The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Aside from Gender, what are the differences between Sanders and Warren? It seems that if both ran they'd be going for the exact same group of voters, split it, and hand the nomination to someone more establishment.

Well, that is what happened (in reverse) in the GOP primaries last year, no?  "Establishment" Republicans agreed that there needed to be one "establishment" champion to take down Trump, but rather than all agreeing on who that should be in the invisible primary stage, multiple establishment candidates all decided to run at the same time (spending much of the primary campaign beating each other up), and they split the vote of that faction multiple ways, which eased Trump's path to the nomination.

[Mr. Morden]

Tim Ryan says he doesn't know if he's going to run for president in 2020:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrPVw7PdgNg&t=4m30s

[Mr. Morden]

New Cosmo story on Klobuchar:

http://www.cosmopolitan.com/politics/a12152695/amy-klobuchar-interview-president-2020/

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[Mr. Morden]

Trump to hold a meeting with NY and NJ elected officials, including Booker, Christie, Cuomo, Gillibrand, and Schumer:

link

No word on whether 2020 will be mentioned. 

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/08/politics/joe-biden-2020-ashley-biden/index.html

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Also:

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/906240826870771713

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[Mr. Morden]

This week’s #2020Vision column:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/08/politics/2020-vision-democrats-single-payer/index.html

Again, much of it has already been covered in this thread.  I feel like this line from Harris was already mentioned here, but I can’t find it, so I’ll quote it again:

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Also, Eric Garcetti is making his acting debut:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/rambling-reporter/la-mayor-eric-garcetti-make-movie-acting-debut-valley-girl-remake-1035317

[Mr. Morden]

Sunday morning talk show watch: Bernie Sanders will be on "Meet the Press" this Sunday:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEWS_SHOWS?SITE=AP

[Mr. Morden]

Here's Sanders on Colbert:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tv-hgegVq0k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTIStPerVNw

And here's a direct link to the part where Colbert asks him about 2020, and Sanders dodges the question:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTIStPerVNw&t=2m42s

[Mr. Morden]

O'Malley was in Iowa yet again this weekend:

https://twitter.com/NateBoulton/status/906295900619735040

And Merkley is there right now.  Here's a brief recap of his trip there so far this weekend (he arrived last night, and had events today, plus more events tomorrow before leaving tomorrow night):

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2017/09/10/jeff-merkley-iowa-caucuses-progressive-policies/650552001/

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But Merkley claims he's traveling more now simply because his kids are now grown, not because he's angling for the presidency:

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[Mr. Morden]

Biden's Daughter - Joe Biden considering 2020 run.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/08/politics/joe-biden-2020-ashley-biden/index.html?sr=twCNNp090817joe-biden-2020-ashley-biden0234PMVODtop&CNNPolitics=Tw

You're the third person to post that same news story in this thread. 

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=233345.msg5815698#msg5815698

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=233345.msg5816370#msg5816370

[Mr. Morden]

Evidently missed in this thread, but Rep. Tim Ryan (OH-13) doesn't know if he's running for President or not.

Your link doesn't work for me, but if you're talking about this:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=233345.msg5813704#msg5813704

then I already posted it.

[Mr. Morden]

A billionaire Democratic donor says that "quite a few" 2020 Dem. presidential candidates have already reached out to him looking for support, and they're all politicians rather than celebrities or businesspeople:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/12/democrat-marc-lasry-we-need-a-message-beyond-anybody-but-trump.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Latest from Kaine....and his wife:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/12/tim-kaine-virginia-campaign-trail-242388

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[Mr. Morden]

If California moves their primary up to be fifth in line (as is expected) Kamala Harris' chances of running are at least 85% and her chances of winning the nomination are going to be pretty damn high.

They're moving their primary up to Super Tuesday which won't help Kamala survive the early primaries. California also loses 20% of its delegates at the cost of moving ahead so it isn't like she'll gain that many more delegates by winning it on Super Tuesday. Primaries aren't winner take all for Dems so as long as her opponent can put up semi competitive numbers there then they're fine. My problem with seeing Kamala win the primary is that I don't see her winning one of Iowa or New Hampshire. If you don't win at least one of those I don't think you can be the nominee.

Nope. California only loses its delegates if it moves up its primary before iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. And I'm pretty sure it said it will stand alone, not on Super Tuesday.

It will not stand alone.  The bill currently before the legislature would move the primary to the first Tuesday in March, which is Super Tuesday.  The same day when 10+ other states (mostly in the South, like Texas, Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama) are voting.

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/p/2020-presidential-primary-calendar.html

And if it does make this move, then it will lose some delegates compared to the number it had in 2016.  States that vote later in the primary calendar get bonus delegates relative to the baseline number that they get based on population and party strength.  Voting in June, like it did in 2016, provides a delegate bonus of 20%.  Whereas voting in March gives you no delegate bonus.  So yes, moving from June to March will cost them some delegates.

[And if they moved up further into February or earlier, then not only would there be no delegate bonus, but there'd be a steep delegate penalty.  Only IA/NH/NV/SC are allowed to go in February without a delegate penalty.]

[Mr. Morden]

Cuomo dodges the question when asked if he'll run for president:

http://freebeacon.com/politics/cuomo-dodges-question-potential-2020-presidential-run/

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[Mr. Morden]

Sunday morning talk show watch: Bernie Sanders and Tom Cotton will be on Meet the Press on Sunday:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEWS_SHOWS?SITE=AP

[Mr. Morden]

This week’s #2020Vision column:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/15/politics/2020-vision-california-primary-march/index.html

Some highlights…

Biden wrote an anti-Trump op/ed that ran in the NYT yesterday:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/14/opinion/joe-biden-more-perfect-union.html

And Cory Gardner is headed to South Carolina:

http://www.postandcourier.com/news/colorado-sen-cory-gardner-will-headline-south-carolina-gop-s/article_64af0424-928e-11e7-a75c-732fb427d655.html

I don’t believe he would primary Trump, but maybe he’s prepping for 2024. 

Not mentioned there, but I found it in a different article, Kander makes his third trip to NH in a month, and addresses 2020 speculation:

http://www.concordmonitor.com/Jason-Kandor-comes-to-New-Hampshire-for-fifth-time-headlines-Democrats-dinner-12520448

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[Mr. Morden]

Anthony Scaramucci has reportedly told friends that he's interested in running for office some day, possibly even the presidency (though not against Trump, so probably not in 2020):

https://www.buzzfeed.com/stevenperlberg/friends-are-saying-that-anthony-scaramucci-wants-to-run-for?utm_term=.vfzka9Gjo#.ha36VQ8d9

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[Mr. Morden]

Joe Biden’s latest project seems consistent with someone who still has political aspirations:

http://time.com/4946175/joe-biden-institute-workers-2020-president/

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[Mr. Morden]

The NYT has a new story on how Warren is following a traditional script in terms of laying the presidential groundwork, including opening up about herself more.  She's also apparently talking to various policy experts, including foreign policy, which she had previously not shown a great deal of interest in:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/19/us/politics/bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren-democrats-presidential-election.html

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I also found this interesting:

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[Mr. Morden]

Jeff Merkley seems to be leaning towards a run:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/09/19/meet-the-leader-of-the-vast-left-wing-conspiracy-215622

His main challenge now is to boost name recognition.

Also of interest there:

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[Mr. Morden]

John Kerry asked about a presidential run:

http://freebeacon.com/politics/kerry-doesnt-rule-out-2020-white-house-bid-i-have-no-plans/

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[Mr. Morden]

This thread has reached 2000 replies, so I'm locking it.  Here's the new thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273224.0