Emerson: UT (McMullin +4), NH (Clinton +8), PA (Clinton +4), MO (Trump +8)

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

It is Emerson, but this is fantastic news for McMullin. This will continue the feedback loop as mentioned.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

It seems that in 538, the favorability towards trump winning Utah is because of the YouGov poll taken from Oct 12-14.
It shows a trump +17 (adjusted +15), and 538 has "weighed" it considerably heavy/high.
Otherwise, Utah would be a toss-up 3-way battle between trump, Clinton and McMullin.

Which is ridiculous. YouGov deliberately lowered McMullin's numbers by not including him in the question or the answer, you had to choose "other" first.

Yeah, it was a BS poll.

I'm loving it!

Nice!

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Junk pollster or not, these polls give McMuffin the free media publicity he needs to to solidify his numbers in Utah.

I am wondering though if he will carry any counties in the Mormon part of southern Idaho.

I'd guarantee that he'll get some counties in Idaho. Madison County for sure (contains Rexburg, home of BYU-Idaho).

My prediction:



Based in part on this map:

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Junk pollster or not, these polls give McMuffin the free media publicity he needs to to solidify his numbers in Utah.

I am wondering though if he will carry any counties in the Mormon part of southern Idaho.

I'd guarantee that he'll get some counties in Idaho. Madison County for sure (contains Rexburg, home of BYU-Idaho).

My prediction:



Based in part on this map:



(Resubmitted because the post got bumped by the poll being added)

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Junk pollster or not, these polls give McMuffin the free media publicity he needs to to solidify his numbers in Utah.

I am wondering though if he will carry any counties in the Mormon part of southern Idaho.

Probably the southeastern edge of Idaho, which is very Mormon. Definitely Madison County, which as previously noted, is where BYU Idaho is.

Side note on Utah, 21 out of 29 Utah counties have vote by mail, and have already been voting since the 13th or so. So if McMullin is getting a lot of votes from vote-by-mail, there's a good chance that he'll get a similar result on Election Day itself.

Couldn't that actually be bad for McMullin? His poll numbers have been rising over the last week, so the early numbers could be worse than the Election Day results.