Mexican state and local elections 2009

[ag]

PRI is ahead of PAN for Queretaor governor. Now, if that holds!

[jaichind]

40% counted.  PRI 35, PAN 27, PRD 12.

[ag]

It would seem that 35+26+12=73.  Either PT C PVEM PANAL PASC all did very well or the NULL vote is actually greater than 7%.

Yes, they did do well

Here is the current distribution:

PRI alone 35.36%
PVEM alone 7.13%
PRI/PVEM joint 0.42%
(note, that together they have 42%, which will imply that they will be right around 50% of the seats, as PRI gets to the 8% bound)

PAN alone 26.84%

PRD alone 12.27%

PT alone 4.00%
Convergencia alone 2.44%
PT/Convergencia joint 0.27%

Panal alone 3.58%

PSD alone 1.20%

Null votes: 6.20%
write-ins 0.23%

[jaichind]

It would seem that 35+26+12=73.  Either PT C PVEM PANAL PASC all did very well or the NULL vote is actually greater than 7%.

Yes, they did do well

Here is the current distribution:

PRI alone 35.36%
PVEM alone 7.13%
PRI/PVEM joint 0.42%
(note, that together they have 42%, which will imply that they will be right around 50% of the seats, as PRI gets to the 8% bound)

PAN alone 26.84%

PRD alone 12.27%

PT alone 4.00%
Convergencia alone 2.44%
PT/Convergencia joint 0.27%

Panal alone 3.58%

PSD alone 1.20%

Null votes: 6.20%
write-ins 0.23%

Hmm, should we not normalize the PRI/PVEM 42% by the 6.2% Null vote which would be around 44.5% of the valid vote.  Or does the 8% rule apply before throwing out the null votes?

[ag]

It would seem that 35+26+12=73.  Either PT C PVEM PANAL PASC all did very well or the NULL vote is actually greater than 7%.

Yes, they did do well

Here is the current distribution:

PRI alone 35.36%
PVEM alone 7.13%
PRI/PVEM joint 0.42%
(note, that together they have 42%, which will imply that they will be right around 50% of the seats, as PRI gets to the 8% bound)

PAN alone 26.84%

PRD alone 12.27%

PT alone 4.00%
Convergencia alone 2.44%
PT/Convergencia joint 0.27%

Panal alone 3.58%

PSD alone 1.20%

Null votes: 6.20%
write-ins 0.23%

Hmm, should we not normalize the PRI/PVEM 42% by the 6.2% Null vote which would be around 44.5% of the valid vote.  Or does the 8% rule apply before throwing out the null votes?

It applies separately by party - no constraint on PVEM, that's 1.  And, I believe, the null votes do not count for anything. So, yes, together they have 50% of the seats, most likely. But their alliance is not iron-clad, of course: PVEM will try to sell itself for a good price.

[jaichind]

It would seem that 35+26+12=73.  Either PT C PVEM PANAL PASC all did very well or the NULL vote is actually greater than 7%.

Yes, they did do well

Here is the current distribution:

PRI alone 35.36%
PVEM alone 7.13%
PRI/PVEM joint 0.42%
(note, that together they have 42%, which will imply that they will be right around 50% of the seats, as PRI gets to the 8% bound)

PAN alone 26.84%

PRD alone 12.27%

PT alone 4.00%
Convergencia alone 2.44%
PT/Convergencia joint 0.27%

Panal alone 3.58%

PSD alone 1.20%

Null votes: 6.20%
write-ins 0.23%

Hmm, should we not normalize the PRI/PVEM 42% by the 6.2% Null vote which would be around 44.5% of the valid vote.  Or does the 8% rule apply before throwing out the null votes?

It applies separately by party - no constraint on PVEM, that's 1.  And, I believe, the null votes do not count for anything. So, yes, together they have 50% of the seats, most likely. But their alliance is not iron-clad, of course: PVEM will try to sell itself for a good price.

I would imagin it would not matter that much.  I would think that with an eye on the 2012 election, the PRI faction leaders will try to cooperate with the PAN administration to show they can be a constructive oppisition.  Hence I think the 2006-2009 mode of general PRI-PAN cooperation will continue but will wane as 2012 approaches when the PRI will look to differenciate it from the PAN government.

