Beto O’Rourke 2020 campaign megathread

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Beto is off to a good start after all- Raising $6.1 Million in the first 24 hours, topping Bernie's $5.5 Million & Kamala's $1.5 Million.

*5.9 Million

However, I’d personally be more comfortable if we know how many donors he’s raised this amount of money from. To compare, Harris was ~38K and Sanders was ~225K.

My mistake regarding $5.5 vs $5.9.  Regarding the number of donors- he may have released this number- I haven't read an in depth article on the fundraising info.  But I do know that his Senate campaign received a lot of small dollar donors.

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Beto is off to a good start after all- Raising $6.1 Million in the first 24 hours, topping Bernie's $5.5 Million & Kamala's $1.5 Million.

*5.9 Million

However, I’d personally be more comfortable if we know how many donors he’s raised this amount of money from. To compare, Harris was ~38K and Sanders was ~225K.

My mistake regarding $5.5 vs $5.9.  Regarding the number of donors- he may have released this number- I haven't read an in depth article on the fundraising info.  But I do know that his Senate campaign received a lot of small dollar donors.

I expect he had a lower amount of donations than Sanders as its more #woke suburban women donating to him than #broke college students.

That wouldn't be too bad for Beto- considering Woke Suburban women will talk to & recruit a lot of their friends- and are more reliable voters than broke college students (although I think Beto will end up getting a lot of support from Broke college students as well... he certainly did in Texas).

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Beto is off to a good start after all- Raising $6.1 Million in the first 24 hours, topping Bernie's $5.9 Million & Kamala's $1.5 Million.

Take it Berniebros.

They're probably going to be even more triggered and deplorable today on social media than they normally are. Brace yourselves!

Joe and Mika can take a seat now too after they devoted a whole segment to trashing him, only minutes later having to report this glorious breaking news.

I was thinking the same thing.

How much of a bump in the iowa polls to you think Beto will get following his announcement & Iowa stops?  If it is a really noticeable jump- it will set of the bashers even more.

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Wow. r/politics is having a total meltdown right now.

Who is r/politics?

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I was just listening to Richard Branson's "Dividend Plan" (his alternative idea to a carbon tax)...

Since a Carbon Tax is so unpopular ... "{A dividend on the other hand, Branson argues, would have some key advantages over such a tax: companies would get their money back by investing the dividend in emerging “low carbon fuels and other breakthrough technologies.” They would also open up “millions of new jobs,” making both the public and governments happy through driving fuel prices down and boosting the economy.}"

This would be something good for Beto to support.

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I was just listening to Richard Branson's "Dividend Plan" (his alternative idea to a carbon tax)...

Since a Carbon Tax is so unpopular ... "{A dividend on the other hand, Branson argues, would have some key advantages over such a tax: companies would get their money back by investing the dividend in emerging “low carbon fuels and other breakthrough technologies.” They would also open up “millions of new jobs,” making both the public and governments happy through driving fuel prices down and boosting the economy.}"

This would be something good for Beto to support.

Isn't a carbon dividend just a revenue neutral carbon tax, but with payments instead of tax cuts elseware? If we ever do a carbon tax this is probably what it will be.

I think rather than paying a tax- the companies are required to put that money into fund exploring clean energy (which they maintain control of and which they will receive any dividends that result from this investment)... so its sort of a different way that will be a lot more popular with companies and is a way to increase investment clean energy, etc. ... which is a different take on a carbon tax than the plans that are usually mentioned.

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The last two Dems that had that "It" factor make up the last 16 Dem Presidential years in the White House.  (and they were in their 40s as well)... and pretty good winning formula.

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The last two Dems that had this "It" factor are make up the last 16 years of Dem Presidential years in the White House.  (and they were in their 40s as well)... and pretty good winning formula.

Are you telling me the average voter doesn't really care about issues that deeply(obviously being an actual Republican wouldn't work) but instead cares about useless stuff like retail politics and speeches?

No- Just that most Dem Presidential candidates agree on 90% or more policy positions... but the key if finding a candidate with enough Xfactor to sell that message to voters.  Also there are many reasons that explain why over the past 30 years Dems win with younger candidates (under 53 I think) and lose with older candidates (over 53)... a main one being that younger voters are the least reliable but vote overwhelmingly Dem when the turnout...and younger candidates and "It" factor candidates tend to energize and turnout a higher percentage of these younger voters.

