WeAskAmerica/FOX News: Romney leads in Illinois

[Tender Branson]

37% Romney
31% Santorum
14% Gingrich
  8% Paul

Pollster We Ask America, based in Springfield, IL, contacted the 1,933 likely Republican voters who participated in our survey on Wednesday, accurate to within plus/minus 2.2 percentage points.

http://www.myfoxchicago.com/dpp/news/elections/mitt-romney-leads-rick-santorum-6-points-illinois-primary-election-republican-gop-presidential-candidates-poll-20120315

[Eraserhead]

Ah, so Santorum probably doesn't have a shot at this. Although I seriously doubt Gingrich is going to get 14%. Who are the idiots that are still voting for him after Tuesday?

[Tender Branson]

Paul and Gingrich should drop out now. It's about time.

Paul should endorse his pal Romney and Gingrich should endorse Santorum and they should encourage their delegates to vote for Romney or Santorum at the convention (if this is possible).

What reason is there for Paul to stay in now ? He didn't win a state, and has no chance to get more than 15% anywhere, maybe in SD or MT - in all other remaining states he'll stay at the 10% mark.

Gingrich can only win NC, no other state is anywhere close to voting for Newt.

So: GET THE F**K OUT GUYS ! So that we can have a real 2-man race !

[RI]

FWIW, We Ask America is a pretty terrible pollster.

[Tender Branson]

FWIW, We Ask America is a pretty terrible pollster.

Every pollster had it's problems this year, but the general topline here makes sense.

WAA for example got AZ and MI right, so there's hope for them.

[Mr. Morden]

Paul and Gingrich should drop out now. It's about time.

Paul should endorse his pal Romney and Gingrich should endorse Santorum and they should encourage their delegates to vote for Romney or Santorum at the convention (if this is possible).

No, Gingrich shouldn't endorse Santorum.  That would just allow his pledged delegates to become free agents, with many of them probably going to Romney.  He should suspend his campaign, not endorse anyone else, and hold his delegates in reserve, so that he has leverage, in the event of a brokered convention scenario.

[Tender Branson]

Paul and Gingrich should drop out now. It's about time.

Paul should endorse his pal Romney and Gingrich should endorse Santorum and they should encourage their delegates to vote for Romney or Santorum at the convention (if this is possible).

No, Gingrich shouldn't endorse Santorum.  That would just allow his pledged delegates to become free agents, with many of them probably going to Romney.  He should suspend his campaign, not endorse anyone else, and hold his delegates in reserve, so that he has leverage, in the event of a brokered convention scenario.

Wouldn't this do more harm than good ? Because if Gingrich drops out and endorses Santorum and Santorum goes on to win a few very important states (TX, NC, IN, KY, WV, PA, maybe MD, OR too), then these "free agents" would be more likely to support Santorum than Romney. But if he does not endorse, Santorum might run behind Romney in several of those states and Gingrich's "leverage" at the convention would be about zero, because Romney has the necessary delegates already.

[Tender Branson]

If Gingrich really drops out after IL or LA, and endorses Santorum, maybe he could even convince Sheldon Adelson to write a 50 Mio. $ check for Santorum for the ultimate battles in NC/IN/WV and then later TX and CA. This would badly damage the Romney money machine (unless he writes himself a check for 50 Mio. $).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If Gingrich really drops out after IL or LA, and endorses Santorum, maybe he could even convince Sheldon Adelson to write a 50 Mio. $ check for Santorum for the ultimate battles in NC/IN/WV and then later TX and CA. This would badly damage the Romney money machine (unless he writes himself a check for 50 Mio. $).

Adelson HATES Santorum...

Equally, if these numbers are in fact correct... and they look reasonable, Romney should be worried about Santorum's underpolling in TN, MS and AL.

[Tender Branson]

If Gingrich really drops out after IL or LA, and endorses Santorum, maybe he could even convince Sheldon Adelson to write a 50 Mio. $ check for Santorum for the ultimate battles in NC/IN/WV and then later TX and CA. This would badly damage the Romney money machine (unless he writes himself a check for 50 Mio. $).

Adelson HATES Santorum...

Equally, if these numbers are in fact correct... and they look reasonable, Romney should be worried about Santorum's underpolling in TN, MS and AL.

Maybe he hates Romney more ... ?!

[Mr. Morden]

Paul and Gingrich should drop out now. It's about time.

Paul should endorse his pal Romney and Gingrich should endorse Santorum and they should encourage their delegates to vote for Romney or Santorum at the convention (if this is possible).

No, Gingrich shouldn't endorse Santorum.  That would just allow his pledged delegates to become free agents, with many of them probably going to Romney.  He should suspend his campaign, not endorse anyone else, and hold his delegates in reserve, so that he has leverage, in the event of a brokered convention scenario.

Wouldn't this do more harm than good ? Because if Gingrich drops out and endorses Santorum and Santorum goes on to win a few very important states (TX, NC, IN, KY, WV, PA, maybe MD, OR too), then these "free agents" would be more likely to support Santorum than Romney. But if he does not endorse, Santorum might run behind Romney in several of those states and Gingrich's "leverage" at the convention would be about zero, because Romney has the necessary delegates already.

