Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition

[Meeker]

The Olsen/Clark race is past over.

King now up 52-48.

[Meeker]

There's a black State Senator on MSNBC right now saying that one of the Milwaukee wards had 56 voters in the April Supreme Court race but had more than 1,000 (!) voters today.

I mention that she's black because low African-American turnout in the April race was what killed Kloppenberg.

[Meeker]

AP added in the Fond du Lac numbers and Hopper is only ahead by 500.

ALL of Fond du Lac.

[Meeker]

The Winnebago County website has a few more precincts in than the AP does and they have King going from 53% to 54%.

[Meeker]

I know you shouldnt read too much into these elections, but the fact that the GOP is managing to do as well as they (especially with the tv drama of the angry left and protesting) are, should be an indication of how strong the GOP is in the state compared to even 10 years ago.  It bodes well for 2012.

With low turnout and $30 million spent, mostly from shadow right-wing groups, we shouldn't be surprised....

These are also all Republican districts with the exception of SD-32...

[Meeker]

This dude on MSNBC keeps claiming that Oshkosh hasn't reported yet which if true bodes very well for King.

[Meeker]

The rest of Washington County just came in, Pasch is still up 51-49.

15 precincts left in Milwaukee; 15 precincts left in the suburbs.

[Meeker]

Luther Olsen ended up only winning 52-48.

[Meeker]

Good to see we picked up two but obviously a tad disappointing. However, this was just the appetizer. If this swing is extrapolated statewide it means Walker's recall next year will be a toss-up. I look forward to it.

Additionally, anyone trying to draw "messages" from this result - on either side - needs to stop. If 1,000 votes in SD-14 had flipped then this would have been heralded as the rebirth of the modern labor movement. Since that didn't happen it's apparently a rejection of Democratic politics and the power of organized labor and an endorsement of Walker's agenda. Both interpretations are foolish. These were six individual races with unique dynamics fought on a variety of issues. What happened happened.

J.J. has also really outdone himself in this thread. Your cluelessness knows no bounds, old chap!

[Meeker]

Good to see we picked up two but obviously a tad disappointing. However, this was just the appetizer. If this swing is extrapolated statewide it means Walker's recall next year will be a toss-up. I look forward to it.

Additionally, anyone trying to draw "messages" from this result - on either side - needs to stop. If 1,000 votes in SD-14 had flipped then this would have been heralded as the rebirth of the modern labor movement. Since that didn't happen it's apparently a rejection of Democratic politics and the power of organized labor and an endorsement of Walker's agenda. Both interpretations are foolish. These were six individual races with unique dynamics fought on a variety of issues. What happened happened.

And, if a certain Senator hadn't had a marital split that may have resulted in his losing even less than a 1,000 voters, the message of this election to Democrats would have been "pound sand."

Yes. That's correct. Thank you for proving my point.

[Meeker]

You clearly missed the point entirely. I guess that's why I have you on ignore and will continue to.

[Meeker]

Final poll roundup:

SD-12
PPP: 55-41 Holperin (Holperin +14)
WAA: 51-49 Holperin (Holperin +2)
Final (more or less) result: 55-45 Holperin (Holperin +10)

PPP was off by 4, they weren't as far off as everyone thought. WAA was off by 8.

SD-22

PPP: 55-42 Wirch (Wirch +13)
Final result: 58-42 Wirch (Wirch +16)

And PPP underestimated Wirch a bit, but they were only off by 3.

lulz Krazen

[Meeker]

Comparing the precincts in that are in so far in SD-21 to their 2010 results actually has the Democrat doing well enough to win the seat if it's extrapolated out. No telling whether that will hold once the remaining 78% of precincts come in though.

[Meeker]

... and now he's 1/4 of a percent below where he needs to be with a few more precincts reporting. Won't know this one for a while at the rate Racine County is counting.

[Meeker]

... and now he's 1/4 of a percent below where he needs to be with a few more precincts reporting. Won't know this one for a while at the rate Racine County is counting.

How do you know which precincts are reporting, I thought you could only see the total county report?

http://www.elections.racineco.com/voting/index.aspx

[Meeker]

We won! The Democrat is ahead by 900 votes with one precinct left.

[Meeker]

We won! The Democrat is ahead by 900 votes with one precinct left.

It's not even close to over.  I have the Democrat up by 796 votes with two precincts left.  One of the precincts gave Walker a 800 vote margin in 2010... So...

Local paper disagrees: http://www.journaltimes.com/racine-county-recall-election-results/html_3bf1be68-ae8d-11e1-bcb9-001a4bcf887a.html

[Meeker]

Lehman and the DLCC have declared victory

[Meeker]

We won! The Democrat is ahead by 900 votes with one precinct left.

It's not even close to over.  I have the Democrat up by 796 votes with two precincts left.  One of the precincts gave Walker a 800 vote margin in 2010... So...

Local paper disagrees: http://www.journaltimes.com/racine-county-recall-election-results/html_3bf1be68-ae8d-11e1-bcb9-001a4bcf887a.html

825 doesn't equal 900 - and is closer to my 796 tally.

Anyway, if the missing precinct is the village of Waterford, it went to Walker by 854 and Kleefisch by 809 in this election.  The results for the SD-21 race are still missing.  Regardless of whether the margin is 796 or 825, it should be razor thin and go to absentees and a recount.

It's not in Waterford; it's a precinct in Mount Pleasent that Walker won by less than 100 votes in 2010 (933-853 to be exact).

Lehman will finish election night ahead by at least 650 votes.

[Meeker]

Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   

[Meeker]

Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   

Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

No State Senate Democrat who wants any political future whatsoever will touch anything that comes out of Scott Walker's office.

[Meeker]

Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   

Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

No State Senate Democrat who wants any political future whatsoever will touch anything that comes out of Scott Walker's office.

Another way of looking at this is that the Democratic State Senate caucus now consists of the Wisconsin 14 (who left for Illinois in 2011 to stall the collective bargaining bill) and three recall winners. Pretty safely anti-Walker crew.

[Meeker]

Yeah, having a new set of voters recall someone that a different set of voters elected is pretty obviously not a fair thing.