CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[KingSweden]

Any new updates on CA48?

Current count:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   38,629   30.5%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   21,893   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   21,806   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   20,332   16.0%

Next update at 5pm PDT Monday.  https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2018/results.htm

That was the count yesterday so we got no new info dump today

The slow count in this election and all the recent elections in Washington, Oregon, and Colorado is a good argument against taking those voting systems national.

Outside of razor-thin elections, usually local ones, you'll know the night of who has won in WA. Can't speak for any other ones.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Any new updates on CA48?

Current count:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   38,629   30.5%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   21,893   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   21,806   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   20,332   16.0%

Next update at 5pm PDT Monday.  https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2018/results.htm

That was the count yesterday so we got no new info dump today

The slow count in this election and all the recent elections in Washington, Oregon, and Colorado is a good argument against taking those voting systems national.

Outside of razor-thin elections, usually local ones, you'll know the night of who has won in WA. Can't speak for any other ones.

Would the 2016 Presidential results have been known that night.  What about 1960?  I do not think you undestand the possible trauma.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Any new updates on CA48?

Current count:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   38,629   30.5%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   21,893   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   21,806   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   20,332   16.0%

Next update at 5pm PDT Monday.  https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2018/results.htm

That was the count yesterday so we got no new info dump today

The slow count in this election and all the recent elections in Washington, Oregon, and Colorado is a good argument against taking those voting systems national.

Outside of razor-thin elections, usually local ones, you'll know the night of who has won in WA. Can't speak for any other ones.

Would the 2016 Presidential results have been known that night.  What about 1960?  I do not think you undestand the possible trauma.

Regardless of in what sense you are asking about 2016, there is no crisis. If you're talking about the 2016 election in WA - Hillary won by a landslide and that was clear in the initial results. If you're talking about the ~70,000 combined vote margin in the three states that decided the election, that is outside of the sort of margin that typically would be decided by late ballots alone. If you're talking about the NPV - a two point margin of victory might take a couple of days to be fully confident in depending on the turnout level, yes - but that is a minor inconvenience, not a trauma. Most of America is not election geeks and should be able to handle not knowing the result right away. The security of the country is not at risk from not knowing the result of the election for a day or two.

And in the specific context of the elections we are speaking about here - primaries - there is little to no urgency to know the winner.

[DINGO Joe]

Right. Is there a regularly updated site that lists the current totals for all the CDs?

https://vote.sos.ca.gov/

[Badger]

Any new updates on CA48?

Current count:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   38,629   30.5%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   21,893   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   21,806   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   20,332   16.0%

Next update at 5pm PDT Monday.  https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2018/results.htm

That was the count yesterday so we got no new info dump today

The slow count in this election and all the recent elections in Washington, Oregon, and Colorado is a good argument against taking those voting systems national.

Outside of razor-thin elections, usually local ones, you'll know the night of who has won in WA. Can't speak for any other ones.

Would the 2016 Presidential results have been known that night.  What about 1960?  I do not think you undestand the possible trauma.

"Trauma".

[IceSpear]

Any new updates on CA48?

Current count:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   38,629   30.5%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   21,893   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   21,806   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   20,332   16.0%

Next update at 5pm PDT Monday.  https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2018/results.htm

That was the count yesterday so we got no new info dump today

The slow count in this election and all the recent elections in Washington, Oregon, and Colorado is a good argument against taking those voting systems national.

Outside of razor-thin elections, usually local ones, you'll know the night of who has won in WA. Can't speak for any other ones.

Would the 2016 Presidential results have been known that night.  What about 1960?  I do not think you undestand the possible trauma.

Regardless of in what sense you are asking about 2016, there is no crisis. If you're talking about the 2016 election in WA - Hillary won by a landslide and that was clear in the initial results. If you're talking about the ~70,000 combined vote margin in the three states that decided the election, that is outside of the sort of margin that typically would be decided by late ballots alone. If you're talking about the NPV - a two point margin of victory might take a couple of days to be fully confident in depending on the turnout level, yes - but that is a minor inconvenience, not a trauma. Most of America is not election geeks and should be able to handle not knowing the result right away. The security of the country is not at risk from not knowing the result of the election for a day or two.

And in the specific context of the elections we are speaking about here - primaries - there is little to no urgency to know the winner.

A day or two would be fine. But it really shouldn't take a month before you have an official result. California counts absurdly slow.

