Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[DC Al Fine]

Great Britain works fine.

[DC Al Fine]

Am I the only one seeing a degree of genius in this whole vote, by putting the vote in 2014 they ensure the government in London will play nice to Scotland, and not attempt to limit the local autonomy. So even if they lose they will have gotten several years of peace from Loondon, and the crisis may be less bad in 2014, so the risk that London will cut inn Scottish autonomy or budgets afterward will be a lot smaller.

It's a win win result. Even if the Yes vote can only muster 40-45% that's still a large minority. The result is increased autonomy for Scotland regardless of the outcome.

Separatism is playing with fire when it comes to autonomy. Quebecois nationalists were very successful playing this game until the Tories figured out how to win majorities without them. Now their appeals fall on deaf ears.

As someone who is sympathetic to the Scots cause, I suggest they make their increased autonomy concessions count.

[DC Al Fine]

Also, I don't think the comparison to Quebec is a good one. Its become a common meme now but the situations are so vastly different.

Indeed, I can actually understand the Quebecois accent

[DC Al Fine]

ICM have it 52-48 no. Yes leads amongst those born in Scotland.

Money & the ethnic vote strikes again

[DC Al Fine]

What will be the future of the SNP in an independent Scotland?

They would attempt to become Fianna Fail Alba (more or less). Whether they'd be successful in that is impossible to tell.

The SNP will sweep all before it in 2016 but without Salmond at the helm (he'll find something else to do) Nicola Sturgeon will lead and become the first FM. It will have a dominant hand in shaping the country. It will probably win in 2021. You're probably right that they will try and be a Scottish 'Fianna Fail'. One party always dominates Scotland and it has shifted from the early 20th Century from Liberal to Unionist to Labour and potentially now to the SNP. If the party holds together it may dominate politics for a generation. The electoral system however might make it the largest party, but the other parties can challenge if they come together.

Labour will suffer in the short term. Lamont will go. The Holyrood wing and the Westminster wing hate each other and will jostle for influence (and seats) in the 2016 election. Might do worse than they did in 2011. After that point, I think they will pick up. However in order to challenge the SNP they might find themselves having to go into some sort of coalition with the Conservatives (think Fine Gael/Labour but reversed in strength) and smaller liberal/green parties. I used to think the SNP would take their place to Labour's right post independence but I think they might sit more socially 'left' initially.

The Liberal Democrats start at such a low point that they will rebrand. Might stumble on for a few elections but given that their vote moved en masse to the SNP in 2011 and probably won't come back, the party might fold.

The Conservatives will get over the result; Ruth Davidson will step aside for Murdo Fraser and position themselves into the biggest cheerleader for the free market and probably become a little more socially conservative. Might actually start to recover.

The Greens will have a good election in 2016 but will remain a hostage to the fortunes of the larger parties.

Tommy Sheridan will be back. We'd see how long he lasts.

Has there been any talk of the electoral system post-independence? Would it essentially be the same as the current Scottish Parliament's elections or something completely different?

[DC Al Fine]

Oh ftr, the two polls done the day before the Quebec referendum both showed the Yes side with a 6 pt lead. In that case, the Yes side barely lost. I think that's a reasonable cutoff IMO. If Yes starts flirting with 5-6% leads, they'll take it.

[DC Al Fine]

Scotland is a much more well defined and homogeneous nation than most European nations. The old highland/lowland dividing line is virtually obsolete as the Gaeliec culture has in reality died out outside of the Western Isles (highland (pseudo-)culture has of course on a symbolic level spread to all of Scotland in the form of kilts, bagpipes and tartans etc.).

Uh-oh, sounds like someone needs to read up on his Eric Hobsbawn!

I understand your points and they're well-taken, but ultimately I think any areas of Scotland that genuinely would prefer to stay in the UK by large margins should be allowed to if they make their wishes clear. There's something disturbing to me about saying, well they have to leave the UK no matter what their wishes because that's the collective will of ~the nation~. It sounds very early 20th century to me.

So you suggest that Scotland should look like a Swiss Cheese with every household deciding whether they want to be part of UK or Scotland, in fact that does seem a little unfair, what about households, where people vote for two different sides, I think we should split them or make them co-domains of Scotland and UK. Clearly that would be the anti-nationalist solution. In fact I think we should extent this to the general vote, with households voting for one party, getting their candidate as PM, while household voting for the other party getting their candidate as PM.

Not ripping on you ingemann, but this reminds me of some Parti Quebecois politicians who think that 50%+1 is an acceptable threshold for independence, but THE ISLAND OF MONTREAL IS PART OF QUEBEC AND I DON'T CARE IF 80% OF THEM VOTED NO!!!!!!