The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Hey guys, there are plenty of threads here for idle speculation.  This thread is about actual news about people who might run.  Not really intended for "Hey, what about X?  Maybe he'll run." type posts, that aren't grounded in any actual news.

[Mr. Morden]

Relevant again, now that Clinton has lost:

The New York Post says that Cuomo has no intention of challenging Clinton in 2016 (duh), but is gearing up to run for president in 2020, should the GOP win in 2016:

http://nypost.com/2014/11/03/cuomo-might-run-for-president-in-2020-if-hillary-loses-in-2016/

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[Mr. Morden]

A reporter asks Klobuchar about possible 2020 ambitions, and she gives a non-denial answer:

http://kstp.com/politics/us-senator-amy-klobuchar-2020-presidential-run-speculation/4315698/?cat=12681

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Meanwhile, looks like Cuomo talked to Trump on Wednesday.  He says there may be benefits to New York in having Trump in the White House:

http://www.twcnews.com/nys/central-ny/decision-2016/2016/11/9/andrew-cuomo-gets-call-from-donald-trump.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Both Cuomo and Warren are asked about 2020:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/which-democrats-could-challenge-donald-trump-in-2020-presidentia/

Cuomo

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Warren

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[Mr. Morden]

I continue to think that if Trump gets a challenger, it’s most likely to come from the so-called Liberty wing of the party.  Maybe it’ll be Rand Paul, but Justin Amash continues to be the one I’m looking at as a leading possibility.  Amash is already voicing skepticism about Trump, as seen by his recent tweets:

https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/797213664021512194
https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/797264890197053440
https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/797421508297707520 (this one is from the AP, but was retweeted by Amash)

Meanwhile, on the Sanders front, Bernie’s wife says that he’s not concerned about what happens in 2020, as he’s focused on the present:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/11/politics/jane-sanders-bernie-sanders-2020/

But then, what else is she going to say?

[Mr. Morden]

More Cuomo talk:

http://buffalonews.com/2016/11/13/cuomo-in-2020/

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The story also notes that it’s unclear if, should Cuomo decide to run, he’ll bother running for a 3rd term as governor first in 2018.  It might be easier for him to leave Albany before mounting a presidential campaign.

[Mr. Morden]

2020 watch on the Sunday morning talk shows: Booker was on Meet the Press this morning, while Sanders was on Face the Nation.

[Mr. Morden]

Some more 2020 talk from the Dems (much of it dated, but relevant again)….

Biden
Over the summer, Biden said that he wouldn’t rule out running for office in the future:

http://time.com/4432295/joe-biden-vice-president-office-2/

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Booker
A few days before the election, this was Booker on 2020:

http://www.wkyc.com/news/politics/elections/us-senator-cory-booker-one-on-one/347525918

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de Blasio

This story from last year is worth a read again:

http://www.businessinsider.com/what-does-bill-de-blasio-want-in-2016-2015-4

It talks about how de Blasio made a trip to Iowa last year, which sparked a brief round of speculation about whether he might be interested in running as the progressive insurgent candidate against Clinton in the ’16 Dem. primaries.  Of course, de Blasio passed on a run:

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But that was in response to the question of whether he’d run in ’16.  Running for reelection as mayor of NYC doesn’t preclude him running for president in 2020.

[Mr. Morden]

Republican Governors Association is meeting this week, and as this story notes, it now looks like folks like Kasich and Walker are putting their presidential ambitions on hold because Trump will presumably be re-nominated in 2020:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-11-15/now-in-trump-s-shadow-republican-governors-put-presidential-aspirations-on-hold

In Kasich's case, "on hold" might well mean "giving up on", since he'll be over 70 in 2024.

[Mr. Morden]

With Warren as (potentially) de facto Dem. frontrunner, it's worth taking a look at how she's handling her new position as part of the opposition to Trump.  The latest is that she sent Trump a letter:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/11/15/elizabeth-warren-wants-trump-shake-his-transition-team-else/1VIgKifk1aXmf1P1zsDf3K/story.html

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[Mr. Morden]

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/gov-cuomo-seek-reelection-run-president-article-1.2874698

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[Mr. Morden]

Kaine says no presidential run for him in 2020:

http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/article_cd9f08c2-9594-585d-a558-b4b7bbc55ced.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Is Kaine the only Democrat who has explicitly ruled out a run?

Among actual politicians?  Yes, I believe he's the only one.  However, Michelle Obama has also ruled out running:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/16/politics/michelle-obama-president-sxsw/index.html

[Mr. Morden]

Aside from Kaine's apparently removing himself from the race....

In the week+ since election day, Sanders has explicitly said that he's not ruling out a 2020 presidential campaign.  Meanwhile, Cuomo, Klobuchar, and Warren have all been asked about future presidential plans, and they all gave non-answers like "that's a long way off".