[ag]

So, here are the direct seats by state (started it before, never finished, of course still preliminary):

Aguascalientes: PAN 2, PRI 1
BC: PAN 8
BCS: PRD 2
Campeche: PRI 2
Coahuila: PRI 7
Colima: PRI 2
Chiapas: PAN 5, PRI/PVEM 4, PRD 3
Chihuahua: PRI 7, PAN 2
DF: PRD 16, PAN 7, PT/Convergencia 3, PRI/PVEM 1
Durango: PRI 4
Guanajuato: PAN 11, PRD 2 (!), PRI/PVEM 1
Guerrero: PRI 6, PRI/PVEM 2, PRD 1
Hidalgo: PRI 6, PRI/PVEM 1
Jalisco: PRI 8, PRI/PVEM 3, PAN 8
Mexico: PRI/PVEM 30 (!), PRI 8, PAN 2
Michoacan: PRD 7, PAN 4, PRI 1
Morelos: PRI 5
Nayarit: PRD 2, PAN 1
Nuevo Leon: PAN 7, PRI 5
Oaxaca: PRI 11
Puebla: PRI 13, PRI/PVEM 1, PAN 2
Queretaro: PAN 2, PRI 2
Quintana Roo: PRI/PVEM 2, PRI 1
San Luis Potosi: PAN 5, PRI 2
Sinaloa :PRI 6, PAN 2
Sonora: PAN 4, PRI 3
Tabasco: PRI 4, PRD 2
Tamaulipas: PRI 8
Tlaxcala: PAN 3
Veracruz: PRI 12, PAN 8, Panal 1
Yucatan: PRI/PVEM 5
Zacatecas: PRD 4

[jaichind]

So, here are the direct seats by state (started it before, never finished, of course still preliminary):

Aguascalientes: PAN 2, PRI 1
BC: PAN 8
BCS: PRD 2
Campeche: PRI 2
Coahuila: PRI 7
Colima: PRI 2
Chiapas: PAN 5, PRI/PVEM 4, PRD 3
Chihuahua: PRI 7, PAN 2
DF: PRD 16, PAN 7, PT/Convergencia 3, PRI/PVEM 1
Durango: PRI 4
Guanajuato: PAN 11, PRD 2 (!), PRI/PVEM 1
Guerrero: PRI 6, PRI/PVEM 2, PRD 1
Hidalgo: PRI 6, PRI/PVEM 1
Jalisco: PRI 8, PRI/PVEM 3, PAN 8
Mexico: PRI/PVEM 30 (!), PRI 8, PAN 2
Michoacan: PRD 7, PAN 4, PRI 1
Morelos: PRI 5
Nayarit: PRD 2, PAN 1
Nuevo Leon: PAN 7, PRI 5
Oaxaca: PRI 11
Puebla: PRI 13, PRI/PVEM 1, PAN 2
Queretaro: PAN 2, PRI 2
Quintana Roo: PRI/PVEM 2, PRI 1
San Luis Potosi: PAN 5, PRI 2
Sinaloa :PRI 6, PAN 2
Sonora: PAN 4, PRI 3
Tabasco: PRI 4, PRD 2
Tamaulipas: PRI 8
Tlaxcala: PAN 3
Veracruz: PRI 12, PAN 8, Panal 1
Yucatan: PRI/PVEM 5
Zacatecas: PRD 4

Wow, PAN ahead in 5 in Chiapas?  The Oaxaca PRI clean sweep looks fishy but who knows.

[ag]

PRI is sweeping Mexico State. It's very early, but they are ahead in such panista strongholds as Naucalpan, Toluca and Tlalnepantla, and in peredista strongholds, such as Chalco, Ecatepec and Nezahualcoyotl. If it holds, I will be forced to take Pena Nieto as a serious presidential candidate. This is ridiculously incredible!

[ag]

If PRI holds Sonora and wins in Queretaro (it is now ahead, though slightly, in both), it will be stronger than it has ever been since democracy arrived.

[ag]

Though PAN holds lots of villages in Jalisco, it's wiped out in the Guadalajara metro. PRI is ahead in Guadalajara, Tlaquepaque, Tonala and Zapopan. Tlajomulco is w/ PRD.

[ag]

PRI is still ahead in Queretaro.

They are barely counting in Sonora. PAN has inched ahead, but it is very early.

[jaichind]

59% of votes counted.  Still PRI 35 PAN 26 PRD 12.

[ag]

Looks like PRI is picking up Queretaro - the lead is similar to that in NL. PAN is still ahead (slightly) in Sonora, but they are furthest behind in the count there, and Hermosillo hasn't really started reporting.

[ag]

so, here is the Sonora governor's race at this point (very slow count)

PAN 13,382 votes
PRI 12,112 votes
invalid 857 votes
PRD 854 votes
PT 316 votes
PSD 126 votes

If PAN managed to hold this one, they'd compensate for Queretaro loss, and, at least, as far as the governorships are concerned there would be no net change. But that's a big if: we are still waiting for anything from Hermosillo here.