"It" factor candidates (when there is one in the race) also tend to win the 5% or so undecided voters in the middle (in the general election)- who basically vote for who they like the best rather than on policy (and this 5% often decides the election).

All that said- probably the honest answer to your question is that more average voters than anyone on Atlas would think... pick who they like the most in general... then rationalize a reason to vote for that person.

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Upon visiting my parents last weekend, it appeared FOX News is covering Beto non stop and trying to make him a bogeyman. Seems pretty stupid of them to heighten him up out of the mid tier if you ask me

This is how I keep tabs on the Trump/Fox voter... via my grandparents (who are Romney-McCain-Trump voters) and my mom who is somehow an Obama-Trump voter who migrated to only watching Fox (Never CNN or MSNBC anymore).  Luckily my dad is still sane!

My mom has actually voted for the winner in every presidential election since she could vote (the fact that she began supporting Trump over Hillary is the only thing that had me slightly worried that Hillary may loose... Logic told me there was no way.. but I also knew that my mom was that sort of 5% in the middle voter- who understands policy, yet still tends to simply vote for who they like the most) that almost always decides elections ... Reagan-Bush-Clinton-Clinton-Bush-Bush-Obama-Obama-Trump  ... So it will be interesting to see what she thinks of Beto if he ends up getting the nomination.  That said- this 5% (often rural voter) that has decided many past elections is maybe becoming less of a predictor as some states begin to shift demographics. (mom is in NC, which Trump will probably win regardless of the nominee.  But I think WI-MI-PA-AZ-FL will be decided based on the nominee & likely will vote Dem, certainly if Beto is the nominee.. IMO).

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Ill vote for Beto....but he'd better pack the SCOTUS

Yeah. If he's still around by the time my primary state (will be Texas) rolls around, I'll probably vote in the Dem primary for him. Otherwise, Sanders (against my better judgment).

I'm not sure if presidents declaring emergencies and packing courts is a good idea..............

This country hasnt been the same since this god awful Roberts court took GOD out of the campaign finance laws

Okay,

You do realize that Republicans will have an excuse to pack the courts once they are in power, right?

At the very least- assuming RBG holds on 2 years... I certainly want Beto nominating the next SC Justice rather than Trump. Not to mention the 100s of lower court judges.

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It will be really interesting to see how much of a jump Beto gets in polls taken this week. his fundraising numbers are likely to give him more of a bump than he got from his announcement.  His team was smart to delay the numbers- it lowered expectation only to then far exceed them.  The big numbers also reinforce his electability argument a bit (the ability to create excitement, energize voters, etc).

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I referenced this in another thread...But so many people are sort of acting as if Beto isn't capable of Policy details- just because he doesn't have camplete policy manual ready 3 days after his launch... Beto graduated from the same Ivy League University that Obama did- And Obama also started his campaign with more platitudes/ and filled in details as the campaign progressed.  So I think by the end of the campaign, similar to Obama/ Beto will be seen as very competent when it comes to policy manusha.

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I referenced this in another thread...But so many people are sort of acting as if Beto isn't capable of Policy details- just because he doesn't have camplete policy manual ready 3 days after his launch... Beto graduated from the same Ivy League University that Obama did- And Obama also started his campaign with more platitudes/ and filled in details as the campaign progressed.  So I think by the end of the campaign, similar to Obama/ Beto will be seen as very competent when it comes to policy manusha.

An empty suit like Beto is going to get thrashed.

Columbia's average SAT is over 1500 ... and multiple people have said they have seen Beto engaged in and very comfortable in Professorial level/style policy conversations.  He's hardly an empty suit.

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Beto got a big bounce in newest MC poll

And that poll was taken March 11, 2019 to March 17, 2019. So it really didn't register the bounce he will likely get from his official announced... or the bounce he should definitely get from his FundRaising announcement.

I may be wrong- but if the MC Poll had him tied at 8% with Kamala last week... I wouldn't be surprised if polls taken the rest of this week (post announcement kickoff & fundraising report) ... show Beto around 14-15%.

