TX-SurveyUSA: Trump vs. Dems close, but Cruz/Rubio easily beat them (user search)
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  TX-SurveyUSA: Trump vs. Dems close, but Cruz/Rubio easily beat them (search mode)
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Author Topic: TX-SurveyUSA: Trump vs. Dems close, but Cruz/Rubio easily beat them  (Read 3796 times)
pbrower2a
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« on: February 27, 2016, 08:14:14 AM »

So according to the early general election polls, Hillary is doing better in Texas and Utah than Minnesota and Michigan.

UT ?

The last polls I saw had the Republicans up by a lot there.

The last polls that I saw of Utah had all Republicans except Trump doing well in Utah. I simply see Donald Trump as the worst possible fit that any Republican can be in Utah due to his involvement in businesses that offend Mormon values and his multiple divorces. Utah has been about as solidly and consistently Republican as any state since Dwight Eisenhower won over LDS hierarch Ezra Taft Benson before the 1952 election.

I can see tepid support by Mormons in Utah for Donald Trump putting Utah (and Arizona, which is much closer than Utah in most elections and has a large Mormon vote) in play. Just think of West Virginia in 1972, then typically a very solid Democratic state, being one of the strongest states for Richard Nixon: voters rejected George McGovern for his real or imagined affiliations with a left-wing culture that has no roots in West Virginia.
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pbrower2a
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Posts: 26,854
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« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2016, 09:41:10 AM »

Rubio is more popular than Cruz in his own home state.

Texans obviously know Ted Cruz far better than they know Marco Rubio. 
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pbrower2a
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Posts: 26,854
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« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2016, 09:48:56 AM »

So according to the early general election polls, Hillary is doing better in Texas and Utah than Minnesota and Michigan.

UT ?

The last polls I saw had the Republicans up by a lot there.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226330.0

Polls are really unstable at this point though and many Republicans are uneasy about voting for Trump and many Dems/Indies are not sold on Clinton in the GE.

Texas is a difficult state to poll well due to its regional differences  and ethnic diversity. Texas straddles regions of the US and is not a region unto itself. One needs a giant sample to get viable polling in Texas, and that is fiendishly expensive.   

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Any Republican must now reasonably expect to win Texas by at least 15% to have a reasonable chance of winning nationwide.
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