SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS: IL, IN, KY, MI, MD, MO, OH, WV

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

. NV-look for Angle-R to challenge Ensign-R in the GOP primary.

I'd expect Lowden to get in that as well if Heller doesn't.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

25 of the Seats Republicans picked up plus Republican held seats in IL-10,WA-8 may likely go Democratic in 2012.

Based on what, 6.5% unemployment in 2012?  ....it outcome of the 2012 House races totally depends on the state of the 2012 race.  If the economy somewhat recovers and Obama thrashes Palin by 15, then, yes, these seats will switch back.  But if the economy is bad in 2012 (unemployment >8.5%) and Obama loses by 10 to someone like Pence, the GOP could easily pick up another 20 House seats in 2012.

Also, I think you're ignoring the geopolitical challenges Obama is more than likely to face in the next 24 months:  99% chance Iraq and Afghanistan will be basket-cases with the US coming home losers…>50% chance Pakistan falls...90% chance Israel will fights another war with Lebanon when the Hezbollah takes over (this is already baked in and is a done deal and is simply awaiting the Special Tribunal for Lebanon), which could easily spill over to involve Syria and Iran…99% chance Turkey will continue its lurch away from secular government and align itself more and more with Iran….and so on and so on.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Republicans are going to lose MA-Brown-R loses to a top tier DEM challenger.

NEAL PATEL FOR SENATE

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Democrats are going to retain control of the US Senate in 2012.
Since the breakdown is going to be 53-47.  Republicans need to pick up 4 seats assuming Obama-D wins re-election.
Republicans are going to lose MA-Brown-R loses to a top tier DEM challenger. NV-look for Angle-R to challenge Ensign-R in the GOP primary. ME-Snowe-R gets teabagged.  -3R
Republicans need to win 7 Democratic held Seats in 2012.
They pick up NE,MO,MT if Rehberg-R runs. OH,VA,and WI-if OPEN are in the tossup collumn-Democratic GOTV is strong.

This is a joke, right?  Why would Angle, after losing to Reid, be nominated again?  And all Snowe has to do to be renominated and reelected is pivot slightly to the right and vote with the GOP to strike down Obamacare and extend the Bush tax cuts.  A slight pivot to the right coupled with the memory of Angle-ODonnell-Miller will keep Snowe from melting.

If unemployment remains >8.5%, expect a slew of Dem retirements in the red states plus Dem loses in the blue states.  Also, expect the GOP to field a MUCH stronger group of candidates than they did in 2010.

[GMantis]

25 of the Seats Republicans picked up plus Republican held seats in IL-10,WA-8 may likely go Democratic in 2012.

Also, I think you're ignoring the geopolitical challenges Obama is more than likely to face in the next 24 months:  99% chance Iraq and Afghanistan will be basket-cases with the US coming home losers…>50% chance Pakistan falls...90% chance Israel will fights another war with Lebanon when the Hezbollah takes over (this is already baked in and is a done deal and is simply awaiting the Special Tribunal for Lebanon), which could easily spill over to involve Syria and Iran…99% chance Turkey will continue its lurch away from secular government and align itself more and more with Iran….and so on and so on.

You're overestimating the degree to which most voters in the US care about the Middle East. In this election cycle, they were basically ignored. Iraq is already a basket case but because there are a bit less bombings than a few years ago the US army is abandoning the country, to general approval of the US public. As for Afghanistan, the Republicans will hardly attack him for his current aggressive policy there and if a proper narrative of decreased violence is made, an eventual withdrawal will be met with support.
There is no reason that an Israeli-Lebanon war should impact the Obama administration negatively. The last such war had little impact on US politics.
And the comment about Turkey is ridiculous. Obama, like Bush wants to use Turkey against the EU and Russia and whatever way Turkey moves will not change this.
In any case, the economy will probably be the leading election in the next election as well and will drive foreign policy to the sidelines.

[Linus Van Pelt]

In the end, Dingell didn't have to rely on Washtenaw, winning the remainder of the district 52-48. He did lose Monroe county though.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

25 of the Seats Republicans picked up plus Republican held seats in IL-10,WA-8 may likely go Democratic in 2012.

Also, I think you're ignoring the geopolitical challenges Obama is more than likely to face in the next 24 months:  99% chance Iraq and Afghanistan will be basket-cases with the US coming home losers…>50% chance Pakistan falls...90% chance Israel will fights another war with Lebanon when the Hezbollah takes over (this is already baked in and is a done deal and is simply awaiting the Special Tribunal for Lebanon), which could easily spill over to involve Syria and Iran…99% chance Turkey will continue its lurch away from secular government and align itself more and more with Iran….and so on and so on.

You're overestimating the degree to which most voters in the US care about the Middle East. In this election cycle, they were basically ignored. Iraq is already a basket case but because there are a bit less bombings than a few years ago the US army is abandoning the country, to general approval of the US public. As for Afghanistan, the Republicans will hardly attack him for his current aggressive policy there and if a proper narrative of decreased violence is made, an eventual withdrawal will be met with support.

1)   Middle east was not an issue in 2010 because the sides have simply been in a period of rearming for the next war.
2)   It’s not going to make Obama look good when Iran owns Iraq and the Taliban owns Afghanistan and nuclear-armed Pakistan.  Believe it or not, the majority of America will care, even if you don’t.

There is no reason that an Israeli-Lebanon war should impact the Obama administration negatively. The last such war had little impact on US politics.