[ON Progressive]

Any new updates on CA48?

Current count:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   38,629   30.5%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   21,893   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   21,806   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   20,332   16.0%

Next update at 5pm PDT Monday.  https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2018/results.htm

That was the count yesterday so we got no new info dump today

The slow count in this election and all the recent elections in Washington, Oregon, and Colorado is a good argument against taking those voting systems national.

Outside of razor-thin elections, usually local ones, you'll know the night of who has won in WA. Can't speak for any other ones.

Would the 2016 Presidential results have been known that night.  What about 1960?  I do not think you undestand the possible trauma.

Regardless of in what sense you are asking about 2016, there is no crisis. If you're talking about the 2016 election in WA - Hillary won by a landslide and that was clear in the initial results. If you're talking about the ~70,000 combined vote margin in the three states that decided the election, that is outside of the sort of margin that typically would be decided by late ballots alone. If you're talking about the NPV - a two point margin of victory might take a couple of days to be fully confident in depending on the turnout level, yes - but that is a minor inconvenience, not a trauma. Most of America is not election geeks and should be able to handle not knowing the result right away. The security of the country is not at risk from not knowing the result of the election for a day or two.

And in the specific context of the elections we are speaking about here - primaries - there is little to no urgency to know the winner.

A day or two would be fine. But it really shouldn't take a month before you have an official result. California counts absurdly slow.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Any new updates on CA48?

Current count:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   38,629   30.5%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   21,893   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   21,806   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   20,332   16.0%

Next update at 5pm PDT Monday.  https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2018/results.htm

That was the count yesterday so we got no new info dump today

The slow count in this election and all the recent elections in Washington, Oregon, and Colorado is a good argument against taking those voting systems national.

Outside of razor-thin elections, usually local ones, you'll know the night of who has won in WA. Can't speak for any other ones.

Would the 2016 Presidential results have been known that night.  What about 1960?  I do not think you undestand the possible trauma.

Regardless of in what sense you are asking about 2016, there is no crisis. If you're talking about the 2016 election in WA - Hillary won by a landslide and that was clear in the initial results. If you're talking about the ~70,000 combined vote margin in the three states that decided the election, that is outside of the sort of margin that typically would be decided by late ballots alone. If you're talking about the NPV - a two point margin of victory might take a couple of days to be fully confident in depending on the turnout level, yes - but that is a minor inconvenience, not a trauma. Most of America is not election geeks and should be able to handle not knowing the result right away. The security of the country is not at risk from not knowing the result of the election for a day or two.

And in the specific context of the elections we are speaking about here - primaries - there is little to no urgency to know the winner.

A day or two would be fine. But it really shouldn't take a month before you have an official result. California counts absurdly slow.

In terms of having a completely official result, in most states it takes about a month. Sure, in most states it's just UCOAVA ballots + provisionals - but it still takes about a month to have a truly official, certified result in most states. So what matters is when you know the result - when, despite the (technical) "unofficialness" of the result, the winner can be known. And here, there is not much difference between CA/WA/CO and other states  - just a matter of knowing the winner on Thursday or Friday of the election week versus knowing the morning after. In both cases, comfortable victories are known the night of.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Keirstead's lead for second widens a bit:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   40,703   30.6%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   23,077   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   22,705   17.0%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   21,467   16.1%

EDIT: Per Dave Wasserman, there have still been no Election Day provisionals counted, which he believes will strongly favor Rouda.

[Gass3268]

Votes counted today were very Democratic:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1006336569282912257

[DINGO Joe]

Keirstead's lead for second widens a bit:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   40,703   30.6%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   23,077   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   22,705   17.0%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   21,467   16.1%

EDIT: Per Dave Wasserman, there have still been no Election Day provisionals counted, which he believes will strongly favor Rouda.

Can't imagine why one would expect the provisionals to break hard for one candidate or the other when they seem awfully similar, and Wasserman doesn't seem willing or able to give a reason. 

[Young Conservative]

Keirstead's lead for second widens a bit:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   40,703   30.6%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   23,077   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   22,705   17.0%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   21,467   16.1%

EDIT: Per Dave Wasserman, there have still been no Election Day provisionals counted, which he believes will strongly favor Rouda.

Can't imagine why one would expect the provisionals to break hard for one candidate or the other when they seem awfully similar, and Wasserman doesn't seem willing or able to give a reason. 

