Canadian by-elections, 2012

[DL]

Mulcair does not have the power to "swoop in and appoint" anyone in Oshawa and even though the bulk of NDP members in Oshawa may be with the CAW doesn't mean that the candidate has to be an old fashioned union leader. Back in 1968 all those auto workers in Oshawa chose as their federal candidate a political philosophy professor from York University with a passion for John Stewart Mill. His name was Ed Broadbent!

[DL]

Keep in mind that redistribution could also have a big impact on Oshawa. Ontario gains 15 seats and there is a lot of growth in Durham region. The NDP tends to do well in the older "downtown" parts of Oshawa and less well in the more outlying suburban areas. Its quite possible that a new riding will be created east of Toronto and that the current riding of Oshawa may shrink in size and give up some of the more Tory-leaning territory.

[DL]

I suspect that Sid Ryan will be steering clear of federal politics for the next while anyways. He said some very nasty things about Mulcair in the NDP leadership race and the fact that Ryan is such an anti-Israel fanatic would probably make him persona non grata with the Mulcair team.

[DL]

Well, I think it's possible for them to appeal to the 905, but the Cons and Liberals are more appealing at first glance? If they can't win them, they need to Liberals to eat at Conservative support there to keep both parties seat totals at a minimum in the region - maybe even pick up a few.

A lot of people who vote Liberal in "905" only do so because the Liberals have historically been the only party that could compete with the Tories. Many if not most Liberal voters in 905 would drop the Liberals like a hot potato for the NDP if they saw the NDP as having a shot at winning. We got a taste of that phenomenon when the ONDP won Bramalea-Gore-Malton

[DL]

In Toronto I call them "Ford New Democrats" - people who voted for Rob Ford for mayor and then turned around and voted NDP federally.

[DL]

Of course if you were an NDP voting immigrant who objected to Smitherman for being gay, it begs the question why not Joe Pantalone? He is str8 was backed by Miller and Layton etc...

[DL]

I don't rule out the PCs winning Vaughan. Let's not forget that Julian Fantino won Vaughan federally for the Tories by a huge margin and just like the PCs won Waterloo thanks to Witmer's personal popularity...a lot of the Liberal toe in Vaughan was a personal vote for Sorbara...the PCs also ran a very weak candidate in Vaughan who was controversial for having previously run for the Liberals against Fantino...and lost.

I have a hunch that whatever Liberal plan there was to win Waterloo fell through. The NDP has the strongest candidate in Catherine Fife and the Liberals are not picking a candidate until next week and the race is between three mediocrities.

[DL]

Its worth noting that last October the NDP took only 11% in Vaughan - so even 15% is a decent showing in what is normally a total dead zone for them.

[DL]

Now forum is hinting in tweets that their latest poll has the Tories leading in Waterloo and the NDP eating into Liberal support....no details yet

[DL]

In this case the "strategic voting" argument is the opposite, the PCs would make the srtgument that people thinking of voting NDP should vote PC make sure McGuinty doesn't regain his majority - in which case all the NDP's clout would be lost.

[DL]

Forum has just released a poll in Kitchener Waterloo and its a shocker: PC 34%, NDP 30%, Liberals 30%. If we comp-are these numbers to the October election the NDP is up 13 points, the PCs are down 9 points and the Liberals are down 6 points. If the NDP can win a riding like Waterloo - what's to stop them from winning all of Ontario?

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1241559--ontario-liberals-supported-in-vaughan-but-lose-ground-in-kitchener-waterloo-new-polls-show

[DL]

I'm still not really convinced the individual candidates are affecting things that much - the NDP is actually doing very well in province-wide polls, in some cases better than the Liberals

I'm not sure what more evidence you need. The NDP was polling just as well province-wide at the end of April when Forum polled K-W and asked people how they would vote giving just party names and no local candidate names. Back then the NDP polled 20%, now a couple of months later, nothing has changed province-wide - yet just by adding the candidates' names the NDP surges from 20% to 30% thanks to Catherine Fife...in Vaughan where the NDP will likely run a no-name candidate - there is no NDP "bounce at all". In  byelections in particular - local candidates matter a lot.

