Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Otzma aren't part of this agreement yet. Instead they indeed signed an agreement with Noam, a party running on frothing-in-the-mouth homophobia and incitement against LGBTQs. I'm fine with this- all the truly evil people in one party.

But it's also true that both Bennet and Shaked said they want Otzma in their bloc. This shows that the work Itamar Ben Gvir and Benjamin Netanyahu have done in the last election bore fruits- nazism has been normalized in Israel. Normal mainstream politicians "disagree" with it, but they're ready to make alliances with it. Kahanists who praise mass-murderers and wish to instate their own version of the Nurenberg Laws are legitimate political partners. I grieve for my country, because we officially forgot the holocaust.

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two tiny parties opposed by most Israelis competing in free and fair elections within a healthy, democratic nation state on the other hand.

My problem is not with the fact that they're able to compete. My problem is that where once Likud MK Michael Eitan compared their platform to the Nurenberg Laws- which is factually true, the Kahanist doctrine seems like it was copied from these laws- and the entire Knesset boycotted their speech, now half the politicians legitimize them as a political force. Obviously they haven't come close to the horror of the holocaust, but their platform is very much a reason to be worried and the fact that it's been quickly legitimized is a huge problem. We should learn from history, and right now we're doing the opposite.

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The far right alliance between the New Right and the Jewish Home is now official, but it doesn't include the even-farther-far-right Otzmah faction. Amazingly, Likud is throwing a fit about this and claims that without the support of ethnic cleansing supporters there is a existential threat to the right in the elections. So that's fun.

The UR (United Right- we shall hereby have a new abbreviation) suggested including Otzma representatives in reserved spots in Likud. Likud's response? No, because our limit of reserved spots was reached with the union with Kulanu. "See, we'd love to put a Kahanist or two in our list, but we don't have any place left"...

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I have a question about something that's so small and insignificant that the Israeli press hasn't bothered to talk about it in English (which is saying something because they usually translate everything), nevertheless, as a politics nerd I am interested and hopefully some Israeli here can answer for me:

Eli Ben-Dahan and his Ahi party, who are they allied with no, if anyone? Are they part of Likud still? Are they part of the Jewish Home? Are they part of Otzma?

Ahi was just a vehicle for Ben Dahan to be put in the Likud list as part of the grand URWP deal- he's otherwise part of the JH list, so he'll be placed in the UR list (probably in the 13th place if I had to guess).

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Likud Minister Tzahi Hanegbi (note: considered a relative moderate), answering a question about the right embracing the Kahanists: "we prefer the far-right a million times over the left's values".

When most of the country is gradually starting to honestly believe that murder-supporting Kahanists are better than you...

In other news, in responde to MK Yoaz Hendel (Kahol Lavan) condemning settlers who threw stones on IDF soldiers and saying that all stone throwers should be treated roughly, Transportation Minister and National Union leader Bezalel Smotrich tweeted that "I do care if the attackers are Jewish or Arab. There's no equation between brothers and enemies... I treat my brothers differently even if they're hardcore criminals." So he's admitting plainly that he's going down a segregrationist route, and marks an entire race as "the enemy". This follows the statement by Education Minister and Jewish Home leader Rafi Peretz that when the territories will be annexed, the Palestinians won't have a right to vote.

They made it subtle a few years ago, accusing us of overreacting and misinterpreting. Now they're making it plain.

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This day in "Israel is getting crazier every day":
1. The Kahanist party Otzma, which demonizes the Arab and LGBTQ Israelis every single day, has requested the election committee to ban Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid from running because of his "demonization and racism" towards the ultra-orthodox population. Yes, the people who praise mass-murderer Baruch Goldstein accuse Lapid of racism.
2. Yigal Amir, the murderer of Yitzhak Rabin, has been contacting far-right figures from his prison cell about founding a new party aimed at releasing him from prison and, of course, taking the media away from "the left". He contacted a known far-right rapper who strongly refused him, for example, but the fact that the PM's murderer is trying to influence the political map from prison is by itself horrifying. As a side note, the basis for the movement to release him is a group of a few hundred Russian Israelis. It seems to me like on every issue, Russian Israeli activists are always somehow at the most extreme, racist and homophobic side. It makes me feel shame and disgust.

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Some good news: the IDF has expanded its acceptance and support towards transgender soldiers. Before that, the support to trans soldiers included hormonal pills, but now it has been expanded to even before conscription, including: addressing conscripted soldiers with their preferred gender pronouns and their new names, educating doctors in conscription offices on the issue, a conversation with a non-commissioned officer who explains their rights to them before conscription, giving them uniforms meant for their actual gender and not the one they were born to.