[Coastal Elitist]

Votes counted today were very Democratic:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1006336569282912257

That's cause Alameda, San Francisco, Santa Clara and Santa Cruz all updated totals today while a bunch of the rural counties haven't updated in awhile. Also when that tweet was sent not all the updates were in. The SOS website shows that 5,287,829 votes have been counted.

[Holmes]

Votes counted today were very Democratic:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1006336569282912257

That's cause Alameda, San Francisco, Santa Clara and Santa Cruz all updated totals today while a bunch of the rural counties haven't updated in awhile. Also when that tweet was sent not all the updates were in. The SOS website shows that 5,287,829 votes have been counted.

Fwiw, a lot of rural and smaller counties just have one or two vote dumps and that's it vs. bigger counties that have regular updates.

[kph14]

Votes counted today were very Democratic:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1006336569282912257

That's cause Alameda, San Francisco, Santa Clara and Santa Cruz all updated totals today while a bunch of the rural counties haven't updated in awhile. Also when that tweet was sent not all the updates were in. The SOS website shows that 5,287,829 votes have been counted.

Fwiw, a lot of rural and smaller counties just have one or two vote dumps and that's it vs. bigger counties that have regular updates.

On other hand, LA county has not updated since June 8.

It's been a week since primary day now, so I might be interesting to get an overview what has happened in the competive districts:

CA-10: Dems at 47.8% (was 47.9% at 100% reporting at election night)
CA-21: Dem at 35.4% (was 36.1% at 100% reporting at election night)
CA-25: Dems at 47.1% (was 47.2% at 100% reporting at election night)
CA-39: Dems at 44.2% (no change since election night)
CA-45: Dems at 45.1% (was 44.5% at 100% reporting at election night)
CA-48: Dems at 45.7% (was 46.1% at 100% reporting at election night)
CA-49: Dems at 51.3% (was 50.6% at 100% reporting at election night)

FWIW, not much happened in CA-10 so far, TJ Cox looks more and more like a dreadful candidate in CA-21, the next LA dump will be interesting for CA-25 and CA-39, CA-45 and look significantly better compared to election night, while CA-48 looks significantly worse.

[Gass3268]

Everyone's favorite thing in the world! Virginia turnout reports!

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1006545599859183617

[GeorgiaModerate]

Everyone's favorite thing in the world! Virginia turnout reports!

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1006545599859183617

But is it raining in NoVA?

[ON Progressive]

Everyone's favorite thing in the world! Virginia turnout reports!

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1006545599859183617

But is it raining in NoVA?

It is not raining in NoVA.

[heatcharger]

Hearing from multiple friends that Dem voters in VA-8 and VA-11 are showing up even though there’s no Democratic ballot in those districts, so they took a Republican one. Many people are going to the Caps parade today. Most importantly, it’s a beautiful sunny day in NoVA.

Stewart is finished.

[Gass3268]

Shocking News! jk Very little Republican turnout in Alexandria:

https://twitter.com/amaxsmith/status/1006551853222563840

[LimoLiberal]

Hearing from multiple friends that Dem voters in VA-8 and VA-11 are showing up even though there’s no Democratic ballot in those districts, so they took a Republican one. Many people are going to the Caps parade today. Most importantly, it’s a beautiful sunny day in NoVA.

Stewart is finished.

There's a democratic ballot in Alexandria and Arlington for the county board and mayoral elections, respectively.

[Oryxslayer]

So the only real noteworthy races tonight are:

-WI specials
-ME-2, -Gov
-VA-Sen (R)

Right? Everything else seems fairly uneventful; I doubt NV-Gov (D) and NV-4 are all that interesting given how machine-heavy Nevada Democratic politics are.

SC-01 as well.

[YE]

So the only real noteworthy races tonight are:

-WI specials
-ME-2, -Gov
-VA-Sen (R)

Right? Everything else seems fairly uneventful; I doubt NV-Gov (D) and NV-4 are all that interesting given how machine-heavy Nevada Democratic politics are.

NV-GOV on the D side could be pretty close even though I wouldn't be shocked Sisolak wins by a solid margin. Also NV-02 could be interesting on the D side even though the race is almost Safe R. I expect Hosford to win on NV-04 D side though I'd love to be wrong.

[Gass3268]

Cool article from the LA Times (w/ maps!) on Orange County

[Mr. Reactionary]

Just voted Freitas. I have now voted for all 3 Republican candidates running for something.