Can Hillary Clinton run in 2020 if she loses in 2016?

[Mister Mets]

If Hillary Clinton loses the 2016 General Election, but decides that she still wants to be President, how strong a contender would she be? Under what circumstances would her supporters, and the party, think she deserves another shot? Who would run against her?

She would be one of the oldest candidates ever, but not the oldest. In 2020, she would be several months younger than Bob Dole was in 1996.

[Mister Mets]

I don't think either party would re-nominate a general election loser in this day and age.

It's a small sample set.

Carter lost 44 states, but the party nominated his Veep. Mondale lost 49 states, so he couldn't recover from that. Dukakis lost 40 states.

Dole and McCain were as old as they could be as presidential nominees. Gore led in polls in 2004, but opted to be a messenger on environmental issues (which has made him pretty wealthy.) Kerry won a weak field in 2004, when it was determined that a war hero would be a good challenger to Bush. In 2008, a white guy who had been in the Senate for 24 years just didn't fit a message of change, although he considered running. There is some chatter about Romney, mainly due to Christie's scandals and questions about Jeb.

The things that make Hillary a strong candidate in 2016 won't all disappear in 2020. She'll still have an impressive resume. She would likely still be in the position to be the first female President. She'll still have friends in high places among fundraisers and party figures. A credible bid doesn't seem inconceivable.

[Mister Mets]

It seems kind of odd for all the advantages Hillary has in 2016 to disappear in 2020. Obviously some things we'll have changed. Losing a general election would hurt her reputation as an electoral powerhouse. I'd expect a more impressive bench in 2020, as Democrats elected during the Obama administration get more experience. And there'll be slightly less nostalgia for the Clinton years with more newer voters. But with a narrow Gore/ Kerry style loss, a plausible run seems possible.

2016 is Hillary's last chance, just like 2008 was for McCain and 1996 for Dole. Arguably, she is in better position than those two (who got their turn under unfavorable circumstances), but is she's not an incumbent running for reelection, she's done for 2020.

A difference with McCain and Dole is that they were both older than Hillary will be in 2016.

I don't know the exact age at which someone's no longer a presidential contender (75 feels like the cutoff for me) but Hillary will not have reached that in November 2020. At least going by previous nominees.

[Mister Mets]

I think it's possible.

She has a legitimacy claim with the popular vote win, and can benefit from a crowded field where she'll have high name recognition.