Canadian by-elections, 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't see how the Liberals can spin these results to their advantage. Even in Calgary Centre it can be argued the vast majority of Liberal voters are voting against Crockatt than for anything. The Conservatives can claim to have held onto their seat, but it's humiliating to have to fight for something they take for granted. The NDP are underperforming in all three ridings. So somehow, the Greens can claim victory even though they may not win any seats.

How is the NDP underperforming in Durham?

[Smid]

I think, given the low turnout in CC, it may not so much be PCers voting Liberal because of Crockett, but possibly the Liberal vote remaining (with a slight lift, perhaps?) While anti-Crockett PCers just simply stayed home? If this is the case, even the best result for the Liberals is pretty shabby, and probably the fault of the anti-Alberta comments recently.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Calgary Centre is now all in:

Conservative   Joan Crockatt   10,201   36.9   36.9%
Independent   Antoni Grochowski   141   0.5   0.5%
Liberal   Harvey Locke   9,034   32.7   32.7%
NDP-New Democratic Party   Dan Meades   1,063   3.8   3.8%
Libertarian   Tony Prashad   121   0.4   0.4%
Green Party   Chris Turner   7,090   25.6   25.6%

27,650 of 93,984 registered electors (29.4%)

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

The NDP now leads by 1,248 in Victoria.

[Orion0]

NDP does worse in CC than the greens in Durham.
NDP pulls similar % in Durham as the greens in CC.
NDP much weaker in Victoria than expected, and likely the target of a focused attack come 2015.
All in all it's not positive signs for the NDP, given the rise of the greens.

Liberals a non-entity? I'd say they hit the high water mark in terms of raw vote #s in Calgary, and their showing in Durham and Victoria is particularly poor. I hope that they take the leadership contest seriously, as it's going to take more than a decent hairstyle and shoddy acting skills to win people back it seems.

[trebor204]

CBC calls NDP in Victoria

[Meeker]

How soon do we get to see results by poll?

[trebor204]

How soon do we get to see results by poll?

It will take awhile, normally around a month.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

NDP does worse in CC than the greens in Durham.
NDP pulls similar % in Durham as the greens in CC.
NDP much weaker in Victoria than expected, and likely the target of a focused attack come 2015.
All in all it's not positive signs for the NDP, given the rise of the greens.

Liberals a non-entity? I'd say they hit the high water mark in terms of raw vote #s in Calgary, and their showing in Durham and Victoria is particularly poor. I hope that they take the leadership contest seriously, as it's going to take more than a decent hairstyle and shoddy acting skills to win people back it seems.

If they go with Mr. Trudeau, the NDP will be very thankful come election day.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Final unoffical results from Victoria:

Green Party   Donald Galloway   13,368   34.3   34.3%
Conservative   Dale Gann   5,633   14.4   14.4%
Libertarian   Art Lowe   194   0.5   0.5%
Christian Heritage Party   Philip G. Ney   191   0.5   0.5%
NDP-New Democratic Party   Murray Rankin   14,519   37.2   37.2%
Liberal   Paul Summerville   5,092   13.1   13.1%

Voter turnout: 38,997 of 88,886 registered electors (43.9%)

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

It's late, and I'm tired, so I'm just going to paste my summary thoughts over from Twitter, and then I have to go brief 2 cases for class:

Winner #1: the Tories, for holding on to both ridings, and finishing 3rd in Victoria.
Winner #2: the Green Party, for a close 2nd place in Victoria.
Loser #1: the NDP, for a terrible performance in Calgary Centre, and a much closer than expected margin in Victoria.
Loser #2: the Liberal Party, for not doing better in Calgary Centre and placing behind the Tories in Victoria.
Loser #3: voters who stayed home in Calgary Centre, which was expected to be the hottest race of the night.

[doktorb]

Are they always this interesting

[DC Al Fine]

Man, that would be awesome for the Tories if the Greens won Victoria. 3 credible left of centre parties splitting the vote. *drools*

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not sure if the Greenies doing very well in a by-election in Victoria ought to be seen as entirely surprising.

[Holmes]

By-election and all, but my god, I don't understand why anyone would vote for the Green Party.

Only in BC.

[Hatman 🍁]

How soon do we get to see results by poll?

It will take awhile, normally around a month.

More than that, actually.

[Hatman 🍁]

In terms of vote change, the Tories are last night's biggest losers (down 11%). The Liberals actually went up 3.5%, while the Greens were the biggest winners (obviously) up 13%. NDP down 6%.

[Хahar 🤔]

By-election and all, but my god, I don't understand why anyone would vote for the Green Party.

Only in BC.

And only on Vancouver Island, it seems.

[Hatman 🍁]

By-election and all, but my god, I don't understand why anyone would vote for the Green Party.

Only in BC.

And only on Vancouver Island, it seems.

There are some Green pockets on the mainland as well. Expect the Greens to heavily target Vancouver Centre. Maybe Adrienne Carr will run again (don't forget, she was elected to city council last year). They have done well provincially up on the Sunshine coast as well, but I suspect West Vancouver is too Conservative to let that riding go to the Greens.

[toaster]

Man, that would be awesome for the Tories if the Greens won Victoria. 3 credible left of centre parties splitting the vote. *drools*

The Green Party is not left of centre.

[Hatman 🍁]

Man, that would be awesome for the Tories if the Greens won Victoria. 3 credible left of centre parties splitting the vote. *drools*

The Green Party is not left of centre.

Yeah. I'm guessing that the Green support areas in Victoria will come from the eastern half of the riding, which is the more conservative part.

[Hatman 🍁]

A little birdie (Krago) emailed this to me. I hope he doesn't mind me posting it here:



Kitchener-Waterloo by-election map.

Compare to 2011 results

[Smid]

Can I just say that Krago is awesome, and that it's a great loss that he no longer posts here.

[Hatman 🍁]

Poll by poll results of the Fall by-elections have been posted (a few days ago) on the Elections Canada site: http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep/off/ovr_2012b&document=index&lang=e

Krago has sent me some maps, I will post them later.

[Smid]

Poll by poll results of the Fall by-elections have been posted (a few days ago) on the Elections Canada site: http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep/off/ovr_2012b&document=index&lang=e

Krago has sent me some maps, I will post them later.

Excellent! Really looking forward to seeing those, particularly the Calgary and Victoria ones.