McCaskill will lose unless Hawley loses the primary or has an Akin moment. Missouri has gone from a state that voted 5 points to the left of the nation in 1992, to voting 22 points to the right of the nation in 2016. In that time frame, it trended republican in every presidential election. In 2016, democrats were soundly defeated in all statewide races as the state decided that the time for downballot Dems had passed. It is clear that in 2018, all that is needed is a competent opponent to take down McCaskill and the state Auditor. The political climate holds no relevance as the state trended republican even in '08.
What? Anyway, Kander came within 3 points of unseating Blunt in 2016, so MO is hardly "gone" for Ds in statewide/Senate races. It's just that McCaskill is a poor cultural fit for her state, if the Dems replaced her with a stronger candidate the race would probably be a Tossup (I mean, even with McCaskill running it is way too close for comfort!). Also, using your logic WV would be Safe R as well, but it obviously isn't.
Missouri voted four points to the nation's right in 2004 and seven points to the nation's right in 2008. That's how Dave defines trending R, so it's the definition I use too. Also, Manchin being an actual moderate in a state that has yet to elect an R over an incumbent D for the Senate is why his race is a Toss-Up. Also notice I rate neither race Safe.