[ag]

Here is Queretaro governor's race (61% of the precincts reporting):

PRI/PANAL 189,652 votes
PAN 174,485 votes
PVEM 9,179 votes
PRD 7,541 votes
Convergencia 5,596 votes
PT 4,619 votes
PSD 1,315 votes

[ag]

A few more votes in Sonora:

PAN 16,558 votes
PRI 15,035 votes
PRD 1,136 votes
invalid 1,009 votes
PT 382 votes
PSD 165 votes

still, almost nothing from Hermosillo.

[ag]

Update on seat distribution by state

Aguascalientes: PAN 2, PRI 1
BC: PAN 8
BCS: PRD 1, PRI 1
Campeche: PRI 2
Coahuila: PRI 7
Colima: PRI 2
Chiapas: PAN 5, PRI/PVEM 4, PRD 3
Chihuahua: PRI 7, PAN 2
DF: PRD 17, PAN 6, PT/Convergencia 3, PRI/PVEM 1
Durango: PRI 4
Guanajuato: PAN 11, PRD 2 (!), PRI/PVEM 1
Guerrero: PRI 5, PRI/PVEM 2, PRD 2
Hidalgo: PRI 6, PRI/PVEM 1
Jalisco: PRI 8, PRI/PVEM 3, PAN 8
Mexico: PRI/PVEM 30 (!), PRI 8, PAN 2
Michoacan: PRD 8, PAN 3, PRI 1
Morelos: PRI 5
Nayarit: PRD 2, PAN 1
Nuevo Leon: PAN 6, PRI 6
Oaxaca: PRI 11
Puebla: PRI 14, PRI/PVEM 1, PAN 1
Queretaro: PRI 3, PAN 1
Quintana Roo: PRI/PVEM 2, PRI 1
San Luis Potosi: PAN 5, PRI 2
Sinaloa :PRI 7, PAN 1
Sonora: PRI 4, PAN 3
Tabasco: PRI 4, PRD 2
Tamaulipas: PRI 8
Tlaxcala: PAN 3
Veracruz: PRI 13, PAN 8
Yucatan: PRI/PVEM 5
Zacatecas: PRD 4

[ag]

Congressional vote distribution (almost 2/3 counted):

PRI 35.53%
PVEM 7.05%
PRI/PVEM 0.44%

PAN 27.11%

PRD 12.30%

PT 3.91%
Convergencia 2.42%
PT/Convergencia 0.26%

Panal 3.51%

PSD 1.18%

invalid 6.01%
write-ins 0.22%

[ag]

Finally, my federal booth has reported. Actually, these are 2 booths at the same precinct, but as people are assigned to booths alphabetically, I will just add them up:

PAN 296
PRI 95
PRD 39
PVEM 19
PT 18
PSD 17
Panal 3
Convergencia 1

invalid votes 74
write-ins 6

A nearby booth (at my daughter's school, as it happens)

PAN 166
PRI 45
PRD 18
PVEM 10
PT 9
Convergencia 5
PSD 3
Panal 2

invalid votes 35
write-ins 4

[ag]

Sonora is begining to look brighter for PAN (considering all the bad blood there between the parties, it would be a sweet victory, if it materializes)

PAN 32,170 votes
PRI/PVEM/PANAL  28,548 votes
PRD 2,270 votes
invalid 2,166 votes
PT 774 votes
PSD 287 votes

[ag]

More from Sonora

PAN 48,337 votes
PRI/PVEM/PANAL  43,720 votes
PRD 3,681 votes
invalid 3,132 votes
PT 1,249 votes
PSD 577 votes

[ag]

Sonora:

PAN 54,820 votes
PRI/PVEM/PANAL  49,272 votes
PRD 4,081votes
invalid 3,473 votes
PT 1,458 votes
PSD 625 votes

[/quote]

[ag]

It actually starts looking as if Sonora might buck the day's trend and shift from PRI to PAN:

PAN 99,341 votes
PRI/PVEM/PANAL  88,794 votes
PRD 7,384 votes
invalid 6,059 votes
PT 2,395 votes
PSD 1,203 votes

[ag]

Abotu 3/4 of the booths counted. As the count progresses, smaller parties loose vote share. It is now

PRI 35.98%
PVEM 6.86%
PRI/PVEM 0.44%

PAN 27.48%

PRD 12.22%

PT 3.75%
Convergencia 2.38%
PT/Convergencia 0.25%

Panal 3.44%

PSD 1.13%

invalid 5.79%
write-ins 0.21%