Gingrich's endorsement isn't going to mean anything.  Whether he endorses are not isn't going to matter wrt the voters of TX, NC, IN, etc.  What matters is whether he's in the race or not.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I really don't understand why Santorum wasted two days campaigning at Puerto Rico (a WTA contest where he had little hope to begin with) instead of barnstorming Illinois.

[Mr. Morden]

I really don't understand why Santorum wasted two days campaigning at Puerto Rico (a WTA contest where he had little hope to begin with) instead of barnstorming Illinois.

It's only WTA if the winner breaks 50%.  Otherwise it's proportional.  (Though I suspect that Romney will break 50%.)

[Eraserhead]

If Gingrich really drops out after IL or LA, and endorses Santorum, maybe he could even convince Sheldon Adelson to write a 50 Mio. $ check for Santorum for the ultimate battles in NC/IN/WV and then later TX and CA. This would badly damage the Romney money machine (unless he writes himself a check for 50 Mio. $).

Adelson HATES Santorum...

Equally, if these numbers are in fact correct... and they look reasonable, Romney should be worried about Santorum's underpolling in TN, MS and AL.

Probably a southern phenomenon.

[Tender Branson]

I really don't understand why Santorum wasted two days campaigning at Puerto Rico (a WTA contest where he had little hope to begin with) instead of barnstorming Illinois.

It's only WTA if the winner breaks 50%.  Otherwise it's proportional.  (Though I suspect that Romney will break 50%.)

Romney got 54% of FL Hispanics, but only 38% among AZ Hispanics.

I guess he ends up winning PR with about 45-50%.

[Torie]

Paul and Gingrich should drop out now. It's about time.

Paul should endorse his pal Romney and Gingrich should endorse Santorum and they should encourage their delegates to vote for Romney or Santorum at the convention (if this is possible

Ah, a double dose of "should" here, a word that I see used more and more in this context around here.
The only problem is that it is being used from someone's perspective other than the candidates themselves. And therein lies the rub.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Looks like Santorum will win easily. If Romney was a half way decent candidate he might be able to hold his support but he simply refuses to get aggressive and passionate.

[J. J.]

I really don't understand why Santorum wasted two days campaigning at Puerto Rico (a WTA contest where he had little hope to begin with) instead of barnstorming Illinois.

It's only WTA if the winner breaks 50%.  Otherwise it's proportional.  (Though I suspect that Romney will break 50%.)

Santorum could be trying to hold Mittens down in PR for that reason.  A loss of 3 delegates is better than a loss of 23 delegates.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If Gingrich really drops out after IL or LA, and endorses Santorum, maybe he could even convince Sheldon Adelson to write a 50 Mio. $ check for Santorum for the ultimate battles in NC/IN/WV and then later TX and CA. This would badly damage the Romney money machine (unless he writes himself a check for 50 Mio. $).

Adelson HATES Santorum...

Equally, if these numbers are in fact correct... and they look reasonable, Romney should be worried about Santorum's underpolling in TN, MS and AL.

Maybe he hates Romney more ... ?!

He donated several million to Gingrich's PAC for the expressed purpose of hurting Rick.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I really don't understand why Santorum wasted two days campaigning at Puerto Rico (a WTA contest where he had little hope to begin with) instead of barnstorming Illinois.

It's only WTA if the winner breaks 50%.  Otherwise it's proportional.  (Though I suspect that Romney will break 50%.)

Romney got 54% of FL Hispanics, but only 38% among AZ Hispanics.

I guess he ends up winning PR with about 45-50%.

How did he do amongst NV Hispanics?

[Torie]

I really don't understand why Santorum wasted two days campaigning at Puerto Rico (a WTA contest where he had little hope to begin with) instead of barnstorming Illinois.

It's only WTA if the winner breaks 50%.  Otherwise it's proportional.  (Though I suspect that Romney will break 50%.)

Romney got 54% of FL Hispanics, but only 38% among AZ Hispanics.

I guess he ends up winning PR with about 45-50%.

How did he do amongst NV Hispanics?

Well in Hispanic North Las Vegas, the turnout rate was - er - zero.

And it appears not to have been much more robust elsewhere.

[Colbert]

37% Romney
31% Santorum
14% Gingrich
  8% Paul

Pollster We Ask America, based in Springfield, IL, contacted the 1,933 likely Republican voters who participated in our survey on Wednesday, accurate to within plus/minus 2.2 percentage points.

http://www.myfoxchicago.com/dpp/news/elections/mitt-romney-leads-rick-santorum-6-points-illinois-primary-election-republican-gop-presidential-candidates-poll-20120315

cons-ferrari : 37%
cons-moon : 45%
ron paul : 8%

[Lincoln Republican]

Backs up the Rasmussen poll showing a win  for Romney.

Love it!

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1720120314116