2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

More evidence that Morning Consult poll is absolute trash:

Dems only lead the GOP by 4 points when it comes to which party the public trusts more on healthcare, and yet, the GOP leads by 6 points on immigration despite the fact DACA is popular and championed by the Democrats. MC is garbage.

[Virginiá]

More evidence that Morning Consult poll is absolute trash:

Dems only lead the GOP by 4 points when it comes to which party the public trusts more on healthcare, and yet, the GOP leads by 6 points on immigration despite the fact DACA is popular and championed by the Democrats. MC is garbage.

Republicans also led by +5 in a single 2008 poll (USA Today/Gallup) and in 2006, they had a couple tied polls month(s) before the election.

Republicans/Trump have recovered some since late December - that's not in question imo, so I'm not surprised to see MC with very favorable results for them, but I'm pretty sure that the state of the environment is not R+1 right now. Given the fundamentals of this year and literally every other non-poll marker (retirements/fundraising/recruitment/special elections/etc) being enormously in favor of Democrats, I'm very confident this election is going to go badly for Republicans. The only question is how badly - D+12 would be substantially worse than D+7, for instance.

I think if Democrats are poised to blow it, we'll probably see them in the lower end of mid-single digits in September/October with even more tightening in the last couple weeks. Other than that, there is just too much going wrong for Republicans to think otherwise.

[GeorgiaModerate]

More evidence that Morning Consult poll is absolute trash:

Dems only lead the GOP by 4 points when it comes to which party the public trusts more on healthcare, and yet, the GOP leads by 6 points on immigration despite the fact DACA is popular and championed by the Democrats. MC is garbage.

Yeah, this poll is garbage.  For one thing, the demographics don't add up.  Their raw data says (https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000161-915b-d53a-a5f5-b57fafea0000 page 18):

White 1617 81%
Hispanic 178 9%
Black 255 13%
Other 113 6%

Those percentages add up to 109%.

[adrac]

The percentage whites seems to be the most off. Imagine if this were just a weighting error?

[Gass3268]

Genertic Ballot Amoung Likley Voters in PA-18:

Republicans 43%
Democrats 40%

Source

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The GOP should be sh**tting themselves over that PA18 poll.

[KingSweden]

Genertic Ballot Amoung Likley Voters in PA-18:

Republicans 43%
Democrats 40%

Source

Bear in mind this district is R+11

[LimoLiberal]

Trying to have a running record of all polls here.

Fresh poll!

[Young Conservative]

Trying to have a running record of all polls here.

Fresh poll!

Essentially a tie between Democratic candidates and Republican candidates. However, Republicans are benefiting from fewer candidates.

[The Other Castro]

^The undecideds appear to be more liberal leaning as well.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb 11-15, 1241 RV

D 42 (nc)
R 36 (-1)

[LimoLiberal]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb 11-15, 1241 RV

D 42 (nc)
R 36 (-1)

No signs of recovery for Democrats even after what should've been a bad few weeks for Republicans.

[UncleSam]

I think the second moment of public opinion is shifting moreso than the first. In other words, Rs both had a positive shift and momentum over the last month or so. Now, momentum is shifting back to the Democrats, just the short term trend isn't showing it yet.

[junior chįmp]

I think the second moment of public opinion is shifting moreso than the first. In other words, Rs both had a positive shift and momentum over the last month or so. Now, momentum is shifting back to the Democrats, just the short term trend isn't showing it yet.

In other words....standard operating procedure of all.midterms going back 70 years

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

In light of the Florida shootings, I expect the momentum to shift back to the Democrats.

[Sadader]

More evidence that Morning Consult poll is absolute trash:

Dems only lead the GOP by 4 points when it comes to which party the public trusts more on healthcare, and yet, the GOP leads by 6 points on immigration despite the fact DACA is popular and championed by the Democrats. MC is garbage.

Yeah, this poll is garbage.  For one thing, the demographics don't add up.  Their raw data says ( page 18):

White 1617 81%
Hispanic 178 9%
Black 255 13%
Other 113 6%

Those percentages add up to 109%.

Hispanic isn’t marked as its own race. You can be White/Hispanic or Black/Hispanic. It seems like the poll identified 9% as Hispanic and White, so if you get rid of that overlap it tallies up to 100%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

More evidence that Morning Consult poll is absolute trash:

Dems only lead the GOP by 4 points when it comes to which party the public trusts more on healthcare, and yet, the GOP leads by 6 points on immigration despite the fact DACA is popular and championed by the Democrats. MC is garbage.

