Obama leads by 6 in Nevada

[tmthforu94]

Obama - 48
Romney - 42

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/06/obama-up-6-in-nevada.html

Down from 8 in late March.

[Umengus]

red alert for obama...

[krazen1211]

Well, that validates Marist's +2 poll quite well.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

PPP poll. Disregard.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

red alert for obama...

Tell us more about party ID.

[Umengus]

red alert for obama...

Tell us more about party ID.

D +8 in 2008
D +2 now

The party id of this poll is correct, for once...

But there are some problems with internals, like Romney doing only 80% amongst republicans (88 % for mc cain)... Idem for Obama...

[tmthforu94]

Database Entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3220120610108

With Sandoval as VP, the lead is cut to 3. With Paul, it's cut to 4. With him as VP, Romney's numbers with Republicans actually drops though, but he improves with Democrats and Independents. Only 2% of Democrats were undecided, compared to 11% with Republicans. Once those Republicans would return to the fold, I think Sandoval could pull Romney across the finish line in Nevada.

[Minnesota Mike]

I could nitpick the crosstabs, to Republican, to White, but the topline looks about right.

FWIW PPP has a history of leaning Republican in their Nevada polls. In 2008 their last poll had Obama winning by 4 (he won by 12) and their last poll in 2010 had Sharon Angle winning by 1 (Reid won by 6).

[tmthforu94]

I could nitpick the crosstabs, to Republican, to White, but the topline looks about right.

FWIW PPP has a history of leaning Republican in their Nevada polls. In 2008 their last poll had Obama winning by 4 (he won by 12) and their last poll in 2010 had Sharon Angle winning by 1 (Reid won by 6).

So does about everyone - Democrats always seem to underpoll there. It also doesn't help they are more organized than the GOP, so unless Romney's up 4-5 points there on Election Day, I don't expect him to win it.

[Minnesota Mike]

I could nitpick the crosstabs, to Republican, to White, but the topline looks about right.

FWIW PPP has a history of leaning Republican in their Nevada polls. In 2008 their last poll had Obama winning by 4 (he won by 12) and their last poll in 2010 had Sharon Angle winning by 1 (Reid won by 6).

So does about everyone - Democrats always seem to underpoll there. It also doesn't help they are more organized than the GOP, so unless Romney's up 4-5 points there on Election Day, I don't expect him to win it.

The Reid machine, Unions and early voting. With the majority of votes in Nevada being cast over a two week span before election day it gives an organized campaign time to get their voters to the polls.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How powerful could unions possibly be in Nevada? Remember, it is a right-to-scab state.

[Minnesota Mike]

How powerful could unions possibly be in Nevada? Remember, it is a right-to-scab state.

Union membership is greater in Nevada (14.6%) than the nation as a whole (11.8%). 

[argentarius]

I could nitpick the crosstabs, to Republican, to White, but the topline looks about right.

FWIW PPP has a history of leaning Republican in their Nevada polls. In 2008 their last poll had Obama winning by 4 (he won by 12) and their last poll in 2010 had Sharon Angle winning by 1 (Reid won by 6).

Nevada has a history of overpolling republicans. I imagine they've fixed that.

[Dereich]

red alert for obama...

Tell us more about party ID.

D +8 in 2008
D +2 now

The party id of this poll is correct, for once...

But there are some problems with internals, like Romney doing only 80% amongst republicans (88 % for mc cain)... Idem for Obama...

With all the weird Paulite rebellions going on right now in Nevada it wouldn't surprise me if Romney ended up winning less a share of Republicans then McCain did.

[Sbane]

Considering the sampling, I think this poll is about right or perhaps even a little Republican leaning. The hackery from the right continues though.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Considering NV was considered prime-picking for Romney earlier in the year... in fact Romney led Obama in Nevada earlier in the year, the fact that Obama is near 50 and Romney is just past 40 is hardly a'red alert'.

[hopper]

Considering NV was considered prime-picking for Romney earlier in the year... in fact Romney led Obama in Nevada earlier in the year, the fact that Obama is near 50 and Romney is just past 40 is hardly a'red alert'.

Romney ran to the far to the right on Immigration in the Republican Primary and Obama is cashing in on Romney's mistake in NV polling on the immigration issue.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Considering NV was considered prime-picking for Romney earlier in the year... in fact Romney led Obama in Nevada earlier in the year, the fact that Obama is near 50 and Romney is just past 40 is hardly a'red alert'.

Not to mention that the NV-GOP was seized by Paulites and is in pretty much open rebellion against the national party, while the Democratic turnout operation in Nevada is one of the most effective in the country. Romney will have to be leading in multiple polls before it's a warning sign for Obama.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Almost getting to the point where I'm just putting CO and NV in the bank for Obama (in a close election).  If CO and NV have fallen... then OH, FL, NC, and maybe even VA, IA, and WI are long gone, and it's a big Romney victory. 

The growth of the Hispanic vote in these Western states may be too much for Romney to overcome if the election remains close. 

[President von Cat]

Re: Sandoval as a Romney VP pick, would it really happen? Isn't Sandoval pro-choice?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

With Sandoval as VP, the lead is cut to 3.

Since Sandoval happened to be pro-choice (AKA Evil RINO), we can stop talking about this right now.