In the day of conscription, the new transgender recruit will meet their commander to tell them which gender's living rooms and showers they'll prefer; however, if the soldier for example is a trans woman and was born a man, they'll be given a separate room and separate shower times to be considerate both for them and for the other soldiers (so the transphobic ones). The current situation is still not 100% perfect and there are many homophobic and transphobic incidents, but apparently many officials of NATO armies consult with Israeli officers on integrating trans soldiers, so this is definitely a point of pride in being an Israeli, one that is hard to find with our current politics. Learn from that, Trump.

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Got told about the alliance/vote sharing agreement by my relatives there, now everyone in my family is united behind the Joint List.

Question is if Labor-Gesher and the Dem- Union could do the same and form an alliance of some sort

If you go back a few pages, (we discussed such a scenario) I think you will see that the four way left alliance has little chance of occuring. Maybe a surplus vote deal like what B&W and Lieberman have, (checking wiki it says such a thing already exists) but I think a full alliance is dead.

No, that's different. He means a vote-sharing alliance like the one Yisrael Beiteinu and KL, which is mostly a formality. An alliance such as that is possible and necessary.

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The Democratic Camp released a comprehensive and detailed "Green New Deal" plan, which includes among other things:
* Substantially reducing the number of cares on the roads (tax incentives to workers who decide to give up on a car from work; blocking the hearts of the big cities to only allow bicycles and public transportation; road tolls to cars with less than 3 passengers; a strong public transportation investment)
* Gradually moving to 100% renewable (especially solar) energy in 2050, taxes on carbon emissions and other pollutants, closing polluting factories owned by the government if it's economically workable, becoming a leading global force for environmental protection.
* Banning the import of internal combustion cars gradually until 2025 and working towards more and more electric cars.
* Changing consumption habits- reducing the use of plastic by gradually banning disposable dishes, reducing the power of the meat industry by banning live delivieries of animals and encouraging less consumption of meat; marking foodstuffs with their carbon footprints.

Overall, a very solid plan which, according to the party, will generate much more profit than it costs, and more importantly will solve the crisis which will make Israel unliveable- not just global warming, but also the fact that with the current population growth and car ownership rates, without massive changes Israel will become a hell full of smoke and traffic jams by 2050. My vote is definitely going for them by now.

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By the way, the chances of a 61 Likud-religious government are real, and definitely not comparable to the non-existent chance of a leftist win. They're not that far away from that. So I'd not be too confident before all the results are in.

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The Joint List, the Democratic Camp, Labour-Gesher and Kahol Lavan aren't considered "center left-arabs" because they represent the left, are allies or even not because they're all going to suggest Gantz. It's purely because they're not going to suggest Bibi, and as such are part of the bloc opposing him. That's why Lieberman is his own faction, while the ones certain to suggest Bibi- Likud, Yamina, haredim and Otzma- are thr right-religious bloc.

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I still predict Otzma won't pass the threshold in the end of the day. Remember, before the election Zehut were at 5-7 seats. However, I will say this- if Netanyahu forms a government with Otzma, I will not support it, I will not consider it my government, and I will not defend it on anything. It'll be illegitimate to me.

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Gotta be honest, as instinctively pro-Israel as I am the fact that this means Palestinians living around the settlements can’t vote but the settlers can doesn’t sit right with me. Imo if Israel is serious about convincing people they aren’t planning to annex the entirety of the West Bank they shouldn’t let settlers vote.

I understand that concern, but we're not just going to deprive Israeli citizens who live in a land where Israeli policy has very direct impact of their right to vote. The Palestinians in that region aren't Israeli citizens. It's obviously not a good situation- the only way to solve it is a two state solution where the major settlement blocs go to Israel in exchange for different land.

Regarding the Golan Heights, I think that most of the original inhabitants are Druze with a status of stateless persons. A majority of Druze rejects to become Israeli and remains loyal to the Syrian state.

As expected, a contorted painting of the complexity of the Golan Heights only meant to make Israel seem evil. The only reason the Druze in there "remain loyal to the Syrian state" is that they fear retribution from its murderous leadership- if that means loyalty to you, then I have a kind and benevolent leader (who gasses his own people) to sell you. Anyway, since the civil war broke out the percentage of Druze people seeking citizenship jumped substantially, and it seems like we're going towards normalization.

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I’ll publish my prediction on Monday. But I feel Bibi might pull 61 narrow right after all

Agreed. It's a tight affair.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I’ll publish my prediction on Monday. But I feel Bibi might pull 61 narrow right after all

Agreed. It's a tight affair.

what would happen with 60-60?

Bibi can't form his preferred government. He needs 61 without Lieberman.