Yeah, this poll is garbage.  For one thing, the demographics don't add up.  Their raw data says ( page 18):

White 1617 81%
Hispanic 178 9%
Black 255 13%
Other 113 6%

Those percentages add up to 109%.

Hispanic isn’t marked as its own race. You can be White/Hispanic or Black/Hispanic. It seems like the poll identified 9% as Hispanic and White, so if you get rid of that overlap it tallies up to 100%.

That makes sense.  Good catch.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://static.texastribune.org/media/documents/ut-tt-2018-02-summary-1.pdf?_ga=2.225578778.1647027925.1519049485-1170111650.1519049485 on page 9/19, GOP leads Generic Congressional Ballot by 3 in Texas.

[LimoLiberal]

https://static.texastribune.org/media/documents/ut-tt-2018-02-summary-1.pdf?_ga=2.225578778.1647027925.1519049485-1170111650.1519049485 on page 9/19, GOP leads Generic Congressional Ballot by 3 in Texas.

For reference, in 2016 the GOP won 57-37. Sessions, Hurd, and Culberson are probably f**ked if this is right.

[Virginiá]

https://static.texastribune.org/media/documents/ut-tt-2018-02-summary-1.pdf?_ga=2.225578778.1647027925.1519049485-1170111650.1519049485 on page 9/19, GOP leads Generic Congressional Ballot by 3 in Texas.

For reference, in 2016 the GOP won 57-37. Sessions, Hurd, and Culberson are probably f**ked if this is right.

More than just those 3 would be screwed if Republicans only won the House popular vote by 3 points in Texas.

[windjammer]

https://static.texastribune.org/media/documents/ut-tt-2018-02-summary-1.pdf?_ga=2.225578778.1647027925.1519049485-1170111650.1519049485 on page 9/19, GOP leads Generic Congressional Ballot by 3 in Texas.

For reference, in 2016 the GOP won 57-37. Sessions, Hurd, and Culberson are probably f**ked if this is right.

A lot more than just those 3 would be screwed if Republicans only won the House popular vote by 3 points in Texas.

Hmmmn, probably not. All the other districts have been carried by Trump by at least 10 points. Unless the swings are concentrated in some areas.

[Landslide Lyndon]

@gelliottmorris

#New PA cong. map increases D chance of winning the House majority by 4%. They only need a 6.8% generic ballot margin now (down from 7.7) to be favored.

Diff. will be closer to 10% in Nov when uncertainty from polls is ⬇️. Redraw is a very big deal.

[Gass3268]

https://static.texastribune.org/media/documents/ut-tt-2018-02-summary-1.pdf?_ga=2.225578778.1647027925.1519049485-1170111650.1519049485 on page 9/19, GOP leads Generic Congressional Ballot by 3 in Texas.

For reference, in 2016 the GOP won 57-37. Sessions, Hurd, and Culberson are probably f**ked if this is right.

A lot more than just those 3 would be screwed if Republicans only won the House popular vote by 3 points in Texas.

Hmmmn, probably not. All the other districts have been carried by Trump by at least 10 points. Unless the swings are concentrated in some areas.

TX-02 and TX-21 are outside possibilities

[Virginiá]

https://static.texastribune.org/media/documents/ut-tt-2018-02-summary-1.pdf?_ga=2.225578778.1647027925.1519049485-1170111650.1519049485 on page 9/19, GOP leads Generic Congressional Ballot by 3 in Texas.

For reference, in 2016 the GOP won 57-37. Sessions, Hurd, and Culberson are probably f**ked if this is right.

A lot more than just those 3 would be screwed if Republicans only won the House popular vote by 3 points in Texas.

Hmmmn, probably not. All the other districts have been carried by Trump by at least 10 points. Unless the swings are concentrated in some areas.

The swing wouldn't be even at all though. For instance, among other districts, Clinton's improvement disproportionately hit these districts:

TX-21
TX-22
TX-24
TX-32

Absurdly Republican seats like TX-19 and TX-36 barely moved at all, and in fact in those two cases went more for Trump than they did for Romney.

So if I had to guess, Marchant and Smith's seats might be candidates for competitive seats under R+3 House PV in TX, even if not by much.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Can we talk more about the fact that a political party needs to win by 6 + percentage points of the popular vote to even begin to think about wielding political power, and how any Republican can defend this as anything but a gross abrogation of a democratic system of government.