[DL]

I suspect that Savoie signaled to the party a while ago that she was going to step down and they timed it so that a byelection in a solid NDP seat (ie: Victoria) would have to be on the same day as the other byelections that are all in really bad seats for the NDP like Calgary Centre, Durham and Etobicoke Centre.

[DL]

I can think of a few reasons why the NDP would probably just as soon see the Supreme Court quash the lower court judgement and for there to be no Etobicoke Centre byelection.

1. If there is a byelection, the Liberals would be heavily favoured to win if only because byelections tend to go against the party in power and the tory win in that seat was seen as a bit of an unexpected fluke last year. The last thing the NDP needs is for the Liberal party to get any oxygen or momentum as a result of picking up a seat in a byelection.

2. If the court upholds the lower court ruling - it will actually help the Conservatives in the long-run and hurt the NDP in the long-run since it will set a precedent for a very high bar in terms of voter ID on election day etc... just the kind of "vote suppression" that the GOP is pushing for the in the US. If the courts rule that everyone needs photo ID and documentation to vote - it will dissuade younger, poorer, more transient people from voting.

[DL]

Speaking of Kitchener Waterloo, it's impossible to listen to more than ten minutes of radio without an ad from either the Liberals (OMG TEH TORIES OUT TO KILL OUR TEACHERS!1!!), NDP (OMG BOTH TEH PARTIES IDENTICAL!!1!), or PCs (OMG TEH LIBS DROWNING UR KIDS IN DEBT!!1!1).

Are the Liberals actually running ads saying that the Tories are out to kill "our teachers" Right now the teachers are all up in arms that its the Liberals who are hitting them with a two by four! There are literally bus loads of teachers going to Waterloo to help the NDP because they all hate Mcguinty so much now.

[DL]

The greatest thing about that Forum poll is it has the Tories and the Liberals TIED for second, meaning strategic anti-NDP voters wont know who to chose to stop the orange tide.

Is there even such a thing as a "strategic anti-NDP voter" anymore? Especially in a by election situation

[DL]

I would be willing to bet my life savings that if the ONDP gets 36% of the vote in the next Ontario election and the Liberals get reduced to 22% - the NDP will have MORE seats than the Liberals wayyyy more.

[DL]

I'm very sceptical about that poll. It could see the Tories losing Calgary Centre if there was a two way race and the opposition vote consolidated behind one candidate - kind of like the way the NDP won Edmonton-Strathcona in 2008 and again in 2011 where it was literally 43% NDP 42%CPC and with the Libs and Greens in low single digits. When the Reform Party lost Calgary Centre to Joe Clark in 2000 it was also a two way race where the Liberal and NDP vote literally evaporated and consolidated behind Joe Clark

But I cannot see the Conservative vote in Calgary Centre falling as low as 32% where they could lose in a four way race with even the NDP in the teens. I think that the Tory "floor" in Calgary Centre is probably about 40% and this poll has them way too low.

[DL]

Then again, it's Calgary Centre.  And unlike 2000, we're dealing w/a governing party to protest against (even w/a native-son leader)--

Yes, but in case you haven't noticed Harper and the Conservatives seem to be very popular in Alberta...also while the riding is called Calgary Centre, its not as "inner city" as you might think. First of all the west half of the riding is actually a very wealthy old money area that is rock ribbed Tory and the more downtown area has a lot of very expensive condos...this is Calgary after all - everything is pretty upscale.

[DL]

Yeah it's hard to believe...but it could be a "Joe Clark" type situation.  It is the most progressive riding in Calgary.

However I expect if the Liberals actually do take it they're likely to read too much into it and see it as evidence as Trudeau-mania and how only they not the NDP can win etc.  I could imagine CC as a "Lib Dem" type seat in a "UK style" parliament.

I'm not so sure about that. The riding across the river from Calgary centre that includes the university area may actually be mor "progressive" than CC