2011 State Elections in Germany

[Boris]

Doesn't the NPD want to, like, deport or kill everyone of non-white and Jewish descent (so no Aziz Ansari or Seth Rogen)? And they want to restrict alcohol consumption in public places? Where's the appeal in that?

I got:

1) The Left
2) SPD
3) FDP
4) Green
5) CDU
6) NPD

[Middle-aged Europe]

Doesn't the NPD want to, like, deport or kill everyone of non-white and Jewish descent (so no Aziz Ansari or Seth Rogen)?

Not an state-level issue though.

[Tender Branson]

2 more polls for Berlin today:

Infratest dimap

30.0% SPD
22.0% Greens
22.0% CDU
11.0% Left
  4.5% Pirate Party
  3.0% FDP
  7.5% Others

Emnid

33% SPD
24% CDU
19% Greens
11% Left
  5% FDP
  4% Pirate Party
  4% Others

[Franzl]

I really do hope the Pirates get into the Senate. It would certainly satisfy my primary reason for paying attention to Berlin: amusement.

[Tender Branson]

ZOMG ! New Bavaria poll by Forsa:

41%  [-2.4] CSU
21% [+2.4] SPD
16% [+6.6] Greens
10%  [-0.2] Freie Wähler
  4%  [-0.3] Left
  3%  [-5.0] FDP
  5%  [-1.1] Others

Because the FDP is below the 5% threshold, a SPD-Greens-FW coalition would beat the CSU 47-41. The only question is: Would the FW enter such a coalition ? I think the FW are a bunch of conservative-minded people.

But I guess this must be the first time that a SPD-candidate is ahead of the CSU governor/candidate in Bavaria !

Direct vote for Governor:

42% Christian Ude (SPD)
39% Horst Seehofer (CSU)

http://www.presseportal.de/pm/6329/2104143/stern-umfrage-ude-liegt-in-bayern-vor-seehofer-csu-muss-um-macht-bangen

[Tender Branson]

Nonetheless, the Süddeutsche reports that the FW indeed kind of likes Ude and is more likely to back him in 2013, rather than allow a continued CSU government:

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/bayern/freie-waehler-ueber-christian-ude-lieber-ein-kommunalpolitiker-als-ein-csuler-1.1133076

[Franzl]

ZOMG ! New Bavaria poll by Forsa:

41%  [-2.4] CSU
21% [+2.4] SPD
16% [+6.6] Greens
10%  [-0.2] Freie Wähler
  4%  [-0.3] Left
  3%  [-5.0] FDP
  5%  [-1.1] Others

Because the FDP is below the 5% threshold, a SPD-Greens-FW coalition would beat the CSU 47-41. The only question is: Would the FW enter such a coalition ? I think the FW are a bunch of conservative-minded people.

But I guess this must be the first time that a SPD-candidate is ahead of the CSU governor/candidate in Bavaria !

Direct vote for Governor:

42% Christian Ude (SPD)
39% Horst Seehofer (CSU)

http://www.presseportal.de/pm/6329/2104143/stern-umfrage-ude-liegt-in-bayern-vor-seehofer-csu-muss-um-macht-bangen

Why exactly does this have to happen precisely when I move to Bavaria?

[Tender Branson]

I had the Greens first, weighed and unweighed. Still a tad undecided whom to vote for though. At this point it'll look like this...


State house direct candidate: Greens

State house party list: Pirate Party or Greens

Borough assembly party list: Greens


The second one depends on whether the Pirates are polled between 4% and 6% prior to election day and whether I'm still pissed at the Greens for running such a sh**tty campaign.

I`d probably vote Pirate in Berlin and SPD in M-V.

[republicanism]

I really do hope the Pirates get into the Senate. It would certainly satisfy my primary reason for paying attention to Berlin: amusement.

For God's sake no!

The media just ended their "Woohoo, the Greens are the coolest party in the world!"-bullsh**t, I don't need it replaced by a "Hey, look at this new funny little party in Berlin!"-bullsh**t.

[Franzl]

I really do hope the Pirates get into the Senate. It would certainly satisfy my primary reason for paying attention to Berlin: amusement.

For God's sake no!

