Canadian by-elections, 2012

[2952-0-0]

At least Dalton spoke publicly tonight about the need to work with other parties. Hudak hasn't been seen in public all night, but he did issue a written statement blaming the unions for concentrating their resources into one riding. What a sore loser. If I were a PC caucus member I'll be preparing to stage a coup based on that statement alone.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Genuinely impressive result.

[lilTommy]

So Forum wasn't that far off then; it ended up being a battle (In KW) of the opposition with NDP 39%, PC 31% and OLP 24%... love to see a poll results map

[Holmes]

With the Tories not able to increase their vote shares at all in Kitchener-Waterloo and Vaughan, and gouverning Liberals losing support in a riding they were "supposed" to win, maybe this is the beginning of a turning point. Just maybe the stars are starting to align for Horwath. Don't mean to sound like J.J. or Sam, but there you have it.

Hash, I should warn you I am splooging on the keyboard right now

Well, Fife *is* a bit of a cutie, though that sounds like an overreaction;)

Gross.

[Poirot]

As Denis Coderre said he will announce on November 9 his choice (he will either run for Liberal leadership or Montreal mayorship), La Presse is reporting than NDP is already searching a star candidate to run in Bourassa in the resulting by-election. NDP seems to be sure than he will choose the mayorship.

Funny story. A man, a former federal Liberal candidate, wrote on twitter that he was interested in meeting Mulcair because he was interested in running in Bourassa for the NDP. He left his number. He thought he was sending a private message to Mulcair. Oops. I doubt he will be the one chosen.

[MaxQue]

As Denis Coderre said he will announce on November 9 his choice (he will either run for Liberal leadership or Montreal mayorship), La Presse is reporting than NDP is already searching a star candidate to run in Bourassa in the resulting by-election. NDP seems to be sure than he will choose the mayorship.

Funny story. A man, a former federal Liberal candidate, wrote on twitter that he was interested in meeting Mulcair because he was interested in running in Bourassa for the NDP. He left his number. He thought he was sending a private message to Mulcair. Oops. I doubt he will be the one chosen.

More than a former liberal, but a former President of the Quebec section of Liberal Party of Canada.

[Hatman 🍁]

Old news by now, but I made a map of the Toronto-Danforth by-election

[Smid]

Great work! To which neighbourhoods do those areas of support correspond? I assume the areas of support are unsurprising, but is that an accurate assumption to make?

[Hatman 🍁]

From my site:

[Kevinstat]

Has the (Canadian) Supreme Court ruled on the appeal in Etobicoke Centre yet?  Is Ted Opitz still serving as an MP?  That would be an interesting by-election.

[MaxQue]

No ruling yet, Opitz is still MP.

[lilTommy]

Not sure where to place this... but after the By-elections looks like polls are even worse for the Liberals...

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/09/17/ndp-support-soars-while-liberals-plummets-poll?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=recommend-button&utm_campaign=NDP+support+soars+while+Liberals%27+plummets%3A+Poll

NDP 36% PC 35% OLP 22% ...Based on these figures, Forum projects a seat count of PCs, 48; Liberals, 30; and NDP, 29"... The NDP loses out since the vote is badly distributed, i suspect heavily centred in TO, other cities (Hamilton, Windsor, London, Ottawa) and the north, possibly seats in SWON too.

[lilTommy]

Victoria By-election...
The NDP have three running for the nomination:
- Charley Beresford (former School Board trustee, two time provincial candidate, director of the Columbia institute)
- Murray Rankin (Lawyer, environmental law expert, some big green credential backers)
- Elizabeth Cull (former deputy premier and finance minister, business owner, panelist)

Liberals:
- Paul Summerville (fmr NDP candidate in St. Paul in 06, economist)

Greens:
- have a nomination race going on, biggest name is Donald Galloway (Director of law school a UVic)

Tories:
- i haven't read anything from them.

Still NDP win i think... but depends on who the NDP nominates; some say Rankin is the Green NDP vote, Cull is the more old guard (but much needed cabinet experience); i'd like to see a woman win since the field is pretty deep both female candidates have elected experience but (not knowing much about Cull) on paper she seems like the better choice.
Any BC'ers input here?

[Hatman 🍁]

Summerville losing would make me feel nice inside.

[adma]

NDP 36% PC 35% OLP 22% ...Based on these figures, Forum projects a seat count of PCs, 48; Liberals, 30; and NDP, 29"... The NDP loses out since the vote is badly distributed, i suspect heavily centred in TO, other cities (Hamilton, Windsor, London, Ottawa) and the north, possibly seats in SWON too.

I put little credence on that Forum projected seat count, since it likely hinges upon an awkward "uniform swing" model--which, if based upon 2011 results, would mean that Kitchener-Waterloo would be nowhere near that magic 29.  (Remember that the apparent NDP "bad distribution" is the result of their concentrating their past electoral resources in a handful of "winnable" seats--which may well top out at 29 or so.)

My suspicion is that if the NDP's in that polling stratosphere, a lot more seats are drawn into their orbit than it may appear--and the Liberals are flirting with losing official party status...

[lilTommy]

It would have been much better for Forum to have regional breakdowns, that would give us some idea of what they meant by poor distribution.
If this becomes a persistent trend (like it is federally, strong NDP numbers, tied or very close to the NDP) i suspect your right adma, the NDP would indeed expand their resources beyond their primary targets and target ridings that would have been considered best-case wins, like Kitchener-Waterloo.

In the end its bad news all around for the Liberals, but also brings to debate the issue of if Dalton resigned would that change liberal fortunes?

[DL]

I would be willing to bet my life savings that if the ONDP gets 36% of the vote in the next Ontario election and the Liberals get reduced to 22% - the NDP will have MORE seats than the Liberals wayyyy more.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The obvious thing to mention, really, would be 1990.

[lilTommy]

The obvious thing to mention, really, would be 1990.

1990 results: NDP 37.6%, OLP 32.4%, PC 23.5% ... look familiar eh (except switch the OLP and PCs)... so we know the NDP can form majority governments with under 40% as long as the two other parties can sustain their support above 20%

[adma]

I would be willing to bet my life savings that if the ONDP gets 36% of the vote in the next Ontario election and the Liberals get reduced to 22% - the NDP will have MORE seats than the Liberals wayyyy more.

And Dalton's left looking like this

[canadian1]

I would be willing to bet my life savings that if the ONDP gets 36% of the vote in the next Ontario election and the Liberals get reduced to 22% - the NDP will have MORE seats than the Liberals wayyyy more.

And Dalton's left looking like this

Clever.

I agree that that seat projection is wildly off the mark. Was there any sort of regional breakdown of those polling numbers? If not, it's almost impossible to believe those seat figures--not that I'm entirely convinced that Forum's popular-vote picture will hold up in a general-election situation.

[trebor204]

The Prime Minister has called 3 by-elections for Nov 26th
 - Victoria
 - Calgary-Centre
  - Durham

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/10/21/pol-november-26-by-elections.html

Meanwhile on Thursday, we will get the decision on the the court challenge on the results of Etobicoke-Centre

[Holmes]

I thought we were supposed to get a decision on that by the end of July or August. Months ago.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP seems to be ignoring Durham or Calgary as they have yet to have nominated candidates in either riding

[Holmes]

NDP candidate in Durham is likely to be Larry O'Connor(former MPP, Brock township mayor), and it's between Dan Meades (poverty activist), Brian Malkinson (former candidate in Calgary North West in the provincial election) and Matthew McMillan (some guy?) in Calgary Centre. Well, we're not winning the latter, but I guess I would support Meades.

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2012/10/more-by-election-candidate-news/