[Mr. Morden]

On another note, it occurs to me that Booker faces a Rand Paul problem in 2020: He's up for reelection for his Senate seat that year.  And the primary for both Senate and President is the same day.  Can he legally run for both offices at the same time?  Would he actually do so?

OTOH, the NJ primary isn't until June, and the filing deadline is early April.  Presumably he could run for president, and the nomination will most like be decided by the end of March anyway, so he would know whether he needs to drop out of the race to run for Senate or not.

[Mr. Morden]

This is also an issue for Coons, Klobuchar, Merkley, Peters, Udall, Warner, Markey, Shaheen, Reed, and Durbin.

Klobuchar's seat isn't up in 2020.  Franken's seat is up that year.

[Mr. Morden]

What are Julian Castro’s post-Obama admin. plans?

http://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Castro-has-no-immediate-plans-to-run-for-office-10605120.php

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As the story notes, Julian’s brother Juaquin is considering running for Ted Cruz’s Senate seat in 2018.

[Mr. Morden]

This is weird.  The South Carolina press is reporting on rumors that people are quietly urging Tim Scott to be ready to run for president in 2020 just in case this whole Donald Trump thing doesn’t work out:

http://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/election/article115620113.html

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[Mr. Morden]

There are both Cory Booker 2020 and Elizabeth Warren 2020 Facebook pages:

https://www.facebook.com/PresidentCoryBooker/
https://www.facebook.com/VoteforElizabethWarren/

Here is a picture of two people preparing to savagely attack each other on the 2020 Democratic primary debate stage:

[Mr. Morden]

Here's another picture of people preparing to tear each other's throats out on the 2020 Democratic primary debate stage in a few years:

[Mr. Morden]

Sunday morning talk show watch: Sanders on Meet the Press this morning:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEWS_SHOWS?SITE=AP

He was on Face the Nation last week.  Is he going to be a regular fixture on these shows for the duration of Trump's term?

[Mr. Morden]

Bevin and Cotton will be guests at Branstad's birthday bash next month.

Even though Trump crushed their 2020 dreams by winning the election this year, Bevin and Cotton still showed up:

http://www.kcci.com/article/talk-of-2020-presidential-race-looms-at-governors-birthday-bash/8344231

Either:

1) They were being polite by not cancelling,
2) They're hedging their bets on Trump running again, or
3) It's never too early to start laying the groundwork for 2024.

[Mr. Morden]

I posted a thread about Howard Dean saying that he currently favors Gillibrand for president in 2020.  But I figure that I should also post in this thread how her office responded:

http://www.registerstar.com/news/article_53afce3e-ade6-11e6-9e2d-770246b848ab.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Not sure if this was posted here earlier, but Mother Jones lists 11 dems who could defeat Trump:

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/11/democrats-defeat-trump-president-2020

Warren
Kaine (already out)
Klobuchar
Gillibrand
Harris
Duckworth
Booker
O'Malley
(Chris) Murphy
Hickenlooper
Michelle Obama (already out)

Some more whispering about Chris Murphy is within this long article (also mentions Julian Castro and some more obvious people): http://qz.com/836658/donald-trumps-age-how-baby-boomer-generation-x-and-millennial-presidents-would-change-the-course-of-america/

Get your Deblasio Buzz here: http://nypost.com/2016/11/12/clintons-loss-means-a-de-blasio-cuomo-2020-race/

Bustle.com: 7 Democrats who could run in 2020: https://www.bustle.com/articles/194585-7-democrats-who-could-run-for-president-in-2020-and-take-the-white-house-from-donald (Booker, Warren, (Sherrod) Brown, Gillibrand, Harris, Duckworth, (Tulsi) Gabbard)

There are many such articles posting speculated lists of people who might run, but I haven’t posted them unless they have news content, like “Candidate X said Y, which is why we think they might run”.  I like to separate out the news on what the candidates themselves are saying and doing from who the news media is guessing about.  E.g., in the article you linked to with whispering about Chris Murphy, or the one about “de Blasio buzz”, it was just columnists speculating, not citing things like de Blasio’s visit to Iowa last year, or anything like that.

The stuff I post in this thread (aside from the fun pictures of Senators) is: what are the prospective candidates doing and saying, and/or what are people in their inner circle saying about their ambitions?  To the extent I discuss idle speculation like “What if so-and-so runs?” it’s about how the candidates respond to such speculation.  E.g., in my earlier post, I commented on Dean “endorsing” Gillibrand only to note how Gillibrand’s office responded.

Not trying to criticize here, just clarify.  I just don’t want people to see things like “whispering about Chris Murphy” and assume that it’s a story with some actual evidence that Chris Murphy might be thinking about it, when it’s just someone name checking Murphy in a long list of Senators in the right age range.

[Mr. Morden]

Politico has a story on how Warren is setting herself up as a leader of the loyal opposition to Trump:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/elizabeth-warren-democrats-liberals-231692

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