If all this happens- then he's have ample to make a ton of smaller stops across the early primary and battleground states.. & formulate in his policy details.

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I referenced this in another thread...But so many people are sort of acting as if Beto isn't capable of Policy details- just because he doesn't have camplete policy manual ready 3 days after his launch... Beto graduated from the same Ivy League University that Obama did- And Obama also started his campaign with more platitudes/ and filled in details as the campaign progressed.  So I think by the end of the campaign, similar to Obama/ Beto will be seen as very competent when it comes to policy manusha.

This is an advantage that creatures of emotion like Beto, Obama, Macron, Trump, Di Maio, and a whole hoast of others across history, have over creatures of policy. To them, policy is a defensive weapon, used to deflect criticism from rivals, whereas creatures of policy need to use their platform as a offensive and defensive weapon. If the emotional candidate fails to navigate appropriately, they have nothing to stand on and loose all appeal. If they do route well, and it is rather easy to do, the emotional candidate can take a position popular with the voters late and convince you, through their emotion, that they always supported that position.

The thing is, we've seen the flaws with a platitudes-based candidate in this current environment. Hillary lost, Macron's administration is a complete clusterf***, and Trump has accomplished nothing other than giving tax cuts to the rich.

Like her or not Hillary was a major policy wonk- I certainly wouldn't call her a platitude candidate. And for anyone to even include her in the same universe with Trump regarding policy is a best laughable.  

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I may have missed the point also- But Hillary was definitely not a platitude candidate by any measure...(in fact, even in the 2008 campaign, Obama was the candidate criticised at least the 1st half of the campaign, for be light on policy details vs Hillary being very heavy on details)- so maybe I just do not agree with the premise? Unless maybe you are saying Hillary lost because she was a policy details candidate?

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I can't wait for Joe & Mika to eat there words a bit regarding Beto... hopefully as soon as when polls taken this week come out on Sunday or Monday.  They are on Morning Joe today talking about Beto not getting a much of a bump in the MC Poll that came out yesterday that has Beto & Kamala tied in 3rd at 8%.  Yet they failed to mention that the poll was taken all last week- mostly before Beto's announcement mini tour & certainly before his fundraising numbers were released (which will most likely be his biggest catalyst in the polls thus far).  So we will have to wait & see, but I really hope he's up around 15% when the polls taken this week come out.  At any rate- he works harder than any candidate and has more of the X-factor in front of people than any candidate- those 2 taken together will almost ensure a steady rise- especially in Iowa & NH where he can literally meet enough voters over the next year to gain the votes needed to win or finish in the top 2 in the caucus/primary.  He is being far too underestimated... which may be a good thing in the long run.

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Sherrod Brown was just on CNN talking positively about Beto (after they had a phone convo yesterday... Beto apparently called him yesterday to discuss several of Brown's policy initiatives on his way to Michigan & I think Ohio).  Brown said they had a good conversation and he liked him (after talking to him... which I think was his first interaction with Beto).  

That was a really smart move calling Sherrod Brown- and getting on his good side... and getting some policy advice from him. Because yesterday or Sunday (can't remember which) Brown was on CNN as speaking sort  of dismissive of Beto.  Where as today his was smiling and much more positive about Beto.  That's they type instinct and drive that I think will end up being the storyline of how Beto ended up winning the nomination (If he does in fact end up winning a year or so from now).

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It is definitely anecdotal, but I keep hearing about how Sanders' support is unflappable from those he won over in 2016. Clearly, that isn't going to be the case in this wider field. But, these friends of mine in particular seemed to be the type that would support him again, and I'm just surprised that they've embraced Beto so easily. Yes, it probably isn't out of some sense of purity like we see on the internet.

I definitely think there will be many of the Under 25 age Bernie Supporters from 2016 that end up supporting Beto.  In 2016 there were no young candidates to choose from... and the only alternative to Hillary was Bernie.  Where as this year there are young candidates... and younger voters are usually particularly drawn to charisma (Of which Beto certainly has the most).

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Beto should get another (maybe larger) Poll bump from Monday's Fundraising announcement...

I noticed the two latest polls (March 17-18th) and the CNN poll taken (March 14-17) ... will not have captured much (or any at all) of the bump resulting from Beto's $6.1 Million fundraising Announcement...

