ljayes/status/1205205524352045056

The dream is alive, boys

[Mike88]

Boris Johnson didn't vote for himself...because he voted in at his Downing Street address.

And at this rate, that might matter!

https://twitter.com/ljayes/status/1205205524352045056

The dream is alive, boys

I doubt he will lose there, he's the PM after all. But, a result like a 4 to 6% victory over Labour would be very weak and would look bad. I think every incumbent PM in the last century has always got margins well above 20% in their respective constituencies.

[Cassius]

It’s looking very much like Russian Standard time whichever way the vote goes.

[the506]

Watching UK elections is like watching a competition show. This country basically invented the modern way we do politics in the West, so every one of their elections is historic. (even if they're embarrassing themselves with brexit and boris nowadays)

Too bad David Dimbleby isn't around anymore to open the broadcast with "this is the most exciting election in years" for the 3937th consecutive time.