This statement is simply ignorant on many levels.  Ignorant of the fact the last Israeli-Lebanese war was not a full-scale war, but simply a dry run.  Ignorant of the fact a Hezbollah takeover of Lebanon will start a full-scale war between Lebanon and Israel.  Ignorant of the fact Israel has openly threatened to bomb Damascus if Hezbollah takes over Lebanon.  Ignorant of the fact Saudi Arabia has called on the Lebanese PM to resign.  Ignorant of the fact it would most likely be a full scale war between Israel and Lebanon/Syria/Hezbollah/Hamas/PA/Iran, with Turkey a possible participant siding with the Muslims.
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And the comment about Turkey is ridiculous. Obama, like Bush wants to use Turkey against the EU and Russia and whatever way Turkey moves will not change this.

Ignorant of the news of the past year…unless, of course, you think it was Obama who used Turkey to attempt to break Israel’s naval blockade of Gaza…also, maybe you’d like to comment on Turkey removing Iran this week from it’s Red Book, while at the same time adding Israel to the Red Book.  Was that also a ploy of Obama?  It’s Turkey that is using the US and EU to gain legitimacy for the AKP while at the same time weakening the role of it traditionally secular military.  You need to back up exactly 8 years from  today and trace the steps of the AKP, because it is from that date the US lost the ability to “use” Turkey.  Since then, the worm has turned.

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In any case, the economy will probably be the leading election in the next election as well and will drive foreign policy to the sidelines.

Ignorant of the fact such a war would probably send the price of gasoline in the United States to over $5/gallon.  But, hey, don’t worry, I’m sure American public won’t notice that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dingell is a canny old sod; much more than most other ancient incumbents, it seems.

[nkpatel1279]

During the 1994 GOP Wave- One of the casualties in the US House was Maria Cantwell of WA. SHe lost re-election to her WA-1 US House Seat-which was a Democratic leaning Swing District by a high single digit margin. 6 years later in 2000- She ran for the US Senate and defeated long time Rep incumbent Mr. Slate Gorton. WA Republicans love the Flintstones.
Any chance soon to be ex PA US Rep Patrick Murphy follow Cantwell path- run for US Senate in 2016 against Pat Toomey.
Regarding backbencher freshman IL US Senator Mark Kirk. Dem challengers against Kirk will start Lisa Madigan- but she will pass in order to run for Governor in 2018, Then it will be IL-5 US Rep Mike Quigley, (Hoffman,Hynes,or Giannoulias) will be 2nd or 3rd choice candidates. I rate than Giannoulias states a 50-50 chance of winning a rematch.  The wild card is Michelle Obama-will she follow Hillary Clinton's lead. 
Look for Ron Kind to challenge Ron Johnson-WI.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I hope Kirk enjoys his term (+2 months) in office, because I don't see how the hell he could get re-elected in a presidential year against a better opponent (it can hardly be someone worse than Alexi, right?). Winning every county save Cook and one tiny one in the very southern tip of the state equates to a 2-point victory.

[nkpatel1279]

Kirk won both races- the Special Election to fill the remainder of Obama/Burris terms and the next next 6 years until 2016.
Giannoulias should have followed Lisa Madigan and Beau Biden's lead and taken the safe route- ran for re-election as IL Treasurer- Giannoulias would have won re-election. Then Giannoulias could have ran for Governor in 2018, US Senate in 2014 or 2020-when Durbin steps down.  Dan Hynes should have been the IL Statewide Constitutional Officer to take the US Senate plunge-assuming Lisa Madigan took a pass.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I wasn't talking to you.

[nkpatel1279]

Harry Reid-NV and Russ Feingold-WI faced tough re-election campaigns before in 1998 against cloass of 1994 GOP House Members John Ensign(NV) and Mark Neumann(WI)- Both narrowly won re-election. Had Reid-NV and Feingold-WI lost in 1998. Ensign(R-NV) would have been facing re-election this year and Reid would been up for re-election in 2012.
Neumann-WI would be facing re-election this year.

[ag]

Ignorant

A bit amusing on two counts ) Firstly, the current Turkish government is a lot more secular than, say, you )) And, secondly, I am always amused by your support of a certain radically anti-Christian government in the Middle East, the one that openly believes both Jesus Christ and his followers to be evil.

[nkpatel1279]

During the 1994 and 2010 GOP wave- 2 Democratic Incumbent US Senators lost re-election.
Red State DEM incumbents Jim Sasser-TN1994 and Blanche Lincoln-AR2010- lost by a landslide margins. Purple State DEM incumbents Harris Wofford-PA1994 and Russ Feingold-WI2010- lost by a narrow margin.  
1994- Republicans won open DEM seats in AZ,OK,and TN were Red or Red trending states. OH-Top Tier GOP vs generic DEM. MI- Generic DEM vs Generic REP- 1994 wave. and ME-Top Tier GOP vs generic DEM. had Snowe been Palinized in 1994- Tom Andrews would have been US Senator of ME.
2010- Republicans won open DEM seats in ND,IN-OPEN Seats in red states-Top Tier GOP vs generic DEM. PA-Swing state Generic DEM vs Generic REP-national wave- IL-narrow loss due to sacandals- A non controversial DEM nominee would have kept IL in the DEM collumn.  Democrats kept WV-due to Manchin candidacy and DE-due to Teabbaggers.

[Sam Spade]

If one party controls the Southern part of this forum, can we bring back segregation?

[nkpatel1279]

NH is the only State that has 2 female US Senators from different parties.