So if Beto got a 3 point bump from his announcement... hopefully he will get another 3 point bounce from the $6.1M Fundraising Announcement.... in the next round of polls (taken after the Monday Announcement.. which most people wouldn't have seen until Monday night).  Because the Fundraising  announcement seemed to clear many doubts people may have had over the weekend (when much of the polling was taking place) during the Beto onslaught.

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I'm sure the new fundraising Number will be above $10 Million... as they will want to show that he reached the $10M number quicker than Bernie (Which it took him a week to reach).  If he gets close to $15 Million it will really be a great announcement- but $10 Million in less than a week is the bar that will surpass Bernie.

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The name similarity just registered with me... Was Beto named after Bobby Kennedy?
...Robert Francis

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The name similarity just registered with me... Was Beto named after Bobby Kennedy?
...Robert Francis

Wiki links to this article, which talks about his maternal grandfather’s name being Robert V. Williams. Not sure about the Francis part.

Wiki shows that Francis is his dads middle name...

But since he was born in 1972, It seems like the combining 2 different family names of Robert and Francis was almost definitely influenced by Robert Francis Kennedy- considering RFK was assassinated just 4 years prior- therefore his name would be freshly on the minds of everyone.
Especially considering another tidbit... His Step Grandfather was JFK's Secretary of the Navy, Fred Korth. (Korth & his Grandmother married later in life- a 2nd marriage for both).


Mar-A-Lago...
Another Interesting fact on wiki regarding Korth- before marrying Beto's Grandmother, he had a long term relationship with the Post cereal heiress until her death in 73 at which time he was executor of her estate, which included Mar-A-Lago.  At this time the property was willed to the US government to be used as a winter white house & entertaining foreign dignitaries.  Some years later, Carter decided the US didn't need it and returned it to the Post Estate. The Estate decided to sell.  (not sure if Fred Korth was still executor of Mrs Post estate.  Presumably he was married to Beto's Grandmother by that time).  The Estate rejected a $15M offer from Trump.  Then Trump began his sort of underhanded scheme to get the property (see wiki article on Mar-A-Lago).

(the above is all from wiki... its worth reading the Mar-A-Lago wiki article.  Trump was even underhanded in how he acquired the property.  Article also cites the $17Million Insurance claim Trump got for a few trees that had fallen) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mar-a-Lago

The wiki article on Fred Korth also says he was once the divorce lawyer for Lee Harvey Oswald's Step Father (when he divorced Oswald's mother in 1948).  Sounds like Korth was a mini-Forrest Gump.

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So Beto has like 100K less donors like half the number that Sanders. He has more nunber of donors who has maxed out & most of his donors have on an average less to give vs Individual limit.

I don't think how this is bad for Sanders. He has double the number of donors (almost) than Beto & has raised equal odd amount but his supporters have much more money to give & will donate again & again & again.

Sanders had 8.5M odd individual contributions from 2.5M individual donors in 2016. Beto is polling less than half of Sanders & has shown no noticeable bump in the polls YET.

Sanders also has a donor list built from a nationwide Full Presidential Primary campaign.  You would expect him to be even farther ahead regarding donors.

Beto got a 3 pt jump from announcement and will probably get another 3 point bounce from his Announcement of raising over $6 Million.  None of the current polls factor in the fundraising announcement which most people would not have found out about until Monday night.  The $6 Million did a lot to calm the onslaught of attacks that came fly this past weekend (when most of the 3 pt bump polls were taken). So don't be surprised if he is close to 14-15 in the next round of polls. 

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Just saw a clip from Foxnews this morning where they had an ex "Beto Staffer" (no idea in what capacity but he looked around 21-25) on the show trashing Beto (the staffer is now a Bernie Supporter).

So Bernie is teaming up with FOXnews to bash Beto... its pretty clear who other campaigns & other parties fear.  I'm also pretty sure than Beto is the only one that is the target of a Club for Growth attack ad.

On the Plus side- Beto is a little more immune from attacks than most candidates.  Many people will be attracted to Beto for his Charisma & Positive Campaign style- and this type voter tends to not be influenced very much by attacks from other candidates and from Trump & Fox.