Canadian by-elections, 2012

[Хahar 🤔]

I'll go ahead and say that there's zero chance that the Liberals gain that seat. Right now, the Liberals still don't have a majority; they have exactly half the seats, which isn't enough.

[Хahar 🤔]

I agree, but I don't think the Liberals will ever completely vanish - they will rattle along like the British Liberals as a distant third party punished heavily by the FPTP system and reduced to 20-30 seats that will be combination of idiosyncratic seats that happen to have a personally popular Liberal MP and about 10-15 seats across the country that will be the "Liberal base" in that they are larded with rich professionals - and that's it. The Canadian Liberals like their British counterpart will go to bed every night praying that there will be an election that is so close between the two big parties - NDP and CPC that they have the balance of power and can be tossed a few scraps from the adult table.

It's worth noting that there are plenty of examples in the provinces of Liberal parties disappearing altogether; as far as I can tell, there are no comparable examples with provincial NDPs.

[Хahar 🤔]

To disappear, you need to exist in the first place. In New Brunswick the NDP has never had more than one seat so it cannot be compared to a province like Manitoba where the Liberals were once government and then official opposition before being annihilated. Things are changing in NB, the federal NDP took 29% of the vote there last year and recent polls have the NB NDP in the low to mid 20s - which would be more than enough to start winning seats in Saint John and maybe Fredericton or Moncton and the Northeast

To be fair, a lot of the NDP vote in New Brunswick is just the result of Yvon Godin's extreme popularity.

[Хahar 🤔]

By-election and all, but my god, I don't understand why anyone would vote for the Green Party.

[Хahar 🤔]

By-election and all, but my god, I don't understand why anyone would vote for the Green Party.

Only in BC.

And only on Vancouver Island, it seems.

[Хahar 🤔]

Peter Penashue has resigned and will contest the Labrador by-election.