The media just ended their "Woohoo, the Greens are the coolest party in the world!"-bullsh**t, I don't need it replaced by a "Hey, look at this new funny little party in Berlin!"-bullsh**t.

I'd very much enjoy watching red-red attempt to get the Pirates on board for governing

[republicanism]

I'd very much enjoy watching red-red attempt to get the Pirates on board for governing

In that case, Wowereit would do Red-Green without hesitation anyway.

[BenNebbich]

i would like a pirate - green - fdp coalition.

[republicanism]

i would like a pirate - green - fdp coalition.

The wet dream of rich urban kids?

;-)

[BenNebbich]

I'm no kid and live in the countryside, so....

[Franzl]

I'm no kid and live in the countryside, so....

Landshut, wasn't it? I seem to remember that being one of the reasons for your opposition to atomic energy

I'll be a voter in Holzkirchen starting next month.  Grüß Gott!

[Hans-im-Glück]

ZOMG ! New Bavaria poll by Forsa:

41%  [-2.4] CSU
21% [+2.4] SPD
16% [+6.6] Greens
10%  [-0.2] Freie Wähler
  4%  [-0.3] Left
  3%  [-5.0] FDP
  5%  [-1.1] Others

Because the FDP is below the 5% threshold, a SPD-Greens-FW coalition would beat the CSU 47-41. The only question is: Would the FW enter such a coalition ? I think the FW are a bunch of conservative-minded people.

But I guess this must be the first time that a SPD-candidate is ahead of the CSU governor/candidate in Bavaria !

Direct vote for Governor:

42% Christian Ude (SPD)
39% Horst Seehofer (CSU)

http://www.presseportal.de/pm/6329/2104143/stern-umfrage-ude-liegt-in-bayern-vor-seehofer-csu-muss-um-macht-bangen

What I said before. Ude is very popular in Bavaria and with him the SPD have a chance together with the Greens and the Free Voters to beat the CSU.

The Free voters are mainly conservative people, but in average not so conservative than the CSU and they are very very pissed by the CSU.

[BenNebbich]

I'm no kid and live in the countryside, so....

Landshut, wasn't it? I seem to remember that being one of the reasons for your opposition to atomic energy

I'll be a voter in Holzkirchen starting next month.  Grüß Gott!

right - the historic capital of bavaria.

don't worry about the csu; the spd - green - fw coalition will fall apart before election day about central issues like munich airport and the railway tunnel in munich.

BenNebbich

[Tender Branson]

New Niedersachsen federal elections poll by Infratest dimap:



Change compared with 2009 federal elections in Niedersachsen:

+3 CDU
+5 SPD
+6 Greens
 -5 Left
 -8 FDP
 -1 Others

[ZuWo]

New Niedersachsen federal elections poll by Infratest dimap:



Change compared with 2009 federal elections in Niedersachsen:

+3 CDU
+5 SPD
+6 Greens
 -5 Left
 -8 FDP
 -1 Others

Surprisingly good numbers for the CDU. Of course, they benefit from the decline of the FDP but since the national trend doesn't appear favour the CDU I wouldn't have thought that they could actually increase their voter share.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Berlin poll from Forsa

SPD 32%
CDU 21%
Greens 19%
Left 11%
Pirates 5%
FDP 4%

Majority for SPD/CDU or SPD/Greens. No majority for SPD/Left or CDU/Greens.

That is if the Pirates make it past 5%. In a four-party parliament SPD/Left could have a majority as well.

[Tender Branson]

Well, time for my Mecklenburg-Vorpommern prediction:

38% SPD
28% CDU
15% Left
  7% Greens
  4% FDP
  4% NPD
  4% Others

SPD-Greens and SPD-Left would be possible and of course SPD-CDU.

[minionofmidas]

Not all of MVP votes tomorrow. Rügen West doesn't.

[Tender Branson]

Not all of MVP votes tomorrow. Rügen West doesn't.

How so ?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Not all of MVP votes tomorrow. Rügen West doesn't.

How so ?

Postponed after the death of a candidate.

Also happened in Dresden during the 2005 federal elections, I think.

[Tender Branson]

How big is Rügen West as a percentage of MV ?