Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys McBath is ahead rn on CNN

[Storr]

CNN calling New Hampshire for Sununu seems premature.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lucy McBath leads 155,076-153,641.

[gf20202]

Montana twitter:

@DaveWeigel (comparing it to CTGov)
Similar situation in #MTSen -- a bunch of outstanding areas where Dems run up the score.

@guypbenson
But outstanding MT vote looks Tester favorable.

[gf20202]

Lucy McBath leads 155,076-153,641.

What a Blood (mc)Bath!

[Ben.]

Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

If McSally narrowly wins, that would be embarrassing for Democrats. Especially since Flake only barely won in 2012 and since Sinema led in the polls throughout much of the year until McSally won the nomination.

I might have the counties wrong, but if they stay how they currently are I don't see where the votes comes from.

A narrow McSally win or loss in Maricopa County would be enough for her to win overall, given that she is holding the Republican rural counties.

If she is only meeting the benchmark in the rural areas I would say she loses consider this election has really polarized on a urban suburban divide.

You are right. 93% of the precincts are reporting at this point, according to the Huffington Post (though I've read about the extra ballots that will have to be counted). I also read that the remaining precincts are ones located in Maricopa County.

Maricopa County is currently really tight, Sinema up 452,208 to 449,990. That's with about 83% in.

About 14% left to come in from Apache County as well, so far that county has split about 60/40 to Sinema.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

There's no way it would get the requisite 2/3 in both houses and 3/4 of the states, but it would be nice to strip the Senate of its power and make it more of an advisory body like the Lords in the UK.

There are ways to get around that if you really want to. When push comes to shove, the Constitution can be amended with an effective simple majority vote via temporarily admitted new fake states (rotten borough states) in order to increase the # of votes that you have. And there are probably various other ways to accomplish the same thing, which I haven't thought of but that might be more artful.

Wouldn't we then need a majority in the Senate to get these temporary states admitted? Quite frankly, I do not see that happening any time soon...no way Democrats are picking up 5 seats in 2020. 2-3 was possible, 5? No way.

In the end, I'd be on board so long as California (a state that would be temporarily split up, I'm sure) is guaranteed to be reunified once the scheme is over.

Yes. Converting America into a representative democracy is a long term multi-year project. It is unlikely to happen by 2020. It could take a decade or potentially more. But it is a prerequisite for achieving any other policy goals that you may have. The sooner we realize the problem and get started towards fixing it, the sooner we can move on to other more important substantive issues.

[Pericles]

Florida going to automatic recount!

[Hammy]

What's Tester's shot to hang on?

82% chance of winning.

R margin quite a bit larger than last check--where are the remaining votes coming from?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

[President Johnson]

Imagine of Hilldog was president now. The senate would be a disaster. Tester, Brown, Manchin and maybe Stebenow would be gone. Possible Kaine's old seat as well.

However, I think there is a chance the Republicans keep the senate in 2020, even if a Democrat ousts Trump.

[lfromnj]

What's Tester's shot to hang on?

82% chance of winning.

R margin quite a bit larger than last check--where are the remaining votes coming from?

hmm maybe  Missoula.
Obviously it can't be Gallatin
Tester is  #populist so he will win garfield county due to a recount but will lose Gallatin due to it being a Romney Clinton county.

[gf20202]

I gotta turn in. Things feel bleak for Sinema in AZ. Hope I wake up to a surprise.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

NM-02 seems to be narrowing. Maybe Xochitl has a chance to win there still.

[Calthrina950]

Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

If McSally narrowly wins, that would be embarrassing for Democrats. Especially since Flake only barely won in 2012 and since Sinema led in the polls throughout much of the year until McSally won the nomination.

I might have the counties wrong, but if they stay how they currently are I don't see where the votes comes from.

A narrow McSally win or loss in Maricopa County would be enough for her to win overall, given that she is holding the Republican rural counties.

If she is only meeting the benchmark in the rural areas I would say she loses consider this election has really polarized on a urban suburban divide.

You are right. 93% of the precincts are reporting at this point, according to the Huffington Post (though I've read about the extra ballots that will have to be counted). I also read that the remaining precincts are ones located in Maricopa County.

Maricopa County is currently really tight, Sinema up 452,208 to 449,990. That's with about 83% in.

About 14% left to come in from Apache County as well, so far that county has split about 60/40 to Sinema.

There is still hope for Sinema yet. But we will see.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

AZ SoS said that there are "hundreds of thousands of votes" untabulated.

We're not going to know anything about AZ until later this week.

[IceSpear]

AZ SoS said that there are "hundreds of thousands of votes" untabulated.

We're not going to know anything about AZ until later this week.

Yeah, anyone waiting for this one tonight/today...probably not gonna happen.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Imagine of Hilldog was president now. The senate would be a disaster. Tester, Brown, Manchin and maybe Stebenow would be gone. Possible Kaine's old seat as well.

However, I think there is a chance the Republicans keep the senate in 2020, even if a Democrat ousts Trump.

And because of the gerrymandering, it's possible that Republicans could pick up the House at the same time. The Republicans would then get 17 days of the trifecta before the Democratic President took office.  Something vaugely like this happened before. In 2000, the Democrats picked up the Senate for 17 days.

[Hammy]

AZ SoS said that there are "hundreds of thousands of votes" untabulated.

We're not going to know anything about AZ until later this week.

So no point staying up for a call then

[Calthrina950]

AZ SoS said that there are "hundreds of thousands of votes" untabulated.

We're not going to know anything about AZ until later this week.

Yeah, anyone waiting for this one tonight/today...probably not gonna happen.

Not surprising. Though it is something that Ducey won by such a landslide margin-roughly 18 percentage points. McSally is running about 9% behind him thus far.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

AZ SoS said that there are "hundreds of thousands of votes" untabulated.

We're not going to know anything about AZ until later this week.

Yeah, anyone waiting for this one tonight/today...probably not gonna happen.

What about MT-Sen? Do we expect a call for that soon?

[Storr]

AZ SoS said that there are "hundreds of thousands of votes" untabulated.

We're not going to know anything about AZ until later this week.

Yeah, anyone waiting for this one tonight/today...probably not gonna happen.

What about MT-Sen? Do we expect a call for that soon?

Whenever Missoula and Cascade (Great Falls) Counties get their votes in, probably.

[Ben.]

AZ SoS said that there are "hundreds of thousands of votes" untabulated.

We're not going to know anything about AZ until later this week.

Yeah, anyone waiting for this one tonight/today...probably not gonna happen.

Not surprising. Though it is something that Ducey won by such a landslide margin-roughly 18 percentage points. McSally is running about 9% behind him thus far.

Does the 98% counted figure referenced on the SoS website exclude these untabulated votes?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

AZ SoS said that there are "hundreds of thousands of votes" untabulated.

We're not going to know anything about AZ until later this week.

Yeah, anyone waiting for this one tonight/today...probably not gonna happen.

Not surprising. Though it is something that Ducey won by such a landslide margin-roughly 18 percentage points. McSally is running about 9% behind him thus far.

Does the 98% counted figure referenced on the SoS website exclude these untabulated votes?

Based on this I'm assuming not:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/415434-no-winner-will-be-announced-in-arizona-senate-race-on-tuesday-night

[MillennialModerate]

Democrats need a Hail Mary in a Montana and Arizona