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Yeah I would be an Alliance voter in Northern Ireland and for the idea that there's any circumstances whatsoever in which I'd vote Sinn Fein....LOL!

The reality is that if you were in Northern Ireland you'd be a TUV voter given that George Searight is sadly no longer available.

I would never vote for a pro-Brexit party.

The intersection of the Venn diagram between the sets "pro-Brexit" and "rabidly anti-Catholic" is an empty set. You have to go with one or the other.

You mean pro-Remain/EU. Pro-Leave/Brexit and anti-Catholic is the default unionist position.

My bad.

With social trust seeming to be at a low in recent years, I wonder how much of that might be warped by more extremely vocal low trust people getting a social media microphone vs more people going from high trust to low trust. I feel like the low trust crowd might’ve gotten louder and more entrenched but not necessarily larger.

The background trend is higher trust to lower trust, but it'd be difficult to measure how eligible voters are shifting within the electorate without longitudinal studies on social trust. Wouldn't surprise me if both the lowest and highest social trust crowd are especially vocal online.

James has incumbency and presidential turnout this time, making him favored.

Andy Levin really should have ran here in 2022. He probably would have won.

AIPAC went hard against Levin in 2022 (over 600,000). It probably would neutralize his incumbency.

Has a Republican ever won NE2 by more than he won the state as a whole?

Historically, the GOP did better in NE-02 than statewide in the 1982, 1990, and 1998 Gubernatorial elections. In 1990 they won NE-02 while losing the state and in 1998 won NE-02 by more than the statewide margin. In the 1996 Senate race it could also be the case.

Nay

I thought you were worried about a President wielding dictatorial power.

There appears to be an error in the AP/NYT count for Maverick County in TX-23. They have Gonzalez up 115-0. 

Now they've changed it to a 1-0 Gonzalez lead with only 1% of that vote reporting.

With just a 600 vote difference this still feels too close to call.

Hertel wins 53%

This is like one of those Russian elections in which your choices are either Putin or some decrepit, on-the-take member of the Communist Party.

So it’s Joe “Yeltsin” Biden vs Donald “Zyuganov” Trump vs. Robert “Lebed” Kennedy?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Russian_presidential_election?wprov=sfti1#Results

This is good news for Biden then, Russian electoral fraud notwithstanding.

[NYT Op-Ed] I’ve Seen How the Biden-Trump Rematch Ends, and It’s Pretty Scary

An elderly president isn’t sure whether he should run for a second term. His approval ratings are low, and there are concerns about his health. His advisers, adamant that he is the only bulwark against a formidable opponent, insist that his candidacy is crucial for the survival of democracy. If he does not run, they say, dictatorship will prevail. Despite his reservations, the president agrees. He pledges to defeat his opponent and protect his country’s future.

This isn’t America today; it’s Russia in 1996. That aged president is not Joe Biden but Boris Yeltsin. His fearsome rival is not Donald Trump but the Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov. As I watch the American presidential campaign unfold, I’ve been constantly reminded of their contest. For all the differences between them, I can’t shake a sense of déjà vu.

Gonzales’s race is interesting geographically. There’s not one area where either candidate is getting lopsided margins. It’s pretty even across the board.

Hilarious Person