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I guess I'll give my prediction too, even though it might change by Tuesday and it means practically nothing in our volatile system:

Likud 36
Blue and White 33
Joint List 11
Shas 8
UTJ 8
Yisrael Beiteinu 7
Yamina 7
Democratic Camp 6
Labor 4
Otzma 0

Religious-right 59
Center-left 54
Lieberman 7

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I also have a sneaking suspicion that Blue and White is waiting until tomorrow night to announce that Lapid has decided to cancel the rotation agreement with Gantz, leaving the more broadly popular Gantz as the party's sole candidate for prime minister. The Channel 13 poll yesterday gave 3 more mandates to Blue and White if Lapid nixed the rotation. That would probably be a major gamechanger. And with victory so, so close, it would be just plain weird for Lapid to die on that hill.

The question is in whose expense, though. If such a decision would cause Labour-Gesher or the Democratic Camp to fall below the threshold, it'd guarantee 61 for Bibi.

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You can tell from their campaign that both Labour and the Democratic Camp are are doing badly in the polls. both are now warning against voting for Blue and White, since they might fail to make it and give Bibi a majority.

They’re doing badly because they campaigned badly. Labour ran for an absurd socialist platform and Sephardi “look”, problem is that bar for hipsters in Tel Aviv cares for this. The democratic camp ran as of they’re the Democratic Party. Green new deal and other gimmicks. Problem is there aren’t that many people in Israel who really like the west wing, and they lost their left to the joint list

Yeah their campaigns were just bad, especially the Democratic Camp's. I won't say the Green New Deal plan is the bad part- it was a really decent plan that Israelis SHOULD care about if we want a normal country and not a huge traffic jam, but the rest... eh. Attacking Orly Levy was a very bad look that turned off a lot of people, and generally were never inspiring or interesting. Labour did run a good campaign for socialists, but it's just too small a segement and for the rest of the left there was really 0 reason for them to run alone.

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You can tell from their campaign that both Labour and the Democratic Camp are are doing badly in the polls. both are now warning against voting for Blue and White, since they might fail to make it and give Bibi a majority.

They’re doing badly because they campaigned badly. Labour ran for an absurd socialist platform and Sephardi “look”, problem is that bar for hipsters in Tel Aviv cares for this. The democratic camp ran as of they’re the Democratic Party. Green new deal and other gimmicks. Problem is there aren’t that many people in Israel who really like the west wing, and they lost their left to the joint list

Yeah their campaigns were just bad, especially the Democratic Camp's. I won't say the Green New Deal plan is the bad part- it was a really decent plan that Israelis SHOULD care about if we want a normal country and not a huge traffic jam, but the rest... eh. Attacking Orly Levy was a very bad look that turned off a lot of people, and generally were never inspiring or interesting. Labour did run a good campaign for socialists, but it's just too small a segement and for the rest of the left there was really 0 reason for them to run alone.

I wasn’t talking about content but rather the image. We don’t go to the polls here on environmental issues. Attacking Levy was actually good, she’s hardly popular with Left voters who aren’t young woke unbearable Labour voting students

Hm, the feeling I got from people about their campaigns against Levy and Gantz was that it just felt aggressive and stupid. I don't think it bought them any voters, and it probably lost a few.

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Democratic Camp 94%
Labour-Gesher 85%
Joint List 83%

No surprises, but it's a terrible tool like Hnv1 said.

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Limped through that one with the help of some very interesting Google Translate results — Democratic Camp "opposes the granting of immunity to the USSR and the legal system."

Lol that's woke

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Here is a short election compass tool from Channel 12:

https://electionsvote.mako.co.il

I had

79% Democratic Camp
76% Joint List (for whom I am taking my little k8ds to volunteer tomorrow morning)
67% Labor-Gesher

You're voting for the Joint List?

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If I don’t support Likud, Shas, UTJ, etc does it mean mean that I am anti semitic right?

Obviously. The well-known antisemitic axis of Parrotguy-Walmart_shopper-Hnv1 is here to support you, though.

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Current prediction- Labour-Gesher passing the threshold, and the Democratic Camp in votes. Their scare campaign seems to be working, while the Democratic Camp isn't perceived to be in danger. I feel like they could fall to 4-5 seats, possibly even below the threshold.

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Exit polls are out in just over an hour and I have absolutely no clue what is going to happen. I have no feel for things at all.

I have been disappointed by enough Israeli election nights now, thinking "oh this time he really is going to lose to (insert new excitable Ashkenazi centrist here)" and then Netanyahu wins anyway, so best not get your Hopes up. He always wins.

Those are my thoughts. I'll believe Bibi loses when I see it. Although I don't think he'll avoid jail no matter whst happens tonight, so his days are numbered.

You won't see it.

You need to calm down

(But seriously, we're trying to have a serious discussion here, not bedwetting. Bibi has a good chance to win but you shouldn't derail the thread about that.)